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Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

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Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#71

Post by foverzar »

hmm0101 wrote: post #59
foverzar wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> despite the reality that many citizens of the “republics” have never seen indoor plumbing. Oh please, where do you even find these kind of myths? I've been living and traveling Russia for years - I just can't wrap my head where people get these kinds of idiotic narratives. I mean srsly "never seen indoor plumbing" - do you actually really believe this? Where did you even get an image like that? I'm just really puzz…

Hmm...you can get these facts just by reading the news: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/02/indoor-plumbing-st... Even pro-Kremlin sources: https://web.archive.org/web/20221004222830/https://www.rt.co... Funny that you have mention a bubble...

> you can get these facts just by reading the news

C'mon, it's the 21st centrury. You can find pretty much any kind of narative, whatever ideology and whatever image "on the news". According to "the news" Russians eat babies and Democrats are spawns of antichrist that want to turn all children gay, you know how it is.

Even your two links have only a theme in common, the substance is completely different.

> Funny that you have mention a bubble...

Why? When you don't have a consistent image of the subject and have to rely on an arbitrary proxy to provide you with some out of context piece of info - what is it, if not "bubble"?

When talking of scope or magnitude and how things work IRL, I'd rather trust my own empirical evidence, obviously. So your comment on bubbles is kinda ironic to me.

I mean, sure, some people don't have central heating (and use boiler), some don't have central sewerage (and direct their pipes to special underground pit, that gets emptied by a honeywagon every few years), some don't have centralized water, so they drill a deep hole and install a well pump - all this is very common in a countryside.

But "never seen indoor plumbing"? For real? I mean, we all like our wild medieval uncivilised Russia jokes, but it seems to me that some people take this image just too seriously and seem to have trouble distinciting between a joke and a reality.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#72

Post by hmm0101 »

foverzar wrote: post #71
hmm0101 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm...you can get these facts just by reading the news: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/02/indoor-plumbing-st... Even pro-Kremlin sources: https://web.archive.org/web/20221004222830/https://www.rt.co... Funny that you have mention a bubble...

> you can get these facts just by reading the news C'mon, it's the 21st centrury. You can find pretty much any kind of narative, whatever ideology and whatever image "on the news". According to "the news" Russians eat babies and Democrats are spawns of antichrist that want to turn all children gay, you know how it is. Even your two links have only a theme in common, the substance is completely different. > Funny that…

Both articles were citing Russia’s Federal Statistics Service. I agree that you can find pretty much any narrative and most of the news sources are not very objective. However, in my mind, automatic rejection of "the news" is almost the opposite problem, which is at least as big as the false narrative issue. I have no solutions to offer for any of these problems, but maybe we can at least agree that Russian Federal Statistics Service numbers give us a rough estimate.

Trusting your "own empirical evidence", rejecting "the news" is the bubble that I have been talking about. At least to me it looks like a bubble. And I am not saying that I don't live in a bubble, because I do. It takes effort and time to learn all the different sides of the argument, collect facts, etc. so it not possible to do it for all the issues. On the other hand, I completely agree there are good reasons not to trust "the news" blindly or even Russian State Statistics. We need to have some sort of middle way were we do not dismiss arguments just because they are in "the news", but at the same time take a critical look.

"Russia begins where asphalt roads end" :) there are always some truth in jokes. "never seen indoor plumbing" could be an exaggeration, but my intuition (my "own empirical evidence" if you will) tells me that the gist of it is true. I have been to Russia and seen Moscow in all of its fanciness. However, further away from Moscow, Saint Petersburg the picture is quite bleak. But that's just my 2 cents.

[some edits were made for style and grammar]

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#73

Post by Scharkenberg »

roenxi wrote: post #65
int_19h wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it was inevitable for Russia to end up so firmly in the anti-West camp. Back in 1993 - and, really, all the way until the end of 90s - it was very much at the crossroads. The mistake is claiming that the path it ended up choosing, it chose because of something the West did or didn't do. It was all about choices that people made - and back then, elections in Russia still meant something - in response to…

While the actions of Russia are ultimately the responsibility of the Russians, the end of the 90s is also around the time NATO started picking up ex-Soviet states [0]. It is underplaying the West's power here to ignore the effect of marching our anti-Russia alliance towards Russia. It is unreasonable to expect good relations while preparing that sort of military threat. The strategy here - driven by the US - fosters…

Your reply removes all agency from individual countries who independently decided to join NATO. Reminds me of certain whataboutist, bothsidist discourse in circles outside YN too.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#74

Post by carlmr »

paganel wrote: post #54

> What’s more, this spring in Germany, fears of energy blackouts were deemed to be a far-right conspiracy theory, Not only in Germany, unfortunately. Radio Free Europe (a US-government supported media institution) was saying just that on its Romanian website [1], together with accusations of fake news, around a year ago. [1] https://romania.europalibera.org/a/pana-de-curent-fake/31543...

The question is _why_ they were predicting energy blackouts. I don't remember anyone mentioning Russia cutting off gas.

If somebody says something which turns out to be correct, but for the wrong reasons, can we really call them correct in hindsight?

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#75

Post by AzzieElbab »

billiam wrote: post #16

It never ceases to amaze me how experts at something can't resist trying to be experts at everything. His examples from political science are just so off, but I have to concentrate on his example of Mearsheimer. Far from being one step or two ahead of the crowd, Mearsheimer's problem has been that he's still standing back in the 1980s. His realpolitik approach was refreshing and appealing for the time whensomewhat ph…

“ Mearsheimer's problem has been that he's still standing back in the 1980s” - this is true. However, the Overton’s window in Russia also shifted back to the 80s making Mearsheimer correct, but in a weird - broken clock kind of way. The whole thing became a self fulfilling prophecy once US diplomats started sharing theories of great powers and spheres of influence with their counterparts

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#76

Post by foverzar »

hmm0101 wrote: post #72
foverzar wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you can get these facts just by reading the news C'mon, it's the 21st centrury. You can find pretty much any kind of narative, whatever ideology and whatever image "on the news". According to "the news" Russians eat babies and Democrats are spawns of antichrist that want to turn all children gay, you know how it is. Even your two links have only a theme in common, the substance is completely different. > Funny that…

Both articles were citing Russia’s Federal Statistics Service. I agree that you can find pretty much any narrative and most of the news sources are not very objective. However, in my mind, automatic rejection of "the news" is almost the opposite problem, which is at least as big as the false narrative issue. I have no solutions to offer for any of these problems, but maybe we can at least agree that Russian Federal S…

I'm not rejecting the news, I largely reject superficiality and attempts to interpret statistics outside of domain knowledge and analysis of calculation methodics (oh the poor souls tasked with rigorously counting something in Russia)

> "Russia begins where asphalt roads ends" :) there are always some truth in jokes.

There is also some joke in jokes :)

St Peters may be bleak, but the culture of outside decorum really tells us nothing of the culture of basic utilities. People may not have city-like central services in rural wilder areas, but claiming that they had never seen plumbing is just super dumb.

It's not 15th century, how would one even operate their house without plumbing, c'mon.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#77

Post by hmm0101 »

foverzar wrote: post #76
hmm0101 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both articles were citing Russia’s Federal Statistics Service. I agree that you can find pretty much any narrative and most of the news sources are not very objective. However, in my mind, automatic rejection of "the news" is almost the opposite problem, which is at least as big as the false narrative issue. I have no solutions to offer for any of these problems, but maybe we can at least agree that Russian Federal S…

I'm not rejecting the news, I largely reject superficiality and attempts to interpret statistics outside of domain knowledge and analysis of calculation methodics (oh the poor souls tasked with rigorously counting something in Russia) > "Russia begins where asphalt roads ends" :) there are always some truth in jokes. There is also some joke in jokes :) St Peters may be bleak, but the culture of outside decorum really…

Sorry, I did not mean that Saint Petersburg is bleak (quite the opposite). I meant that the further away you go from these big cities, the worse everything looks.

I don't quite understand what you mean by superficial attempts. If their stats say that 10-20% do not have indoor plumbing then that what do you think they mean? (https://web.archive.org/web/20210630123627/http://www.gks.ru...)

Russia is huge... if you go to a village that is far away from any larger city, you'll see a lot of stuff - even stranger than not having indoor plumbing. If you can, I suggest travel to non-touristy areas, far away from large cities and see it for yourself :) Then report back and prove us wrong ;)

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#78

Post by paganel »

carlmr wrote: post #74
paganel wrote: post #54

> What’s more, this spring in Germany, fears of energy blackouts were deemed to be a far-right conspiracy theory, Not only in Germany, unfortunately. Radio Free Europe (a US-government supported media institution) was saying just that on its Romanian website [1], together with accusations of fake news, around a year ago. [1] https://romania.europalibera.org/a/pana-de-curent-fake/31543...

The question is _why_ they were predicting energy blackouts. I don't remember anyone mentioning Russia cutting off gas. If somebody says something which turns out to be correct, but for the wrong reasons, can we really call them correct in hindsight?

The natural gas prices were already beginning to go through the roof, they were at about the same level (slightly lower, even) compared to now.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#79

Post by sidibe »

hmm0101 wrote: post #77
foverzar wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not rejecting the news, I largely reject superficiality and attempts to interpret statistics outside of domain knowledge and analysis of calculation methodics (oh the poor souls tasked with rigorously counting something in Russia) > "Russia begins where asphalt roads ends" :) there are always some truth in jokes. There is also some joke in jokes :) St Peters may be bleak, but the culture of outside decorum really…

Sorry, I did not mean that Saint Petersburg is bleak (quite the opposite). I meant that the further away you go from these big cities, the worse everything looks. I don't quite understand what you mean by superficial attempts. If their stats say that 10-20% do not have indoor plumbing then that what do you think they mean? ( https://web.archive.org/web/20210630123627/http://www.gks.ru... ) Russia is huge... if you go…

I just happened to watch this video from today https://youtu.be/dLCc60VDArM of a guy interviewing Russians in a village. Development of their village is not the topic but they are all carrying around or filling buckets of water or drunk, and no paved roads to be seen.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#80

Post by Izkata »

Scharkenberg wrote: post #73
roenxi wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While the actions of Russia are ultimately the responsibility of the Russians, the end of the 90s is also around the time NATO started picking up ex-Soviet states [0]. It is underplaying the West's power here to ignore the effect of marching our anti-Russia alliance towards Russia. It is unreasonable to expect good relations while preparing that sort of military threat. The strategy here - driven by the US - fosters…

Your reply removes all agency from individual countries who independently decided to join NATO. Reminds me of certain whataboutist, bothsidist discourse in circles outside YN too.

It's not one-sided, existing NATO members have to approve new membership. They could have said no.
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