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North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
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Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
#72What I wonder about is all of the technologies that go into ICBM's with nuclear weapons. My layman's guess is that there is active support and collaboration of the NK nuclear program from outside. North Korea is a headache for the US and other western powers, one more thing to consume policy bandwidth and military preparedness. This would seem to be in the interests of China and Russia, and perhaps others. I don't wo…
Google "aq khan pakistan north korea"
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=aq+khan+p...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Qadeer_Khan
Yes there was a great deal of outside help with their enrichment and weapons design.
Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
>"If JP/SK/US did decide on military action against North Korea" NK is no longer part of NPT. Would not this war be illegal? How does it correspond with "we are the nation of laws"? >"I would expect China to stand back" And what if it does not?
I know quite well, as you probably do, that international law has zero bearing on the military decisions made by the USA in terms of its interests. Yes, it'd be illegal, unless the UN Security Council gave its blessing. Just like the second Gulf War was illegal. That has never stopped the US before. > How does it correspond with "we are the nation of laws"? It does not. The United States government rejects the idea i…
>"That has never stopped the US before"
I know this much. My question was largely rhetorical.
Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
#74What I wonder about is all of the technologies that go into ICBM's with nuclear weapons. My layman's guess is that there is active support and collaboration of the NK nuclear program from outside. North Korea is a headache for the US and other western powers, one more thing to consume policy bandwidth and military preparedness. This would seem to be in the interests of China and Russia, and perhaps others. I don't wo…
Both nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles are technologies from the 1940's.
They don't need outside help.
Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
#75Is it possible someone could explain as if to a small child what data can be collected from GPS which shows this effect. I don't understand.
Fun house mirrors are curved and distort your reflection.
Some fun house mirrors are flexible so they can get pushed or pulled which will make you look taller or shorter or fatter or skinnier than you know you are.
By observing the difference between how you appear compared with how you are; you can learn something about how the flexible mirror is being curved.
How this works in the fun house is there is you the mirror and LIGHT.
Both you and the light are well known and easy to predict; light will travel straight(ish) and you will not suddenly become very very short, so the thing that is changing your appearance is the flexible mirror.
In the GPS rocket case, the GPS satellites are the illuminating source corresponding to the light in the room sending out radio (electromagnetic radiation same as light just at longer wavelengths)
The ground station GPS receivers correspond to your eyes (they know what they *should* see).
The earth's ionosphere corresponds to the flexible fun house mirror.
taken together, the same way you could tell if something we can't see behind the mirror flexed it, the author of the post showed they can tell if, when and where an unannounced rocket goes through the ionosphere.
Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
#76What I wonder about is all of the technologies that go into ICBM's with nuclear weapons. My layman's guess is that there is active support and collaboration of the NK nuclear program from outside. North Korea is a headache for the US and other western powers, one more thing to consume policy bandwidth and military preparedness. This would seem to be in the interests of China and Russia, and perhaps others. I don't wo…
Both nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles are technologies from the 1940's. They don't need outside help.
Well, these are multiple times more powerful. Not exactly last century's tech.
There are other factors too, like the sanctions these countries are under. One might say that some friendships were harnessed over common enemies, but I digress.
Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
> live-fire exercises every year where its army practices invading North Korea It's "practicing invading North Korea" in the same sense North Korea's missile tests are "practicing dropping nukes on America." It's a war practice, all options are on the table, with the hope that they won't be necessary. South Korea and the US had canceled the yearly joint exercise in 2019, hoping for a better relation with North Korea.…
> It's "practicing invading North Korea" in the same sense North Korea's missile tests are "practicing dropping nukes on America." The context here is extremely important. All of this (the invasion exercises, the missile tests, the Korean War) have taken place in the Korean peninsula. None of it has threatened the US homeland in a meaningful way. In addition, the exercises have been going on since 1997. That's a long…
I don't know if you're aware of it, but your framing is uncomfortably close to the North Korean diplomatic position, where it pretends that it's a matter to be settled between NK and the US, and any other countries are bystanders. Conspicuously absent is yet another country that will be directly affected by any conflict. Where do you propose the South Korean military conduct its joint military exercise to defend itself from North Korea? Texas?
(Of course, the official North Korean propaganda is that South Korea doesn't matter, because it's merely a colony of Imperialist America, to be liberated by our brave northern brothers. How nice of them.)
> the exercises have been going on since 1997.
North Korea has been caught developing nuclear weapons as early as 1992, which led to it threatening to withdraw from NPT in 1993. It's a shitty situation with decades of history, and you could easily find plenty of things to blame on both sides. But interpreting it as the US threatening to invade NK is a pretty biased take.
Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
What are the stations/receivers? Is this crowdsourced data?
They have a GPS receiver in a fixed, known location. They measure the received signal and from the variations infer corrections for ionospheric effects. They are part of the GPS network. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GNSS_augmentation
The video is data from just a single receiver?
Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
#79I'd like to see the amount of false positives/negatives, rather than just data of one day.
They don’t really seem to have a detector. They have a thing which makes visualisations, and it seems it should be possible to build a detector on top of that, but that doesn’t seem to be done yet.
Oh hey I wrote this!
Yeah, we had a detector with some ML stuff, it worked okay, but the main issue is there isn't much training data.
Overall the false positives are quite low (visually, which is hand wavey, of course). I've not really seen a big event that was not real. I ran it for a while 24/7 and while there are "scintillations" there aren't any circular waves. False negatives are a much bigger issue. Something like an IRBM or SRBM doesn't really show up, and those are much more common.
Fwiw, this uses a bandpass filter to look for the ripples, which filters out a ton of noise. Looking at ionospheric depletion would be good and probably more sensitive, but it requires accurate models of what the ionosphere ought to do. I've tried a few things there with mixed results.
Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS
#80Quoted post unavailable.
The problem is that NK has thousands of traditional artillery pieces stationed along the DMZ that are capable of hitting Seoul and other large population centers [0]. They also have short range ballistic missiles [1] which can reach much of South Korea.
So negotiating with them has been dicey. Especially since they have figured out that "If we do this thing the west doesn't like, we can go to the negotiating table and get them to send us food."
I do want to point out that the war never ended in 1953 - there was just an armistice signed, so technically North and South Korea are still belligerents.
So far as the DPRK leadership acting rationally - by their standards, they are. From talking with people who have visited there - the North Koreans have a world view that is substantially different from everyone else on the planet.