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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

economist.com

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#71

Post by 100pctremote »

yogthos wrote: post #37
jmclnx wrote: post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

[flagged]

Texas and Taiwan share very little in common in terms of history as political states and entities in the world economic system. It's a strange analogy you're asking us to make with negligible equivalencies.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#72

Post by yrdmb »

stale2002 wrote: post #35
yrdmb wrote: post #27

[flagged]

> How about letting the chinese people in mainland china and taiwan decide the matter for themselves. Taiwan currently has decided for themselves that they are happy to accept military weapons from the US, to defend themselves in the case of any military action against them from China. If that is Taiwan's decision, they should be supported and allowed to make it.

[flagged]

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#73

Post by nayuki »

gumby wrote: post #22
pphysch wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The CCP abandoned their promises of a democratic system and controlled the legislature, then more recently cracked down on speech, protest, and anything different from mainland practice. HK had had no democracy under the British, but declassified documents have since shown that that was at the demand of the Chinese government who threatened to invade if HK was allowed to vote.

Yup. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/world/asia/china-began-pu...

> But documents recently released by the National Archives in Britain suggest that beginning in the 1950s, the colonial governors who ran Hong Kong repeatedly sought to introduce popular elections but abandoned those efforts in the face of pressure by Communist Party leaders in Beijing.

> The documents, part of a batch of typewritten diplomatic dispatches requested by reporters from two Hong Kong newspapers, reveal that Chinese leaders were so opposed to the prospect of a democratic Hong Kong that they threatened to invade should London attempt to change the status quo.

> Another document recounts a meeting two years earlier, during which Premier Zhou Enlai told a British military officer that any effort to introduce even a modicum of self-governance to Hong Kong would be viewed as “a very unfriendly act” and a “conspiracy,” one he suggested would be seen as a move to set the colony on a path to independence.

> The threats had the desired effect. Britain made little effort to introduce electoral democracy in Hong Kong in the decades that followed.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#74

Post by sct202 »

yogthos wrote: post #31

The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their o…

The legal arguments on Taiwan are always very complicated, and the Diplomat article you linked to is very careful to specify Republic of China--not China--is the signatory to treaties. It is a very intentional wording as the author of the article is from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (embassy) in Japan.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#75

Post by epolanski »

aseerdbnarng wrote: post #57

While the Chinese threat to Taiwan is not something to be dismissed completely, the article doesn’t mention just how incredibly vulnerable China is to possible sanctions targeting their food supply. China imports most of its food and as their farmland is quite poor, its hugely dependent on fertiliser to feed itself. Sanctions targeting these basics would be devastating so I really struggle to see a convincing case fo…

I find it funny how much we in the west demonize China while we have attacked them, colonized them, consistently tampered with them, didn't recognize the PRC till the late 70s.

China has never laid a finger on the west, we did, yet we keep demonizing them, meddling in their own business (HK, e.g.) all while we fight wars all around the globe, spy everyone and overthrow governments left and right.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#76

Post by NicoJuicy »

missedthecue wrote: post #16
cm2187 wrote: post #7

What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?

A naval blockade with sea mines and submarines. Taiwan imports 70% of its food and 100% of its fossil fuels. Taiwan has major political factions that already favor closer ties with China. Put under stress, Taiwan may be more inclined to reunify than most western spectators would like to assume.

Quick search: https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-...

Which political parties?

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#77

Post by simplotek »

dirtyid wrote: post #39
jmclnx wrote: post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

[flagged]

> Reality going forward is Taiwan is going to have to look at HK or UKR and decide if they want to be just another Chinese city or glassed island that will never recover.

Ukraine is holding out extremely well and poised to achieve an unconditional victory. It's victory comes at a price, but one that any free and independent nation prides itself of paying.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#78

Post by epolanski »

ninethirty wrote: post #58

If China does invade, then it seems likely that North Korea would also invade SK, forcing the US to fight on at least 2-fronts, or 3 depending on what Russia is doing. If I was rich I'd move to Buenos Aires, the Paris of South America, and wait this thing out.

China isn't invading anyone and SK has a strong modern army.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#79

Post by stale2002 »

yrdmb wrote: post #72
stale2002 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How about letting the chinese people in mainland china and taiwan decide the matter for themselves. Taiwan currently has decided for themselves that they are happy to accept military weapons from the US, to defend themselves in the case of any military action against them from China. If that is Taiwan's decision, they should be supported and allowed to make it.

[flagged]

> only "independent" because we got involved

The people of Taiwan do not want to be invaded by China.

So, given that this is their wish, and Taiwan wants to be able to defend itself, it is OK to support their wishes and give them the means to defend themselves.

> The decision was already made.

Well, they are right now deciding that they want to be able to defend themselves.

So I respect that decision, which is that they want weapons and ways to defend themselves.

> don't want war.

There isn't going to be a war if China doesn't invade.

Which is why it is important to respect Taiwan's wishes to have the means of defending themselves.

> So taiwan can't decide anything

Even if you think that, this is all the more reason that they should be given as many weapons as they want, so they can make their own decisions and are not forced to do anything by an invading army.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#80

Post by not-my-account »

inconceivable wrote: post #66

does anyone know of a betting/futures market where one can put a wager on this happening or not by a certain date? the rhetoric in the west has gotten so intense in this area that i'm feeling like talking about it online is pointless - i'd rather put my money down.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-inv...
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