I see two possible motivations: 1) he is truly scared AI can become dangerous and try to distribute the responsibility to more people 2) he anticipates that there will be some regulation anyway, and when that's the case, it is better to be involved and act friendly.
Here as a post on his blog from 8 years ago: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-software-revolution "...development of an AI that could end human life may only require a few hundred people in an office building anywhere in the world, with no equipment other than laptops. The new existential threats won’t require the resources of nations to produce." and "The fact that we don’t have serious efforts underway to combat thre…
Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
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Re: Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
#72Why do we need to regulate ai?
Re: Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
> plausible dangers Name three. There are 50,000 gun related deaths in the United States per year, are any of them a bigger threat than gun violence? I struggle to find a single thing AI can do, sans being hooked up to nuclear weapons and time travelling robots with german accents, that's even imaginatively more dangerous than what this country already allows and decides doesn't require useful regulations. I'm sorry…
So, because we haven't been able to resolve a highly political and divisive issue (gun deaths), that means we shouldn't try to resolve other dangerous issues? > I struggle to find a single thing AI can do How about job loss? If AI can do what proponents say, then it's easy to see that a large amount of job loss will result. If even 20% of people can no longer earn a living, people will die.
This is called creative destruction, and it's not even remotely a new problem created by this particular technology, it's a constant and ongoing mechanism of market capitalism by which technology streamlines or improves something that then requires less labor to accomplish.
When the 400k+ telephone switch operators lost their jobs to digitization, it didn't cause a mass die off of humans, and while I won't say it was a zero bad consequences event, they mostly found other work, work that was probably more interesting and more productive. We certainly could have regulated telephone digitization to prevent this "danger" and instead employed 4.5 million people, or about 3 percent of the labor force, to operate the phone network today as it would have existed technologically in the 1970s, but I'm happy we skipped the scare mongering and went the digitization route, which probably also was a prerequisite for the internet to be able to be used by.. users (which mostly used digital phone services via modems to connect). Would even consumer internet access exist today if they decided to regulate the "danger" of losing analog phone operator jobs?
Either way, I fail to see how allowing only licensed and government regulated companies to work on machine learning will do anything to improve anyone's job prospects moving forward, as increasingly onerous requirements created by people that like to say things like "the internet is a bunch of tubes" make it so only a few rent-seeking monopolies will be able to do anything (legally) with the technology.
I'm not 100% against government regulation, but it's early, things are relatively benign so far (sans self driving cars), let's wait until there's some actual non-sci-fi concerns that emerge and then tackle them as specific things to regulate, rather than wrapping the whole thing into a giant regulatory framework that incorrectly calls it AI before we even learn what the problems are going to be.
Re: Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here as a post on his blog from 8 years ago: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-software-revolution "...development of an AI that could end human life may only require a few hundred people in an office building anywhere in the world, with no equipment other than laptops. The new existential threats won’t require the resources of nations to produce." and "The fact that we don’t have serious efforts underway to combat thre…
But his existence as a head of an AI company makes him a terrible choice for any recommendations, full stop. He could be 100% genuine but we can't trust him because we have an antagonistic system.
Also, sitting right next to him was Gary Marcus, who doesn't have a dog in the fight as far as I know, and he agreed with a most of the recommendations.
Re: Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is Sam Altman the answer to regulating AI? If yes, why?
If you want an effective solution to regulate AI, then it makes sense to involve more than one person, because the task is beyond the capability of any one person, because it’s controlled and used by billions of people. Wittgenstein rolls in his grave at this one, lol
Re: Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is just more openAI marketing at work. ChatGPT is a chatbot, and it’s good at language for sure, but it isn’t some huge breakthrough that people were expecting would take a century. Its literally just a fancy RNN which we’ve had for awhile
No offense but this comment just shows a lack of understanding of the development that's happened with transformers. "Fancy RNN" is a pretty ridiculous assertion. And no, researchers didn't expect what GPT-3/4 has been shown to do to be around the corner at all. GPT's aren't chatbots. That's just a neat natural consequence that's happened. They're machines that reason, understand and follow instructions in plain lang…
They are not machines that reason, they are approximators. It’s all just token matching based on data we’ve fed it. Further it didn’t happen over night but through successive improvements and at no point was the next improvement considered some infeasible thing.
Seems to me maybe you’ve bought into the hype here, and are confusing that with reality.
Re: Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
No offense but this comment just shows a lack of understanding of the development that's happened with transformers. "Fancy RNN" is a pretty ridiculous assertion. And no, researchers didn't expect what GPT-3/4 has been shown to do to be around the corner at all. GPT's aren't chatbots. That's just a neat natural consequence that's happened. They're machines that reason, understand and follow instructions in plain lang…
Nah not really, there’s just a lot of hyperbole going around right now. They are RNNs, the difference is they have a layer/layers being fed back instead of a single neuron. That’s a fancy recurrent network. They are not machines that reason, they are approximators. It’s all just token matching based on data we’ve fed it. Further it didn’t happen over night but through successive improvements and at no point was the n…
And meaningless distinction of the year award goes to..
"It's not real [insert property]" is not an intelligent argument. By all means, divine the way to distinguish results of the two. After all, what kind of important distinction can't be distinguished by results?
>Further it didn’t happen over night but through successive improvements
The only difference between GPT-3 and GPT-2 was scale. They didn't even change the tokenizer until 4. There were no "successful improvements" to smoothen the massive gap in capabilities between the two. So to say that was expected just shows more lack of knowledge here.
Re: Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
So, because we haven't been able to resolve a highly political and divisive issue (gun deaths), that means we shouldn't try to resolve other dangerous issues? > I struggle to find a single thing AI can do How about job loss? If AI can do what proponents say, then it's easy to see that a large amount of job loss will result. If even 20% of people can no longer earn a living, people will die.
> How about job loss? This is called creative destruction, and it's not even remotely a new problem created by this particular technology, it's a constant and ongoing mechanism of market capitalism by which technology streamlines or improves something that then requires less labor to accomplish. When the 400k+ telephone switch operators lost their jobs to digitization, it didn't cause a mass die off of humans, and wh…
True. But this technology (again, if the proponents are correct) threatens to do it on a truly unprecedented scale. It was bad enough -- barely tolerable in some cases -- in history. Getting it even worse seems like something nobody would want, let alone cheerlead.
I am deeply, deeply concerned that there are people willing to gamble with the lives of innocent others (not to mention society itself) like this. It's something we need to be addressing now, before it happens.
Re: Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you really not see how this will automate harm at massive parallelized scale? Even if you're nearsighted you can see how the internet will in short order be rendered useless by fake real-time interaction and digital malice. Look at how much automated ssh poking you get on an IP address. Look at how much email you receive without a comprehensive spam filter (it's much more than shows up in your Gmail spam folder).…
We already get spammed and hammered by bots without ai so? Did we manage to somehow regulate away existing systems to stop this? No, so why put ai behind a bunch of regulation. Maybe in a dystopia we have ai judges...wait he already have judges using shitty software for sentencing. You want to further regulate what I can build in my basement?
No, but other countries have. We just don't do regulation because we're America or something (and because the FCC has been gutted). No European country has the same level of spam phone calls that we do.
Re: Sam Altman isn’t the answer to regulating artificial intelligence
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's certainly possible. I can't read minds. But his statements on these issues sound more to me like "Yes, this is really dangerous stuff and we're taking a huge risk in developing it, but too bad! You can't stop us."
His point of view, that he's stated on the Lex Friedman podcast, is that AGI is potentially dangerous and inevitable, but safer to develop as soon as possible and try to make it safe by studying real-world models empirically, rather than waiting until computing power is much greater and risking a "fast takeoff". I don't know that I agree with this strategy, but I can respect that it's a consistent viewpoint. So what…