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Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

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Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#71

Post by ramesh31 »

LegitShady wrote: post #22
ramesh31 wrote: post #4

Spatial computing will be the dominant paradigm for the vast, vast majority of all history once it is nailed down. The mouse/keyboard/monitor paradigm will be a small footnote in the early history of HCI once it is obliviated. Apple, as always, is showing the rest of the industry the way forward here.

I think the opposite. Even the lack of controllers is a downside for the apple vision. Controllers allow for multiple simultaneous modes of complex inputs that gestures don't and don't rely on being in the view of a camera. Making controllers optional for activities that don't need complex inputs would have been better.

> Making controllers optional for activities that don't need complex inputs would have been better.

This is basically the case though. Vision isn't a walled garden toy device like Quest. It's a full blown general purpose computer with an M2 chip. Any peripheral that works with macOS/iOS will work with it. I have no doubt the third-party controller market will be robust, and I can even see Apple releasing their own for specialized applications like gaming.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#72

Post by scarface_74 »

Apocryphon wrote: post #69
scarface_74 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average selling price of an iPhone is 3x - 4x that of an Android. I think iPhones are doing pretty well. The ASP of Macs are also higher. Apple hasn’t competed on price - ever. I know the HN crowd has an income that skews higher than most. Why is it so crazy to think that there might be people in the world that will drop $3800 on something because they can? I can imagine some of my coworkers (and maybe even mysel…

Nice, numbers smaller than the ones I hypothesized. Apple doesn’t compete on price, but it’s the difference between the next iPhone or the next Mac Studio. So will the Vision Pro be a pilot device for a segment specific to that minority of affluent upper-earners as a fun toy? Or is it really meant to bring AR/VR to the masses and fundamentally transform computing as we know it?

If it’s next Mac Studio, why is that a bad thing? The Macs market share is next to nothing worldwide.

At a worldwide scale, the iPhone is a device for a minority of affluent upper earners as a toy. The iPhone only has around a 15% share worldwide.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#73

Post by Ancapistani »

holler wrote: post #31
retskrad wrote: post #3

The Vision Pro is probably the most advanced consumer tech available and it's by far the best AR/VR headset. However, it's DOA. It's going to flop and Apple knows it but they know that they need to release it now to let developers and users show them what it's true purpose will be. The real deal will be the AR glasses, not these big ski goggles that nobody wants to wear.

I admit that I thought the same thing about Apple Watch and it seems to be doing quite well these days.

Me too. I'm a bit of a luddite when it comes to the things I carry every day - I love things like fountain pens, high-end knives, and quality compact tools.

... and yet my beautiful, fully mechanical, self-winding watch has sat on my nightstand for the past year and a half, only having been moved about once a week when I wind it and reposition it so the jewels don't lose their lubrication because I'm not wearing it. My Series 7 Apple Watch has fully supplanted it.

Likewise, I have dozens of very nice fountain pens, both new and restored vintage, that I now rarely use - I bought a reMarkable, and it's taken over that role in my workflow. I still carry a pocket fountain pen, but it only gets used to sign receipts and such.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#74

Post by Ancapistani »

ako wrote: post #55
bee_rider wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The keyboard is hard to beat, in terms of precise (for a human), high bandwidth (for a human) input. Maybe AI will get so good that we won’t need to be precise and high bandwidth. Hell, maybe it will just guess exactly what we want based on grunting and pointing. But we’re a ways off from there. Mouses and monitors, I could imagine losing.

Speech recognition is getting to a point where keyboards can be replaced for certain cases. And there are many situations where keyboards are not an option.

Speech recognition is only viable today when the user is in quiet surroundings and not near other people. You can't use it while you have a conversation with someone, for instance. Like it or not, a large part of today's device usage is concurrent with other "meatspace" interactions.

It may be possible if someone implements very good subvocalization recognition. It's possible - I've used military headsets that allow near-silent audio communication - but it takes practice to use effectively, and I really don't see it as a viable mass-market tech.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#75

Post by mekkkkkk »

notaustinpowers wrote: post #19
dpflan wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate on the product line evolution you are envisioning?

I envision the Vision Pro as a consumer testbed of tech while they work to miniaturize the technology. IE: LIDAR in iPhone 12 Pro, ARKit to transition devs into thinking about AR applications, etc. Raise to wake on iPhone 6S to prepare for FaceID in the iPhone X. I can envision an Apple Vision Air 4 or 5 years from now that's a pair of glasses with transparent micro OLED lenses. OpticID technology embedded in the int…

The problem is that society is already used to, and largely bored by, VR. For most consumers this will just appear as the latest and greatest in what is ultimately a meh novelty. With a prohibitively huge price tag to boot.

There will absolutely be some enthusiasts that will enjoy this (and later versions of it) product immensely. There will be well-off early adopters that treat it as a shiny new toy. But unless they release a "Vision S" with a ~$1k price tag, this is probably not going anywhere.

The gap that needs to be crossed to reach that value proposition is absolutely massive.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#76

Post by LegitShady »

ramesh31 wrote: post #71
LegitShady wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the opposite. Even the lack of controllers is a downside for the apple vision. Controllers allow for multiple simultaneous modes of complex inputs that gestures don't and don't rely on being in the view of a camera. Making controllers optional for activities that don't need complex inputs would have been better.

> Making controllers optional for activities that don't need complex inputs would have been better. This is basically the case though. Vision isn't a walled garden toy device like Quest. It's a full blown general purpose computer with an M2 chip. Any peripheral that works with macOS/iOS will work with it. I have no doubt the third-party controller market will be robust, and I can even see Apple releasing their own fo…

it will be a walled garden ios device, instead of a "walled garden toy device like quest", which could be hooked up to a PC.

And there's no reason to assume random peripherals will work. Apple hasn't said it, no one has shown any, and there's no reason to think apple will let random third parties make compatible devices while they at the same time try to make sure you use guaranteed apple usb-c cables to get regular data rates from their devices.

Basically, it will be a walled garden device (btw the quest could still play steamvr) just ios instead of oculus/meta, and the lack of controllers isn't some special achievement that is empowering third party creators, its a bad decision on apple's part because they simplified the experience to the point where complex interaction is worse.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#77

Post by voisin »

thunky wrote: post #56
dev_tty01 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talking is great. Unfortunately much of the verbal spewing here on HN the last few days is just condemning, calling it stupid, making blanket statements like "no one will buy this" or other forms of diatribe with only personal bias as a basis for opinion. Many of the people criticizing clearly didn't see the presentations. Is there non-trivial risk of market failure? Of course. They are trying to create a computation…

> They are trying to create a computation and entertainment focused AR device. That is new. It's not that new. It's very similar in use case to Meta, which many also think is a major airball.

Many people wouldn’t buy a Meta product if it would save their life. Airball by Meta doesn’t mean anything with respect to the market potential.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#78

Post by pointlessone »

This feels like contrarianism overdone.

Philosophical rambling that completely fails to consider practical side of the product. Can you with your inner eye watch a movie? Will it be the same movie as in the cinema? Can you with your inner eye see a topological map of your city? Will it be as accurate as any actual map?

The virtual camera in our head can only present what’s already in our mind. And as accurately as our mind allows. It can not present whatever other people want to show or what requires greater precision than our brain can muster. I’d be thoroughly impressed if you could have anything close to a spreadsheet in your mind representing financial reports from the past decade with the same precision.

Regarding presence. I was very excited about a virtual big screen in a forest. OP presents it as excessive and utterly pointless but have you been to a cinema ever? I, for one, almost always get distracted by strangers rustling their popcorn or staring into their phone at full brightness two rows down. And at home I can’t get imax-equivalent size screen.

One can criticize Vision Pro (and AR/VR in general) for its dorkiness, price, disconnect, or whatever but it’s completely wrong to dismiss it as absolutely useless. There are very real use cases that can not be fulfilled or closely emulated either by other types of devices or by other practices that don’t use any tools.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#79

Post by whywhywhywhy »

voisin wrote: post #77
thunky wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They are trying to create a computation and entertainment focused AR device. That is new. It's not that new. It's very similar in use case to Meta, which many also think is a major airball.

Many people wouldn’t buy a Meta product if it would save their life. Airball by Meta doesn’t mean anything with respect to the market potential.

They sold plenty of them, 20 million which is by all metrics a success.

It’s getting those people to put them on beyond the initial honeymoon period that’s seemingly the issue. Everyone I know who bought one raved about it and considers it a great experience it's just the barrier to charging something then putting it on your face is really huge.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#80

Post by surgical_fire »

dev_tty01 wrote: post #41
whywhywhywhy wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right why talk about anything ever everyone just sit in silence.

Talking is great. Unfortunately much of the verbal spewing here on HN the last few days is just condemning, calling it stupid, making blanket statements like "no one will buy this" or other forms of diatribe with only personal bias as a basis for opinion. Many of the people criticizing clearly didn't see the presentations. Is there non-trivial risk of market failure? Of course. They are trying to create a computation…

> Talking is great. Unfortunately much of the verbal spewing here on HN the last few days is just condemning, calling it stupid, making blanket statements like "no one will buy this" or other forms of diatribe with only personal bias as a basis for opinion.

Then let's talk, but only if the talking is to gush about Apple and its toys.

If you are negative, just shut up.

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