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They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

71–80 of 154 posts

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#71

YOu're graphing a random walk with a single black swan event (2008 crash). A more honest graph would just have the day/night delta mapped out, not integrated in.

To say it is a random walk is confusing a model of reality with reality.

Totally agree with the other poster though. You can pretty much prove whatever you want in the market depending on the start date and window size.

I would think the driving factor is after market earnings releases, expectations for those releases and how many there randomly happen to be during the window in question.

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#72

Since the article is not very informative, and it's a real rabbit hole to try to track this stuff down across all the linked articles etc. and as I don't even really care about stocks and the market, I am only left with one question which I did not find answered anywhere yet - what exactly does day and night mean in the context of the whole world trading?

> I am only left with one question which I did not find answered anywhere yet - what exactly does day and night mean in the context of the whole world trading? While we're at it, I have a related question: why do the exchanges even "open" and "close"? Surely in our globalized digital economy, it's not just "day" and "night" that are meaningless, but the very concept of "opening hours" itself.

Nobody just presses "start" on their trading algo and takes a nap the rest of the day. Even market makers, who have a simple and easily-automatable trading strategy, have a team of traders constantly tweaking the parameters to their algos.

I guess they could hire a second and third shift, but they also could have done that back when stocks were traded on paper and over the phone. The will just isn't there.

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#73
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically, it's because exchanges were real places that people went to, and it would be expensive and pointless to run them all night. These days, there is a trend towards opening hours getting longer (eg [1]). But there is still value to limited hours. Off the top of my head: 1. Liquidity gets concentrated. If there is a fixed amount of end-user demand (inflows into pension funds, oil production to hedge), then s…

>Closing the market gives participants time to do various kinds of admin related to trading. Trading firms can restart their software to fix the memory leaks.

If anyone is wondering, this is not a joke. Some of the trading systems I've worked on were designed to be restarted every night. The memory didn't "leak", but was designed this way - preallocate all the memory you could need, and its "freed" when you restart at night.

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#74
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HFT/market making is good for retail investors. Otherwise you'd have a lot more trouble and higher fees investing eg $100 at a time.

Yeah, yeah, I know the drill lower fees, faster price discovery, better liquidity. You will have a hard time convincing me any of these benefits are worth tolerating the damage speculations wreak like clockwork every ten years or so but I know I am on the losing side of this battle.

Market makers aren't speculators. It's like the opposite.

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#75
post #41

The answer is simply that more than 3/4 of liquidity events occur outside of market hours. People especially academics who bring this up are idiots.

While I tend to agree that's true (pmi, cpi, payroll, etc all happen before the market opens), it could have been worded better

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#76
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Closing the market gives participants time to do various kinds of admin related to trading. Trading firms can restart their software to fix the memory leaks.

If anyone is wondering, this is not a joke. Some of the trading systems I've worked on were designed to be restarted every night. The memory didn't "leak", but was designed this way - preallocate all the memory you could need, and its "freed" when you restart at night.

> preallocate all the memory you could need

Well, why did they have to restart if they never made any further allocations? This does not add up.

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#77
A large trading firm, particularly one that had the capability to trade cheaply enough to take advantage of this effect would never do this simply because 50%+ of the return of a single stock is determined by the return of a common market factor. If you take a position in a long only stock portfolio, you may own many stocks but statistically, particularly if the portfolio is only held overnight, it's a large bet on the direction of the market plus some noise. So you are taking a massive binary bet that is going to go wrong anytime the market opens down. This is why most high Sharpe ratio equity trading strategies involve short selling even though equities have a strong upward bias. If you eliminate the effect of the market factor, you have a portfolio that is made up many statistically independent bets.

For example, if you take a bet that is expected to make +/-1000 dollars with an equity portfolio, and it's long only, it's like tossing one coin to determine whether you make 500-700 dollars of the 1000 and then tossing coins repeatedly to determine the outcome of the remaining 300-500 dollars one dollar at a time. If the portfolio was market neutral, i.e. long and short in equal amounts, it's like you toss the coin 1000 times, each coin toss determining only 1 dollar of the outcome. If you believe the coin is biased even somewhat in your favor, as it usually is when you are trading a high quality strategy, the second option is far better.

Given the kind of risk-adjusted returns achievable by a firm that could trade cheaply enough to take advantage of this effect by other means, even using relatively simple well-known strategies, doing this would hurt their risk adjusted return and the returns they could generate on their risk capital. So the odds that there is a large long-lived firm doing this to mark their book and causing this effect is likely close to 0.

Others have mentioned several explanations for the effect. To this I will add one more, which I think is at least, if not more likely than the rest. Retail day-traders, some of whom are larger than people realize have a long bias, ie they are far more likely to hold a stock long than short sell it and they tend to close out their positions at the end of every day.

Seems like the authors have an axe to grind more than a point to make. The paper reads like the kind of certainty a completely uninformed but (markets are made up of evil people) true-believing crusader has. To me it seems like the kind of situation where someone doesn't yet know enough about a subject to know how little they know, in this case buttressed up by the broken credentialing system we call our education system.

The claim in my opinion is complete nonsense.

Edit: Fixed grammar.

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#78

Since the article is not very informative, and it's a real rabbit hole to try to track this stuff down across all the linked articles etc. and as I don't even really care about stocks and the market, I am only left with one question which I did not find answered anywhere yet - what exactly does day and night mean in the context of the whole world trading?

In the US the stock market officially opens at 9:30 and closes at 16:00 NY time every day. The day return is the return from the first trade (the official opening price but it would take too long to explain the the difference) at or after 9:30 to the last trade at or before 16:00 (the official closing price) and the night return is the return from the closing price to the opening price the next trading day.

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#79
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> holding overnight confers more risk, which will be rewarded by the market with higher returns. That’s really not how risk works.

Assuming an efficient market, that's exactly how it works - if there's more risk investors will require more reward to compensate.

I think the point is it doesn't work "in reverse".

Taking huge risks doesn't in itself mean you'll, on average, be hugely rewarded.

Re: They say that stocks go down during the day and up at night

#80
post #55
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically, it's because exchanges were real places that people went to, and it would be expensive and pointless to run them all night. These days, there is a trend towards opening hours getting longer (eg [1]). But there is still value to limited hours. Off the top of my head: 1. Liquidity gets concentrated. If there is a fixed amount of end-user demand (inflows into pension funds, oil production to hedge), then s…

> You'd need six people if trading was round the clock, and those people aren't cheap. That's not a good argument. If there were more openings for that kind of position, more people would apply, and average remunerations would get lower. The real problem is that this would effectively distribute wealth (and access to wealth) more widely, and the ruling classes can't have that as a matter of principle.

Higher demand leading to lower prices? That's an interesting hypothesis.
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