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America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

economist.com

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Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#71

Post by distances »

HarryHirsch wrote: post #50
1270018080 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia invaded Ukraine for basically no reason, it still happened. If you have enough fervent nationalism in the population and an authoritarian government, lunacy isn't going to stop anything.

Russia invaded Ukraine over control of the ports of Sebastopol and Odessa, and over control of the Varangian Road from the Black Sea to Moscow. These are immediate national security concerns. There were those of us who looked at the Eastern expansion of NATO with great concern, a proxy war was going to be fought, and Europe was going to have to deal with the refugees and the political instability.

You're repeating Russian talking points. NATO isn't "expanding", independent countries are joining NATO as a safeguard against Russian aggression.

And calling this a proxy war is, of course, the usual Russian excuse for why they are doing so badly against Ukraine. They really want to imagine that they're against NATO instead.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#72

Post by ianburrell »

skinnymuch wrote: post #43
ianburrell wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that it will end. I totally understand China wanting to be superpower. They seem to think that the US is coercing everybody, including allies, by force. They think that if US is defeated and they can replace them or at least coerce the local area. I wish they kept using soft power, that was working well for…

> My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that it will end. Is this bravado any different than what Europeans and Americans regularly do? Look at the imperialism and colonizing. Why can’t the west leave the world alone? Of course Taiwan and Ukraine are serious circumstances but so are Yemen, Congo, Palestine, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Afghanistan, Ira…

I agree that the West has done terrible things. In fact, I think China would have success with global south exploiting that. China should learn the lesson not to conquer people, not that they need to act the same way. China should go do its thing, making stuff and helping other countries, and only fight when they need to. The way for China to show they are the strongest and best is to give Taiwan its independence.

My worry is that China thinks it needs to invade Taiwan to show they are superpower and knock down the current superpower. Which will just create an endless war, look at the Cold War or WW2. I have theory that authoritarian government produces this dominance thinking, combined with misconception about how the US rules.

The West is half of the world economy. In the middle of the war, no ships will sail to China since it would be too risky. In addition, the US and allies can easily blockade China completely. Another consequence is that invasion will destroy the fabs in Taiwan and nobody will get chips for a while.

I was debating with someone from China that was afraid of US invading mainland China, and we were all pointing out that was impossible. He was talking about scenarios of China attacking US mainland, we pointed out that was unlikely and deeply unwise. He couldn't handle that China would likely be attacked and couldn't respond. But that is limited war works to prevent nuclear war.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#73

Post by musicale »

woooooo wrote: post #62
sb618 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I definitely appreciate that inflammatory articles might push us closer to war but it also seems rather dangerous to cover up anything that suggests war. That feels a bit reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain before WWII.

It's been entirely media driven since 2018 on the topic. Nobody cared about China before then, and they wouldn't care now if it weren't for the constant hype. Anyone recall even seeing the acronym "CCP" in print before 2018 or so? Then suddenly it's ubiquitous and everyone knows it.

I gather you've never seen the print edition of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times

or suffered through endless advertisements for Shen Yun.

Edit: according to above, they've pivoted somewhat in terms of their political stance and direction since 2016.

Apparently Doctor Strange 2 ran afoul of censors for neglecting to scrub out an Epoch Times newspaper box that appeared briefly in a scene shot on location in New York.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#74

Post by ianburrell »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #63
ianburrell wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is impossible for Taiwan to be proxy war. China will be able to blockade the island and probably achieve air superiority. There is no way to supply Taiwan without getting shot at and involved. China is getting close to being ready for invasion. China has built a lot in the last decade, they built an entire modern navy. Amphibious invasions are difficult, and it is possible that they are impossible in modern world.

That isn't true. The Ryukyus are right next door to Taiwan, and that is where much of America's strength in East Asia is. The reason the USA is not in Taiwan is simply that they don't need to be.

US doesn’t need to be in Taiwan to fight the war. Taiwan can handle the ground fighting if it comes to that. The US will fight in air and sea, and Okinawa and Guam will be main bases. Taiwan itself will be too dangerous although US bases might be targets. If they can get through, better to send weapons than US troops.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#75

Post by woooooo »

musicale wrote: post #73
woooooo wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been entirely media driven since 2018 on the topic. Nobody cared about China before then, and they wouldn't care now if it weren't for the constant hype. Anyone recall even seeing the acronym "CCP" in print before 2018 or so? Then suddenly it's ubiquitous and everyone knows it.

I gather you've never seen the print edition of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times or suffered through endless advertisements for Shen Yun. Edit: according to above, they've pivoted somewhat in terms of their political stance and direction since 2016. Apparently Doctor Strange 2 ran afoul of censors for neglecting to scrub out an Epoch Times newspaper box that appeared briefly in a scene shot on location i…

I have. Shen yun are Taiwanese and really big on the KMT above and beyond the typical dance group, while epoch times is run by Falun gong people. Both dislike the ccp for their own obvious insider reasons. (Epoch times pivot to trumpland is an obvious play for them, works way better than natsec libs).

I wouldn't credit them for mainstream media's turn, though. We need a big bad and afghan goat farmers weren't cutting it.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#76

Post by fomine3 »

woooooo wrote: post #62
sb618 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I definitely appreciate that inflammatory articles might push us closer to war but it also seems rather dangerous to cover up anything that suggests war. That feels a bit reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain before WWII.

It's been entirely media driven since 2018 on the topic. Nobody cared about China before then, and they wouldn't care now if it weren't for the constant hype. Anyone recall even seeing the acronym "CCP" in print before 2018 or so? Then suddenly it's ubiquitous and everyone knows it.

Blaming "Chinese" or "China" looks like racist in recent years so people want to blame the problem itself: CCP

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#77

Post by woooooo »

fomine3 wrote: post #76
woooooo wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been entirely media driven since 2018 on the topic. Nobody cared about China before then, and they wouldn't care now if it weren't for the constant hype. Anyone recall even seeing the acronym "CCP" in print before 2018 or so? Then suddenly it's ubiquitous and everyone knows it.

Blaming "Chinese" or "China" looks like racist in recent years so people want to blame the problem itself: CCP

What's the problem with them, specifically, that wasn't the exact same in say 2015 when they got no press?

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#78

Post by unity1001 »

ianburrell wrote: post #7
unity1001 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope China recognizes that challenging the West politically and economically is much better option The Taiwan War is being pushed precisely because China has been doing exactly that and the US wants China to stop and do what Japan did in 1985 by signing the Plaza Accords. China will never do that. Hence, the war...

China is concerned about currency markets so that is why they have to invade Taiwan? China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. It doesn't really show you are strong to threaten to invade another country to demonstrate strength.

> China is concerned about currency markets so that is why they have to invade Taiwan?

China has to invade Taiwan only if the US starts arming Taiwan to use it as a pawn against China like how the US openly declared that it intends doing. China will not make the mistake of waiting 8 years like Russia.

> China is strong enough that they don't have to listen.

Any sane observer of geopolitics who doesnt have a 6-figure paycheck that depends depend on saying what his employers want said, would say that China has been silent for way too long and the US would immediately start a war if anyone did so much as to threaten doing what the US has been doing to other countries. Then again, China has only recently reached the military power that could fight the US on even grounds without having to resort to a nuclear war.

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#79

Post by fomine3 »

woooooo wrote: post #77
fomine3 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blaming "Chinese" or "China" looks like racist in recent years so people want to blame the problem itself: CCP

What's the problem with them, specifically, that wasn't the exact same in say 2015 when they got no press?

US was too late to realize threat of CCP IMO (from Asian view)

Re: America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan

#80

Post by woooooo »

fomine3 wrote: post #79
woooooo wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the problem with them, specifically, that wasn't the exact same in say 2015 when they got no press?

US was too late to realize threat of CCP IMO (from Asian view)

What threat? Are they going to storm DC?

If the threat is "they will be more powerful than the US within like 100 miles of their borders", I can understand concern on the part of Taiwan specifically but it's a little greedy for the US to need every single inch of the oceans..

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