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What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

imgracehuang.medium.com

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Re: What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

#71

If inflation is caused by people having too much money then it is a self-correcting problem because as prices go up people will no longer have as much money. Soon enough they will not have too much money at all. So what is the real problem with inflation? Is it the economic inequality it brings to those who have to live on fixed income? I've been following the discussion on US TV and it seems they are saying we need…

Inflation isn’t caused by too much money. It is caused by too much money velocity. That’s why the last huge injection of money in 2008 didn’t cause inflation. Folks sat on their money and didn’t spend it. Raising interest rates isn’t about causing unemployment (directly at least). It is about causing capital investment to be less lucrative than tying the money up in treasuries, reducing money velocity.

So why not go for the even simpler solution of forcing everyone to use checks which only clear once a week?

If money velocity causes inflation forcing people to use less efficient methods of exchanging money should stop it.

Re: What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

#72

This article is missing a lot. For instance, it misses the international element completely. It does not mention one of the most important monetary facts of the 20th Century: that the USA dollar was allowed to float 1971. This was the end of the Bretton Woods system: https://www.bundesbank.de/en/tasks/topics/1973-the-end-of-br... The floating exchange rate helped the USA to hold on to manufacturing jobs, but caused i…

Agreed. Also misses the global effect of the Arab oil embargo over US support for Israel in the 1973 war, which was amplified further by the rise of OPEC and the concommitant rise in international oil prices. This in turn caused a balance-of-payments problem, which in turn led to petrodollar recycling and the military-economic alliance between Gulf Arab states and the USA (and also, though this is largely forgotten,…

Also led to the invention of the Eurodollar. OPEC decided that world oil markets would be dollar denominated and the Soviet Union was making a bunch of money they didn’t want in US banks. European banks were happy to denominate deposits in dollars, despite being outside the US legal system and voila Eurodollars.

Re: What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

#73

If inflation is caused by people having too much money then it is a self-correcting problem because as prices go up people will no longer have as much money. Soon enough they will not have too much money at all. So what is the real problem with inflation? Is it the economic inequality it brings to those who have to live on fixed income? I've been following the discussion on US TV and it seems they are saying we need…

Inflation isn’t caused by too much money. It is caused by too much money velocity. That’s why the last huge injection of money in 2008 didn’t cause inflation. Folks sat on their money and didn’t spend it. Raising interest rates isn’t about causing unemployment (directly at least). It is about causing capital investment to be less lucrative than tying the money up in treasuries, reducing money velocity.

There is also the the contention that the huge injection of money went into assets rather than goods and services, leading to asset price inflation - that is, an asset bubble - rather than elevated consumer inflation.

Re: What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

#74
Inflation in 1972 was fairly low, 3.4%. In 1974, inflation had jumped all the way to 12.3%. Hmmm... what major geopolitical event, with significant economic repercussions, occured in 1973? How about the Yom Kippur War, the U.S. military aid intervention on Israel's side, and the subsequent Gulf Arab oil embargo?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

> "By the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen nearly 300%, from US$3 per barrel to nearly $12 per barrel globally; US prices were significantly higher. The embargo caused an oil crisis, or "shock", with many short- and long-term effects on global politics and the global economy. It was later called the "first oil shock", followed by the 1979 oil crisis, termed the "second oil shock"."

The 1979 oil shock was caused by the steep drop in oil production in Iran, and was only partially mitigated by the petrodollar recycling system that US and Britain had set up with the Gulf Arab states in the latter half of the 1970s (initiated under President Ford's administration). It was later offset by the deepwater oil boom, in the North Sea and Gulf of Mexico, as well as by falling demand to the rise of more energy-efficint vehicles and energy-saving initiatives:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980s_oil_glut

By 1983, the inflation rate was back to 3.2%, which seems to match the notion that energy prices were the dominant inflationary factor over the 1972-1985 period.

It's curious that the author of this piece entirely neglects this fundamental dynamic, instead claiming that it was due to a push for full employment (which is something of a neoliberal trope, i.e. it's an argument in favor of decreasing domestic US employment by shifting manufacturing overseas to sweatshop zones).

Just look at the US unemployment rate - it dropped from 10.8% in 1982 (3.8% inflation) to 6.6% in 1986 (1.1% inflation).. i.e. Inflation plunged while employment boomed... doesn't that completely upset that argument?

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-33...

Re: What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you cap prices for a given company or product, you prevent that company (or producers of that product) from competing effectively for the inputs to that product in the broader market place (bear in mind things like labour and energy are relatively interchangeable between companies), that can ultimately mean that the company can no longer produce anything at all (if the cost of their inputs rise above their sale pr…

There is also a government role in making sure an efficient and fair market exists for goods, by working against cartels and monopolies for instance. The gas price shock is partly caused by a massive supply shock, but also an unwillingness of the cartel to increase supply, since they are doing just fine with the high prices. I think we are seeing something similar with (for instance) Amazon. A gross simplification is…

There are some other obvious reasons for that unwillingness to increase supply that I think you're missing. Any substantial increase in supply would require investing money in new infrastructure, since it's currently at close to capacity. For the last few years environmental activists have campaigned against any investment in fossil fuel production with some success and this makes it a lot harder to get funding. Also, you may recall that there were a bunch of articles claiming fossil fuel assets would become stranded and literally worthless due to the global push for net zero, and how fossil fuel companies were basically scamming investors by ignoring this risk. The companies are acutely aware of this risk and have been quite cautious about expanding capacity as a result.

Re: What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another perspective, we have 83.45 %/year CPI inflation in Turkey. This is the official number an independent research group of academics claim it is nearing 200%. The official interest rate is 10.5%/year. You get maximum 20-25%/year interest on savings accounts. Real estate market and rents go up 220%/year (by the official numbers). Before doing FIRE purchase your own home or sign a really long term lease with upfro…

I've watched the numbers in Turkey over the past year, and it's mind-boggling. What I don't understand is: how do people get by? Lots of Germans have little savings, don't own their home, and have relatively small margins with their income. The ~10% (or maybe 15, if you exclude some of the wonky things that keep them down) are being felt. I cannot imagine how lots of people would get by with 80% or 100% inflation in…

We lower our standards, lots of middle class families don't eat red meat anymore for example. We don't eat out. We sell assets, take on debt.

Young people don't move out in the first place. Lots of people move back in.

We got immensely poorer, it is tough out here. You see beggars everywhere, especially low income families were hit the worst.

We live under Erdogan, if we try to rise up, we get shut down. All public protests are de facto banned, with the new disinformation act I am risking a jail sentence even by writing this comment. You can even go to jail if you like a tweet of a whistleblower for example.

Re: What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

#77

If inflation is caused by people having too much money then it is a self-correcting problem because as prices go up people will no longer have as much money. Soon enough they will not have too much money at all. So what is the real problem with inflation? Is it the economic inequality it brings to those who have to live on fixed income? I've been following the discussion on US TV and it seems they are saying we need…

(Much has been said in the other comments, but I find them mostly incomplete)

> If inflation is caused by people having too much money then it is a self-correcting problem because as prices go up people will no longer have as much money. (...) So what is the real problem with inflation?

Great question. The "real problem" with inflation depends on what type of inflation it is - either demand side, which is what the Fed can control, or supply side, in the form of rising energy or food prices due to external shocks. Right now we actually have both. The latter directly worsens standards of living (it causes prices to rise but wages stay the same), and the former is a bit more subtle; it taxes savings and causes various instabilities through the economy due to the changing value of future money, such as eroding the value of a loan for borrowers. (But in the long term prices and wages do re-adjust, as you point out; the problem is short term.)

> I've been following the discussion on US TV and it seems they are saying we need more unemployment.

The TV is hopelessly confused. We do need a monetary tightening to stop the economy from overheating(demand-side inflation), which will unfortunately worsen unemployment, but that isn't the main mechanism here. The inflation is a consequence of a mistake that has already been made by the Fed - overly expansionary monetary policy since 2021 - and the steps required to fix it will cause unemployment to temporarily rise.

And yes, this is going to suck. But the more the Fed waits, the worse it gets.

Re: What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

#79
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation isn’t caused by too much money. It is caused by too much money velocity. That’s why the last huge injection of money in 2008 didn’t cause inflation. Folks sat on their money and didn’t spend it. Raising interest rates isn’t about causing unemployment (directly at least). It is about causing capital investment to be less lucrative than tying the money up in treasuries, reducing money velocity.

Monetary velocity is defined as the price level times real output over the money supply. There is a mechanical relation with inflation (which is the delta of the price level), but saying that's a unidirectional casual link is a disingenuous interpretation.

This isn't just some weird game with definitions, though, I'm pretty sure it has actual consequences that are important for understanding inflation and the cost of living crisis.

Currently, energy prices have been going up due to an inadequeate supply of fossil fuels and an excessive supply of money (especially outside the USA, with natural gas prices particularly high). This is a direct consequence of too much money chasing too little supply; it's not possible to set a lower price because more would be purchased at that price than is actually available. However, all the money people are spending doesn't just disappear but ends up as profits for fossil fuel producers, and particularly in Europe there's been a push to fix this by placing windfall taxes on producers and using it to subsidise consumer prices. The problem is that although the money doesn't disappear, the fuels bought with it have gone up in smoke, so if you distribute that money back to consumers you're effectively increasing the amount of money they have to spend chasing the same limited supply of fossil fuels just like if you outright printed money. In a sense, monetary velocity is the supply of money.

Re: What the Great Inflation (1965-1982) taught us

#80

This article is missing a lot. For instance, it misses the international element completely. It does not mention one of the most important monetary facts of the 20th Century: that the USA dollar was allowed to float 1971. This was the end of the Bretton Woods system: https://www.bundesbank.de/en/tasks/topics/1973-the-end-of-br... The floating exchange rate helped the USA to hold on to manufacturing jobs, but caused i…

Agreed. Also misses the global effect of the Arab oil embargo over US support for Israel in the 1973 war, which was amplified further by the rise of OPEC and the concommitant rise in international oil prices. This in turn caused a balance-of-payments problem, which in turn led to petrodollar recycling and the military-economic alliance between Gulf Arab states and the USA (and also, though this is largely forgotten,…

full employment surely can't help, if consumer prices going up is caused by too much demand and too little supply.
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