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This time, it feels different

nadh.in

71–80 of 249 posts

Re: This time, it feels different

#71
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This requires care as it may only require a few details or other metadata like when/where one asked to narrow down who they're talking about. Considering ChatGPT leaks and hallucinations I would hope folks in law and medicine are being very careful.

the firm's compliance officers will be demanding that the services are completely blocked and that any use whatsoever is a disciplinary offence (in their view: removing the risk almost entirely)

In my firm, it is the contrary. We are advised to remove any personal data in our queries and double check the output. We are encouraged to use chatgpt/bing on a daily basis to learn it. Our firm is also planning to purchase an LLM that will work locally.

Re: This time, it feels different

#72
post #40
post #4

Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…

Your timeline is interesting. I've heard people complain about nothing new happening. So I like seeing it laid out like that, so regularly every five years. Then not for fourteen. I still think it's rubbish for people to demand two revolutions a decade or they get bored but I understand the scope a bit better.

People have been flailing around for the "next thing" for a while. First there was crypto, then the metaverse, but now it seems like it will be generative AI. The real world uses I've seen people using it for already outstrip crypto or the metaverse.

Re: This time, it feels different

#73
post #5

There are definitely interesting times ahead. What surprised me with ChatGPT is the impact of the interface. The quality of the responses are essential up to some threshold, but the chat interface arguably had an even bigger impact. I also remember having the same questions in my last job (in logistics) where potential customers wanted to know how we use AI. This sometimes seemed more important than whether our resul…

I was hacking around with GPT-3 just a couple months before ChatGPT came out and had this feeling of "omg I found something that the world is largely sleeping on"

Then ChatGPT came out and now that's all anybody ever talks about.

Re: This time, it feels different

#74
He (and most people on HN) are still underestimating the impact of this.

Everything points at AI soon becoming far more intelligent than any human. That's not science fiction about the remote future in a hundred years. We are talking about something in the order of ten years. We are actually at the brink of the "technological singularity". It's happening.

It's happening.

Re: This time, it feels different

#75
post #39

> I have come across people who do programming, legal work, business, accountancy and finance, fashion design, architecture, graphic design, research, teaching, cooking, travel planning, event management etc., all of whom have started using the same tool, ChatGPT if I found out my lawyer/account/tax advisor/broker had fed my privileged information into ChatGPT I'd be reporting them to their regulator and they'd be st…

You can license the model and run it on your own hardware. I guess a lot of LLM business see this as the profitable end goal (the free version is free but not secure, the paid version is expensive and secure!).

Re: This time, it feels different

#76
Will current developments in generative AI eventually result in a social revolution in human affairs?

Technology has played a role in similar transitions in the past. Mechanized agricultural production mosly eliminated the need for a large agricultural workforce for producing staple crops, a workforce that historically was organized and controlled via systems like serfdom and slavery, which were mostly eliminated as mechanization spread. Domestic household technology (washing machines, vacuums, electricity, etc) ended the need for a household to employ domestic servants and facilitated the entrance of women into the workforce, with associated loosening of societal gender role expectations.

Machine learning systems might play a similar role in enabling automation of the industrial factory system, creating a system in which a few workers manage complex workflows with all basic tasks done by highly adaptable robots. Generative AI appears poised to eliminate a similar amount of basic tedious work in the white-collar world of documentation creation, legal research, all secretarial-type tasks, boilerplate code generation, etc.

The real question in societal terms will be whether or not the fruits of all this labor elimination will end up controlled by a tiny minority of the human population. If so, that could plausibly lead to societal pressure to completely restructure the investment capital system of wealth accumulation and concentration, i.e. AI might cause socialism to become more popular.

However, the notion that AI systems will be making the fundamental choices (going to war, creating a national constitution, writing and voting on legislation, forming a new business entity, etc.) seems farfetched at present.

Re: This time, it feels different

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've also lived through many technologies that failed to achieve mainstream adoption despite demonstrating comparable levels of hype.

I'm constantly resisting the urge to write "MongoDB is webscale" whenever these threads show up. For the uninitiated: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1636198 . The original video is gone but it lives on YouTube: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b2F-DItXtZs .

MongoDB is still around.

Re: This time, it feels different

#78
post #6
post #4

Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…

> Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Is that really true? The two largest corporations in the world by market cap are Apple and Microsoft, both founded in the 1970s.

Both Apple and Microsoft have had ups and downs since then. Even IBM, Intel, have been through ups and downs even if they are probably down forever now.

Apple had the obvious comeback, but even Microsoft had to reinvent itself away from windows.

Re: This time, it feels different

#79
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> computers, the internet, etc came and brought tons of wealth, and didn't raise the standard of living Huh?? What world are you living in where the standard of living hasn't increased in the last 50 years?

I'd say that would depend on one's point of view in a couple of key respects: - Are we just discussing the first-world middle class? Obviously if we extend our scope to all of humanity there have been remarkable jumps in standards of living. - Does the idea of 'standard of living' include only access to goods, services, and information or also intangibles like access to safety and (more pertinently to this particular…

> my sense of security in said standard of living has taken a nosedive

While it's hard to say, that might be the news you read, rather than reality.

Re: This time, it feels different

#80
post #58
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple was absolutely an industry leader before the 2000s. Which leaders exactly have been knocked off their perches?

That's not the question was asked though. Sure, they were an industry leader in the 70s/80s but in the period 1990-2005? It's hard to claim they really were. It's one of the rare examples of a fallen giant getting back on their feet, most just slowly dissolve over a few decades. AT&T is the only other such example that comes to mind.

> AT&T is the only other such example that comes to mind.

If you're talking about the current AT&T, then I'd argue it's not a great example. The relationship between old AT&T and the company currently calling itself AT&T is tenuous. It would be more accurate to say the brand name survived, because it has good name recognition value.

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