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Friday night’s near-disaster at JFK airport

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Re: Friday night’s near-disaster at JFK airport

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Space flight is the one industry with a better track record I’d say.

I wonder by what metric this is true. For instance, I’m sure the fatality per flight of manned space flight is an order of magnitude worse than commercial air flight in the US.

You sure? When air flight was pre-commercial it was a dangerous business indeed. Had we been as cautious as with space flight we wouldn’t have had commercial air flights until very recently.

Re: Friday night’s near-disaster at JFK airport

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder by what metric this is true. For instance, I’m sure the fatality per flight of manned space flight is an order of magnitude worse than commercial air flight in the US.

Easily *six* orders of magnitude. STS saw two crashes in O(10^2) flights (and SpaceX has much smaller numbers still). The US handles O(10^7) commercial flights per year, none of which crashed in 10+ years (I think). https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers

Ridiculous. This is comparing the modern commercial private space flight industry with the still maturing mostly public industry. Compare how dangerous the first twenty years of air flight was. We haven’t achieved the same level of commercial space flight due to just how cautious we’ve been.

Re: Friday night’s near-disaster at JFK airport

#74

For those thinking about preventative solutions, there are some existing, all very expensive of course. The simplest is placing a row of red lights in the ground at all intersections to runways. When an airplane is cleared for takeoff and until it is airborne the controller presses a button and turns all these lights red. Pilots are instructed that regardless of clearance, a red light over-rides that, and to never cr…

Why are the lights expensive?

I don't think the other answers are getting at the meat of it. Consider that those red lights functioning is the only thing keeping hundreds or thousands of people from getting killed. What sorts of safety and durability requirements would you impose on them? What sorts of maintenance and training requirements?

If nothing else they need to hold up in every weather and temperature big airports exist (-80ºF to +150ºF) and get run over by airplanes all day. Already that's a non-trivial problem.

Re: Friday night’s near-disaster at JFK airport

#75

The animation in the tweet at the end of the article is something. Based on that, the deceleration looked remarkably fast. I imagine that was quite the ride for the folks in the Delta jet.

Fasten those seatbelts!

Something I realized growing up, and perhaps this is a bias for others too: I always perceived of airline accidents as being crashes where everyone dies. Hence all the conspiracy silliness of “they just want to know what seat you were in to identify the body.”

But my goodness there’s so many ways to be badly hurt without a big crash.

In a way this feels akin to the highway bias: highways are far safer than city streets but a lot of people perceive them as being so dangerous.

Re: Friday night’s near-disaster at JFK airport

#77
post #2

Is there any aggregation of near misses? How often do things like this happen?

A near miss is a collision. This was a near collision ;)

Classic George Carlin bit on this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDKdvTecYAM

Re: Friday night’s near-disaster at JFK airport

#78

What are the likely consequences of this near miss? Is someone gonna get fired?

No, mainly they identify the contributing factors and work to correct them. For a specific example check Air Canada 759, which nearly landed on a crowded taxiway at SFO in 2017. No one involved was fired afaik.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGQlQFn0euI

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Canada_Flight_759

Re: Friday night’s near-disaster at JFK airport

#79
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are the lights expensive?

Manufacturing certifications, installation and maintenance inspections and certifications, auditing, etc. To put it into some relatable context, a simple electrical switch that you might grab for a few bucks at your local Home Depot would cost at least several hundreds of dollars because of all the red tape that must be satisfied for safety reasons. Safety isn't cheap.

The extra cost for safety is reducing safety because it's causing this not to get installed.

Maybe it's worth having a worse system that actually is there.

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