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Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

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Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#71

Post by cemerick »

qup wrote: post #41
cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

I haven't been to SF and therefore don't have an opinion. How is one story really highlighting something? This is just one anecdote where it wasn't what people expected, it's not proof they're wrong. (I have no idea if they are, it's just a bad argument)

The story contradicts what so many here took as a given, that Lee was a victim of stochastic violence in SF. The highlighting is in revealing that so many were wrong in applying their biases to the original news, and then using that to leverage into e.g. condemnations of the city in general.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#72

Post by dsfyu404ed »

interactivecode wrote: post #56
pc86 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Perhaps in SF the victims of violent crime are in a higher social bracket than in other cities? Aka more rich people are the target in SF compared to other cities where mostly lower class people are effected?

That's exactly what it is. White collar upper middle class types are more exposed to it relatively (not necessarily absolutely) in SF than in other cities. Even if the actual odds of being victim of a violent crime are lower overall they're still higher per crime and people still feel more exposed because the market shares of the various things that make up the crime pie are very different in SF than in other cities.

In Chicago, Baltimore, all those other cities techies turn up their nose at for their crime rates you might get shot in a convenience store robbery, you might get knifed by a mugger but the overwhelming majority of the violence is drug dealers and users and distributors settling scores amongst themselves (because they can't use the courts to do it for them).

Contrast with SF where the overall amount (overall or per capita) of violent crime is lower but it is much, much more concentrated toward the randomly targeted crime affecting people not already involved in activity beyond the law types of creimes meaning that your odds of getting shot in a convenience store robbery or knifed by a mugger are higher in SF than a city of equivalent violent crime rates per capita that has a more normal looking crime pie chart.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#73

Post by kaycebasques »

pc86 wrote: post #30
cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

[flagged]

> objectively one of the most violent cities in the country

The news article (and many comments in this thread) says the exact opposite:

> San Francisco is home to much in the way of visible public misery, unnerving street behavior and overt drug-use. Its property crime rate has long been high, and the police clearance rate for property crimes has long been minimal. But the city’s violent crime rate is at a near-historic low and is lower than that in most mid-to-large-sized cities.

Property crime is sky-high, sure. Violent crime is a totally different category. It is important not to mix them up.

2021 homicide rate across comparable cities:

St Louis 66.5 Detroit 47.9 Phila 34.8 Milwaukee 33.9 ... Austin 8.2 SF 6.9 ... NY 5.5

https://abc7news.com/amp/san-francisco-crime-rate-bob-lee-sf...

We can talk about other types of violent crime (maybe the other ones are higher, I haven't looked into them recently) but let's at least stick to the well-defined categories and since you said it's "objectively one of the most violent" then we should be able to back that up with stats in each category: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-...

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#74

Post by rootusrootus »

cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

Thanks for that. I admit to buying the narrative. Part of that is because my nearest city of any substance is Portland, and it's not especially violent. SF does look more violent compared to Portland, but objectively SF is actually just average or less. Lots of big cities are more violent[0].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#75

Post by f38zf5vdt »

tsunamifury wrote: post #57
tedivm wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're objectively wrong. > San Francisco recorded 56 homicides each in 2022 and 2021, up over 36% from 2019, when there were 41 homicides, according to police department data. Despite the increase, the number of homicides in San Francisco is well below that of other cities of a similar size, data from the Major Cities Police Chiefs Association shows. > Indianapolis, for example, witnessed 271 homicides in 2021 and 2…

Thanks for the numbers. On the street except for murder cops won’t even take your report anymore. The numbers reflect nothing in SF and residents know it.

Isn't it this way in almost every major urban US area? I was in St. Louis for a conference and got robbed, after I reported it to police and told them I had the current location of the suspects because they stole my phone and location services was still on, the police laughed at me and told me "what do you want us to do, go bust some doors down?", then instructed me to file a report but explained it might not be worth it to even bother doing so because there was almost a 0% chance of my stolen goods being returned.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#76

Post by jjulius »

tsunamifury wrote: post #57
tedivm wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're objectively wrong. > San Francisco recorded 56 homicides each in 2022 and 2021, up over 36% from 2019, when there were 41 homicides, according to police department data. Despite the increase, the number of homicides in San Francisco is well below that of other cities of a similar size, data from the Major Cities Police Chiefs Association shows. > Indianapolis, for example, witnessed 271 homicides in 2021 and 2…

Thanks for the numbers. On the street except for murder cops won’t even take your report anymore. The numbers reflect nothing in SF and residents know it.

>The numbers reflect nothing in SF and residents know it.

Former, recent resident with a penchant for late-night dancing (read: frequently ended up in "seedy" areas in the middle of the night) chiming in. Never felt as though I was in danger while out and about, day or night, and never felt that SF was a more violent city than others.

But thank you for speaking for everyone.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#77

Post by astrange »

Teever wrote: post #44
eclipxe wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except the alleged perpetrator doesn’t live job SF, so your argument falls apart. They’re from Emeryville.

Look all I'm saying is that maybe instead of assuming the problems in the streets of SF are caused by degenerate hobos that maybe, just maybe, they're caused by degenerate tech bros. Like who has the real power in this situation? the hobos or the techbros? I don't expect hobos to be able to fix their situation, but I expect the people with money and resources to be able to. The fact that they don't shows that they do…

Tech bros don't have political power, they're too busy working. California political power is held by rich retired people, children of upper class families, and landlords.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#78

Post by photochemsyn »

cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

It's certainly true that people should never jump on a story to promote their own ideological concerns (e.g. San Francisco is pretty unsafe at night in many places), when the details of the story are unknown.

However, homicide stats don't tell the whole story about a city. There are many areas in SF where a resident would never go at night (or often during the day) because of the large numbers of drug addicts and homeless people. This means businesses in those areas have a hard time surviving. In terms of property crimes (in which violent assault is not involved) SF is leading the pack, at least in the top five. The lower rate of homicide is probably also linked to California's stricter gun laws compared to Texas and Florida, and also, many homicide victims are homeless, see LA:

https://xtown.la/2022/06/08/murders-people-experiencing-home...

The only plausible long-term solution is improved housing, more jobs, public health care, better education etc. This would require expenditure of public funds on a national scale (you can't fix this city by city, or state by state, because people migrate), i.e. increased taxes on the wealthy and a redistribution of military-industrial spending to domestic infrastructure of various sorts.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#79

Post by [deleted] »

cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

[deleted]

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#80

Post by lisasays »

pc86 wrote: post #30
cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

[flagged]

Based on what?

It's murder rate is well below the median among cities larger than 200k.

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