Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's not going to happen, salaries are depressed and are not keeping up with inflation by a large margin.
The balance on an existing loan doesn’t increase with inflation, though.
Germany Falls into Recession
71–80 of 203 posts
Re: Germany Falls into Recession
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…
How the f can you have such a big mortgage, with a variable interest rate, and sleep at night ? I'm french, and everyone I know has a fixed interest rate. dont know if it is mandatory, but God, I am so glad that my interest rate will never spike.
Average 30 year mortgage is paid off in 11 years.
Re: Germany Falls into Recession
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
The energy cost might be the cause of that interest rate though.
Not from what I know. The high energy costs are due to a effective and possible felt scarcity which occured at the beginning of the war in Ucraine. The energy companies are now planing to reduce the costs with as much as 25% from next month, since the marked is now flooded with gas and renewables ( a lof of new wind parks and solar installation will go online the next month ). I honestly I do not know why the interes…
Re: Germany Falls into Recession
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
True, but every system has flaws. For the most part the Euro and ECB has been a benefit for every country in it. Even a country like Greece. As bad as the single currency was for Greece, outside the EU and Eurozone, Greece could very likely have been closer to Venezuela with even fewer resource wealth to benefit from.
Other way around. The euro has been a net loss for all but 2 countries
Re: Germany Falls into Recession
#75Actually the biggest blow was not the energy costs, but the interest rates. They went from 1-2% now at 4-5, even 6% for real-estate ( new building and old ) while the prices are still at last year level. For other types of financing, I had a "good" offer which went to 12% interest. I felt like in a 3rd world country. With such expensive money, nothing will be done. The construction economy is really going dow from mi…
Most countries raised interest rates to the same level but they are not in recessesion. I don't know what does it says about Germany's economy... At least in Canada I believe the recession was averted by increasing immigration.
But there was also a rather steep hike in (mostly greed-caused) inflation of everyday goods and energy prices, official overall rate was slightly above 10%, but for foodstuffs it went above 20% inflation. At the same time, wages didn't keep up, raises were below 10%, often below 5%. Inflation-corrected disposable income went down roughly 10%. So consumers also have less money to spend on their day-to-day needs and of course reallocated all the spending on "extras" (like luxury items, organic foods, leisure), to the basics (energy and less expensive basic nutrition). Which can be seen e.g. at energy providers raking in the profits while e.g. gastronomy is in a bad place.
Re: Germany Falls into Recession
#76Actually the biggest blow was not the energy costs, but the interest rates. They went from 1-2% now at 4-5, even 6% for real-estate ( new building and old ) while the prices are still at last year level. For other types of financing, I had a "good" offer which went to 12% interest. I felt like in a 3rd world country. With such expensive money, nothing will be done. The construction economy is really going dow from mi…
I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…
Since the mortgage is fixed, these wage gains don't even need to be "real" (positive when inflation adjusted).
> I also wonder if people who are in a position to sell our build houses will try (and maybe even succeed?) to sit this out or whether we will see a downward trend in prices again.
You can't time the market. It's so difficult to predict what is going to happen in the future with any degree of certainty. Also, where are you going to live in the mean time?
Lots of people were burned in 2014-now by assuming the housing market was going to "collapse any minute now" then watching the exact opposite happen. It's as if they thought 2008 was some kind of regular occurrence and not a black swan event.
Re: Germany Falls into Recession
#77China is outcompeting Germany as a manufacturer of high value goods, particularly cars [1][2]. Last year it overtook Germany as the second biggest car exporter. In the first three months of this year, China has surpassed Japan to become the world's top car exporter for the first time. This is due to its strength in EVs (while Germany's strength is in ICEs). Volkswagen holds a 2% share of the Chinese EV market while t…
Re: Germany Falls into Recession
#78China is outcompeting Germany as a manufacturer of high value goods, particularly cars [1][2]. Last year it overtook Germany as the second biggest car exporter. In the first three months of this year, China has surpassed Japan to become the world's top car exporter for the first time. This is due to its strength in EVs (while Germany's strength is in ICEs). Volkswagen holds a 2% share of the Chinese EV market while t…
Re: Germany Falls into Recession
#79They shouldn't be shutting down nuclear. Build more nuclear reactors. That will provide more clean energy and a lot of jobs. Modernize the grid. Make it a smarter grid that is more resilient to harm. These projects pay for themselves quickly and are easy to finance with how much wealth Germany has.
There's no way that's gonna happen unfortunately. The greens have absolutely dropped the ball in terms of big picture goals. We've been brainwashed into thinking nuclear power is dangerous and the problem of waste is bigger than the problem of having non renewable, oil based, energy. In hindsight I wouldn't be surprised if the oil lobby had a hand in that.
Re: Germany Falls into Recession
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US is not getting poorer nor is inflation still out of control
> The US is not getting poorer then why am I being asked to bail out a generation's college loans? then why is food bank use at an all time high? then why are more six-figure earners reporting to be living paycheck-to-paycheck? then why is personal credit card debt at an all time high?