Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

iranintl.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 120 posts

Re: Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

#71

Post by m00dy »

firstSpeaker wrote: post #50
m00dy wrote: post #25

Turkey is clearing 80k mines in east turkey on the Iranian border [0]. That's another vital sign. Because the last time, something similar happened on the Syrian border, and the civil war in Syria started. [0]: Joint project with EU, UNDP to clear 80,000 mines in eastern Turkey https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/eu-affairs/joint-project...

Could you elaborate more on how is this related?

Turkey is clearing mines on its border for no reason and right after these operations, something big is happening. This is the relation. I hope it is clear.

Re: Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

#73

Post by throwaway290 »

EGreg wrote: post #68
throwaway290 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hordes of them around the revolution. After there was never a serious change of power.

Well yes, after the Russian revolution the losers fled for their lives. As did Trotsky when Stalin was seeking to kill him. I think he dressed as a woman to escape lol I am talking about subsequent leaders who actually ruled Russia. Yeltsin helped usher in the Chicago Boys reforms in Russia and he literally fired on Congress. The Peruvian guy does less than that but he is denounced - yet Yeltsin was supported by USA.…

Yes, it is clear you are talking about USSR and post-USSR RF. Again I don't know what's the point of picking a period with no real change of power, not even close to what seems possible in Iran.

Russian leaders were as quick to leave as any when shit hit the fan is my point.

Re: Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

#74

Post by JadeNB »

greggarious wrote: post #6
themitigating wrote: post #2

It's so weird to me how rare it is that the leaders of countries are executed by the population and to even call for that upsets people regardless of what their reign is like. There's almost no incentive to be a good leader since if it all falls apart you'll just end up living luxuriously in another country. Why is there such a high value placed on human life that ignores the impact that person had upon the world? Fe…

Someone told me in a bar on K Street the thing Vladimir Putin fears most is being hung from a gas station like Mussolinu, and I suspect that goes for all totalitarians. What scares me is I've met people like that at home in the USA. There is a quote by a KGB defector which I lost the cite for. "There is nowhere to defect to." They can live in luxury, but you cannot buy respect. Folks are allowed to show you, in small…

> Someone told me in a bar on K Street the thing Vladimir Putin fears most is being hung from a gas station like Mussolinu, and I suspect that goes for all totalitarians.

> What scares me is I've met people like that at home in the USA.

I'm trying to give this a charitable reading, but I'm puzzled by it.

First, I'm pretty sure that Mussolini was shot, not hanged, but obviously that doesn't change the main sentiment.

Second, I don't think I'm particularly likely to be hanged, and not much more likely than the average USian to be shot, but both those outcomes do frighten me if I think about them. So, when you say "What scares me is I've met people like that at home in the USA", do you mean people who are scared of being shot or hanged, or people who think that their likely end is being shot or hanged? Or something else?

Since you're getting a lot of reasoned replies I assume your meaning is clear to others, but I'm really having trouble figuring it out.

Re: Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

#75

Post by tokai »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #69
tokai wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>to even call for that upsets people regardless of what their reign is like. Its was so weird when Gaddafi was killed. He was a murderous villain and the west had directly made sure that his regime would fall or even outright tried to kill him with bombings. But when some of his so-called subjects got their hands on him and finished the job it was much maligned in the press. For some reason the more power you have th…

Was Gaddafi a murderous villain? By my understanding he sponsored IRA terrorists and unnecessarily attacked Egypt and Algeria in some minor conflicts and a few public executions (Lockerbie was pretty clearly a Syrian action).... That's it? I do think he claimed to be a murderous villain since that was working for assad I could be wrong but on raw terms it's not too far off from say any given us president in the last…

So how many people do you need to get killed before you can be a murderous villain? You are actually underlining the point with your apologia for a dictator. It also would be nice if US presidents also took the consequences of their crimes. But your whataboutism is not really an argument for anything here.

Re: Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

#76

Post by alephnerd »

mc32 wrote: post #64
alephnerd wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Egypt has strong a military relationship with Saudi and the US so a no-go Libya's governments have strong military relationships with Turkey and/or the US+France so a no-go If they try to take asylum somewhere outside Iran it would probably be Malaysia (lots of the Iranian elite send their children to the British+Australian university campuses there plus it's basically First World) or Qatar (similar reason as Malaysi…

I don't think Malaysia would -they're not quite aligned with Western nations, but also they don't like getting in trouble. But maybe Brunei or even Indonesia. Indonesia probably doesn't care as long as you stay out in some remote island to yourself.

The current Iranian government has strong relations with Malaysia - Iranian oil is often exported on tankers with Malaysian flags[0] and Malaysian politicians often lean pro-Iran[1][2] due to anti-imperialism, a Persiophilic form of Sunni Islam due to diffusion via South Asia, and business ties.

Indonesia's elite tend to be much more West dependent than Malaysia (and anecdotally, USC is the main school Indonesian elites send their children to, compared to British and Singaporean unis for Bumiputra Malaysians)

[0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Ira...

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-malaysia/mu...

[2] - https://rusi.org/publication/tension-asia-pacific-iranian-ma...

Re: Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

#77

Post by mc32 »

alephnerd wrote: post #76
mc32 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Malaysia would -they're not quite aligned with Western nations, but also they don't like getting in trouble. But maybe Brunei or even Indonesia. Indonesia probably doesn't care as long as you stay out in some remote island to yourself.

The current Iranian government has strong relations with Malaysia - Iranian oil is often exported on tankers with Malaysian flags[0] and Malaysian politicians often lean pro-Iran[1][2] due to anti-imperialism, a Persiophilic form of Sunni Islam due to diffusion via South Asia, and business ties. Indonesia's elite tend to be much more West dependent than Malaysia (and anecdotally, USC is the main school Indonesian eli…

Thanks, I was unaware of those ties. That makes sense. Culturally it's probably closer to Iran than Venezuela is, and they're probably inquiring within over there (just not reported). If I were a baddie, I sure would not put all my eggs in one basket.

The one "advantage" Maduro has is he's a strongman's strongman and a socialist caudillow.

Re: Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

#78

Post by alephnerd »

mc32 wrote: post #77
alephnerd wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current Iranian government has strong relations with Malaysia - Iranian oil is often exported on tankers with Malaysian flags[0] and Malaysian politicians often lean pro-Iran[1][2] due to anti-imperialism, a Persiophilic form of Sunni Islam due to diffusion via South Asia, and business ties. Indonesia's elite tend to be much more West dependent than Malaysia (and anecdotally, USC is the main school Indonesian eli…

Thanks, I was unaware of those ties. That makes sense. Culturally it's probably closer to Iran than Venezuela is, and they're probably inquiring within over there (just not reported). If I were a baddie, I sure would not put all my eggs in one basket. The one "advantage" Maduro has is he's a strongman's strongman and a socialist caudillow.

Venezuela makes sense for the top leaders because they would worry more so about extradition. Malaysia makes sense for the rest of the party apparatus.

I wouldn't be surprised if a number of the pro-regime Imams end up moving to India though - that was Khomeini's backup to Paris, is the 2nd largest Shia country in the world, and historically was the goto country of refuge for religious Iranian.

Re: Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

#79

Post by EGreg »

citilife wrote: post #41
EGreg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the only Russian leader who ever left and lived abroad was Gorbachev. Even Navalny came back to face the music, and he wasnt even president (yet?) I do not believe they are self serving at the expense of their country and will live in a bunker while their countrymen are bombed. They all thought and think they were doing the right thing for their country. Even Yeltsin, when he did in 1993 what essentially the…

> Even Navalny came back to face the music, and he wasnt even president (yet?) The dude has a a net positivity of -30% rating ... and is a designated terrorist. > According to polls conducted by the Levada Center in September 2020, 20% of Russians approve Navalny's activities, 50% disapprove, and 18% had never heard of him. Out of those who were able to recognize Navalny, 10% said that they have "respect" for him, 8%…

You could have said the same about Mandela and the ANC. Or Lenin and the Communists. Or Robespierre and the Jacobians.

Happy to say that Mandela and Navalny seemed less likely to create violent revolutions and big terrors, than those other two guys.

Re: Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change

#80

Post by citilife »

mindslight wrote: post #65
citilife wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Someone told me in a bar on K Street the thing Vladimir Putin fears most is being hung from a gas station like Mussolinu, and I suspect that goes for all totalitarians. Putin has openly said he despises what the west did to Gaddafi and believes thats what they want for him. He not only fears it, but but said he fears for his civilization (Russia). The west makes it pretty easy to be feareful - https://www.cbsnews.c…

Sure, but this fear of "ending up like Gaddafi" still doesn't doesn't make for a justification, or even an explanation, of why Putin thought it was a good idea to invade a neighboring country. Egging "The West" on made that worry much closer to becoming real. If Putin wanted to be left alone, he's done the exact wrong thing. I think the fuller explanation is that Putin got drunk on his own Kool-aid of successful prop…

I think Putin was actually extremely clear why he invaded Ukraine. NATO was expanding to Russia's border

https://nypost.com/2021/12/23/putin-demands-nato-not-expand-...

Ukraine was hostile to the Russian people, banning their language in schools and refusing to uphold neutrality. France tried to broker a deal before the war broke out (upholding the Minsk agreements).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-to-meet-macron-as-france-...

> Sure, but this fear of "ending up like Gaddafi" still doesn't doesn't make for a justification, or even an explanation, of why Putin thought it was a good idea to invade a neighboring country. Egging "The West" on made that worry much closer to becoming real. If Putin wanted to be left alone, he's done the exact wrong thing.

The west supported a coup in Ukraine, overthrowing the elected leadership of Ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/22/russias-putin-accus...

Russia then attempted to negotiate with the new Ukrainian government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements

Ukraine openly ignored the agreement and has been seeking EU / US involvement. Immediately before Russia invaded there was a massive increase in shelling (noted by international observers as well). Which could easily lead one to believe Ukraine was about to start another push into Donbass

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-sharp-incre...

Just prior to Russia invading, Ukraine was openly discussing the attempt to obtain nuclear weapons

https://www.dailywire.com/news/president-zelensky-suggests-u...

Everything points to expansion of the west, which triggered Putin's fears.

I'm not saying he should have invaded, he effectively lost in the political influence game, so he switched to the kinetic realm. But in his mind he thinks NATO is out to destroy him and his civilization (his own words). It makes sense if you watch what the west has done to people like Gaddaffi, Serbia, or Iraq. I'm not supporting anything here, but am pointing out the mindset.

Post reply on HN