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How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

practical.engineering

71–80 of 310 posts

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#71
post #57
post #23

I am reminded of an excellent Twilight Zone episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPOoEQ2vx7w

That episode is less about unreliable power grids, and more about how easy it is to tear apart society by turning neighbors against each other over relatively minor things. Something that we've seen on a whole new level since 2015.

Most definitely. Just reminded me of it is all... I feel like nearly every life lesson can be learned through various Twilight Zone episodes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGguhrEMR_U

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#72

A lot of old Cold War preparatory war game scenarios start with EMPs blanketing the continental US. It only takes a few (like 1) nuclear weapon detonations in thin atmosphere (a few dozen km up) where the primary heat transfer mechanism is radiative (vs. convective, conductive) to cause enough EMP to take out pretty much the entire continental US grid. The military is fully hardened against EMP. Civilian infrastructu…

But is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. If you can’t feed or heat/cool people, alliances quickly change - especially if you have no way of tracking who becomes AWOL. As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. EDIT: Apparently the DoD requires diesel ba…

> is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it.

That's where Article 90 of the UCMJ comes into play,

    Any person subject to this chapter who willfully disobeys a lawful command of that person’s superior commissioned officer shall be punished—

      (1) if the offense is committed in time of war, by death or such other punishment as a court-martial may direct; and
      (2) if the offense is committed at any other time, by such punishment, other than death, as a court-martial may direct.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. If you can’t feed or heat/cool people, alliances quickly change - especially if you have no way of tracking who becomes AWOL. As far as I know, military bases don’t have their own nuclear reactors or coal plants. EDIT: Apparently the DoD requires diesel ba…

> is the military hardened against deserters, starving soldiers, starving military families, and so forth caused by civilian infrastructure collapse? I doubt it. That's where Article 90 of the UCMJ comes into play, Any person subject to this chapter who willfully disobeys a lawful command of that person’s superior commissioned officer shall be punished— (1) if the offense is committed in time of war, by death or such…

Right… but if a military base loses power, and the soldiers are starving, you may find that you quickly lose the ability to enforce the UCMJ effectively. And the moment you lose even a bit of control in such a situation, it will unravel potentially within hours.

The UCMJ works great when you can shame a soldier, have a Justice system to rely on, can seize assets or pay, have superiors in other states, and so forth. When it’s pandemonium everywhere… not much to keep it enforced especially when it gets really bad. The system works when a solider has something to lose… but when soldiers feel they have nothing to lose, heck, risk starving and actually losing more by staying…

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We want civilian EMP hardening not just for a nuclear war, but also for an unexpected solar event. We want to be able to handle whatever nature throws at us, our fellow apes combined. I just rounded off my most recent expansion to 120kw peak production with 500kwh storage, all EMP hardened to well above carrington event levels. Most of you have a house full of IoT crap dependent on AWS (region) to function.

> I just rounded off my most recent expansion to 120kw peak production with 500kwh storage How are you producing 120kw? That's the equivalent of around 300 solar panels (assuming 400W panels).

That's only like 300 * $100 for the panels if you buy them used. That's less than a Model 3. Installation usually costs far far more than the panels. If you have plenty of room and you can install them on the ground, and you are remote enough you can do it without permits or permits are easy to deal with (so really this means not California or New York) and wind isn't a huge concern (so not the Atlantic or Gulf coast) and your neighbors aren't constantly in your business (so not Texas) then this is easily done by someone who has a strong interest, a moderate income, and is a little handy. It is especially easy if you live somewhere so dry that wildfire is not a huge concern, and of course you need enough sunny days for it to be economical somewhat (although with this many panels you could live off this setup even in an Alaskan winter). My guess is they live in New Mexico or Nevada.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#75
post #36

> Critical facilities like cellular base stations and data-centers often have an on-site backup generator. These generators have enough fuel to extend the resiliency beyond 24 to 48 hours. During the 2019 hurricane here in Nova Scotia people stole the fuel (and even a few generators somehow), so don’t even count on that. We had no internet, cellular, or landline service for days where I live as a result, much less po…

Just gotta keep your ham radio go box in an EMP-hardened roll of tin foil and have a good crank generator, and you should be good to go. In a grid outage even tiny transmitter powers will be able to get out. It's most power efficient to use CW (morse code) unless you plant to have a computer up and running to run the even fancier digital modes.

Doing CW QRP at 1 watt in the right conditions will cover a huge distance, especially if the power has gone out. It really doesn’t take much when you get down to the absolute minimum viable setup.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#77

In Puerto Rico a few months back we lost power and water due to the hurricane. Living without power and water, even for a few days starts to have a severe psychological impact. You don't realize how much of a luxury and a blessing it is to have clean running water until it's no longer available. You can't flush the toilet, freshen up, shower, wash your dishes, or wash your clothes. If you don't have a backup power ge…

I regard attacks on critical civilian infrastructure as strategically indistinguishable from nuclear attacks, and deserving of a similar response.

Edit: Why is this being downvoted. I'm right. One will kill 100k people instantly. The other will send them back to the Middle Ages. The former group might actually be the luckier one.

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#78
post #65
post #36

> Critical facilities like cellular base stations and data-centers often have an on-site backup generator. These generators have enough fuel to extend the resiliency beyond 24 to 48 hours. During the 2019 hurricane here in Nova Scotia people stole the fuel (and even a few generators somehow), so don’t even count on that. We had no internet, cellular, or landline service for days where I live as a result, much less po…

At my cabin I have starlink, limited solar power and a generator with propane that comes on (power goes out a lot). Eventually I'll run out of propane and food (everyone has some emergency food supply for a few weeks at their cabin, right?), but I wonder how long I'd last with internet plus short trips in my electric car? I never planned for a post-gas future independent of the grid. Starlink relies on starlink downl…

Starlink and probably most isps would not last long

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#79
post #65
post #36

> Critical facilities like cellular base stations and data-centers often have an on-site backup generator. These generators have enough fuel to extend the resiliency beyond 24 to 48 hours. During the 2019 hurricane here in Nova Scotia people stole the fuel (and even a few generators somehow), so don’t even count on that. We had no internet, cellular, or landline service for days where I live as a result, much less po…

At my cabin I have starlink, limited solar power and a generator with propane that comes on (power goes out a lot). Eventually I'll run out of propane and food (everyone has some emergency food supply for a few weeks at their cabin, right?), but I wonder how long I'd last with internet plus short trips in my electric car? I never planned for a post-gas future independent of the grid. Starlink relies on starlink downl…

I think that last line is really the crux of it. Most of us would survive a “collapse” event exactly as long as it would take for people to get desperate. After that, all the batteries and canned food in the world will do you no good if you don’t have a remote and defensible location, ammunition, and lots of training. I have none of the above, so fingers crossed!

Re: How long would society last during a total grid collapse?

#80
After the Texas winter fiasco, we had solar panels + backup battery (40kWh worth) + backup whole home generator installed. Thankfully enphase allows you to go fully off grid so if the grid is down, you can still use your panels & backup battery compared to the Tesla system which does not allow that.

The batteries can output up to 15kWh at once so it pretty much is "whole home" backup even if its just the batteries as long as you don't turn everything on at once.

Can't imagine an EMP, but i'm as prepared as I can be at least for Texas.

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