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300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

sf.atmo.ai

71–80 of 119 posts

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#71
post #34

This needs to be done for more cities in California, especially Los Angeles with its huge geographic area and all the diverse micro climates contained within. Sometimes the weather changes more than 15 degrees in half as many miles from the coast. It therefore doesn't make sense to e.g. check "weather in LA" when its going to be somewhat wrong most of the time depending on where in LA you happen to be, since the litt…

Same thing in San Diego. I feel like the popular weather services can't make accurate predictions or even tell what is happening most of the time. My iPhone will tell me it's raining when it's sunny outside.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#72
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tall bridges do weird things to the wind. I can confirm the bay bridge at surface level, there is functionally no wind for about half a mile downwind from it. Just glassy smooth.

Most of the san mateo bridge is quite low, especially the stretch crossing the bay. This is why I was so shocked it had a wind shadow 10+ miles

I'm not seeing much of a wind shadow for that bridge, particularly at 4pm Friday. Maybe they updated the model already. Most of the onshore windflow begins after 11am goes from the cold (high pressure) pacific through the gg bridge, wraps around the east side of angel island and north past Richmond and Vallejo towards the hot (low pressure) central valley. South of SFO silicon valley is surrounded by tall geographic features and there's not much path to hotter (low pressure) zones so it's unusual to see high winds there unless there's a special offshore wind event coming from the south (most often in the winter).

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#73
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The website claims to be using DL which may mean less of a model-centric approach? The expertise of the people at the top of the organization, on this problem, seems a little thin, TBH. And, no stated validation results at all? Without such details, this is just marketing. It would be interesting to see how this behaves for longer prediction times and across a range of difficult forcing conditions off the ocean in th…

I agree, this generally left me feeling skeptical. I know of Luca Delle Monache on the advisory team, through colleagues who have researched under him at Scripps and they spoke highly of him. But yes, there is a lot left to the imagination here. With regards to the sfbay specifically I used to work with a fairly high resolution wind model for the bay (this was a more traditional dynamic based simulation) and it worke…

(For clarity, I was referring to the company leadership proper, not the advisory team.)

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#74
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been working with weather models for 10 years and I often get asked "How accurate is X?" or "Which model is more accurate?" Many people think "accuracy" is a single number or a single thing - it is more complex than this and depends on your needs. This chapter on Numerical Weather Predictions [0] is great, especially the section on "Forecast Quality and Verification" (p777). The eye-opener for me was "Binary/Cat…

Meteoblue was dramatically more accurate in Chamonix last spring than the GFS.

You have to be careful you aren't comparing apples to oranges. You might be looking at the Meteoblue MOS (statistically corrected) predictions which might be based on their regional weather simulation. This regional simulation might be nested in a larger global model, probably from ECMWF. If you compare this ECMWF model to GFS, then you are comparing apples with apples.

I find global models like GFS are great for understanding the large scale weather systems. The regional high-resolution models, which are usually nested in a global model, give better definition of local weather phenomena like wind shadows or cooler temperatures in valleys.

Dues to averaging, weather simulations usually have a bias error in temperature predictions. These errors are corrected using statistics (look up Model-Output-Statistics) but is hyper-local, i.e., you loose the big picture. This is probably what you're looking at with Meteoblue.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean up or downsampling is trivial. The question isn't if you can make a raster at any resolution, its if you can make a raster thats accurate and precise at that resolution. Its not clear to me that this is either.

One of the interesting things the model captures at this resolution is the dynamics of the wind going in the bay through the golden gate. See for instance: https://sf.atmo.ai/wind@37.80911,-122.44543,11.68,36,0,16669...

The Global Forecast System (GFS), i.e. the model presently used at NCEP, has a grid resolution of 18 miles (28 km). It is (has been, for years, actually), the second best global forecast system, right behind the European ECMWF (sometimes outperforming it, but on average slightly underperforming it, in terms of accuracy).

I don't know how the ECMWF model works, but even as someone who did not study meteorology (but studied electrical engineering, which forms the theoretical basis of weather forecasting via the Kalman filter), I can say the following (having spent a number of years working at NCEP): 1. Initial conditions/parameters are fundamental in setting up a model run. 2. Forecasts have for a long time relied on ensembles, which are repeat model runs with slightly varying parameters. The idea of ensembles is, if you run enough of them, you will frequently notice one or more convergence(s) that various sets of parameters produce, e.g. where some sets of parameters predict one movement pattern for a hurricane, while others produce a different movement pattern. Historically, such discrepancies were resolved by actual forecasters, who decided based on their knowledge and experience which one was more likely. In addition, they also had meetings every morning between scientists (developing the model) and forecasters (who relied more on general knowledge and experience) and involved occasionally heated discussions between the groups. But I digress. 3. Considering it involves a chaotic system, I cannot say how much value something like deep learning might bring to the table that produces consistent value above and beyond what's already obtained by using ensembles of Kalman predictive filtering. It is however noteworthy to point out that if the grid resolution is 28,000 meters, then it may not make much sense to set the resolution of the model itself substantially lower (like 300 meters), because any resulting data is more likely to be an artifact of the model itself, rather than reflective of real life information. Luckily, this issue has been and is being addressed through the development of rigorous testing standards, which inform of the inherent quality of forecasts produced by a particular model (this is how they can assign an objective rank to e.g. the GFS and the ECMWF, when forecast quality is generally very close and the model producing the most accurate prediction varies between the two). To put it plainly, the degree to which the website mentioned above has any value is based not on its best predictions, but on the overall variance (i.e. how close predicted data comes to actual measurements of the same, which is necessarily retrospective). 4. That said, it's worthwhile to point out that just because it doesn't involve a government agency with something like a thousand employees, hundreds of scientists (in the case of NCEP alone), and very powerful supercomputers, does not necessarily mean it's bunk (even if it frequently does). For example, I do recall Panasonic (IIRC) showing up out of the blue, with its own forecasting system, which was shown to be competitive after requisite, rigorous testing. I don't remember many details and this was years ago—and its disappearance alone is suspect, but it's worth adding for completeness.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#76
post #57
post #55

Growing up in Germany, before I moved to the Bay Area, I was wondering why weather apps and widgets were so prolific. Sure, knowing the forecast for next weekend was nice, but for anything closer I'd just get out of bed and look out of the window. That would pretty much tell me what weather it is, and it would usually change just slowly over a few days or so. Then I moved to the Bay Area, and weather does not only ch…

Another anecdote: In the South of Germany at least, long stretches of sunny days are often followed by sudden thunderstorms with equally sudden bursts of rain. That "fact" had been so deeply ingrained in me that it was subconscious. You'd have a careful feeling if it was hot for too long, suddenly you might find yourself running for the next awning to escape the torrential rain. Sunny weather was a bit like building…

I hadn’t even thought of that until I read this. I had thought thunderstorms after hot weather were just a fact of life. I guess in places near German latitudes that get thunderstorms the hot weather is caused by high pressure systems but maybe that isn’t really the cause in California.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#77
post #55

Growing up in Germany, before I moved to the Bay Area, I was wondering why weather apps and widgets were so prolific. Sure, knowing the forecast for next weekend was nice, but for anything closer I'd just get out of bed and look out of the window. That would pretty much tell me what weather it is, and it would usually change just slowly over a few days or so. Then I moved to the Bay Area, and weather does not only ch…

Yes. I’m from Denmark, but I check the weather every night before stepping out as I have experience 13 C nights where the previous night was 20 C. And this is not uncommon. When I first got here I was stunned by how noticeable nicer the weather was when driving from Santa Clara to Palo Alto, and more than once have I forgotten to bring a sweater to SF.

Yeah. Living in SF and working in the South Bay, it's common in the evening to get into my car sweating, and coming out freezing. I always pack a hoodie.

On the bright side, a hoodie is often all I ever need, all year long.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#78
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another anecdote: In the South of Germany at least, long stretches of sunny days are often followed by sudden thunderstorms with equally sudden bursts of rain. That "fact" had been so deeply ingrained in me that it was subconscious. You'd have a careful feeling if it was hot for too long, suddenly you might find yourself running for the next awning to escape the torrential rain. Sunny weather was a bit like building…

I hadn’t even thought of that until I read this. I had thought thunderstorms after hot weather were just a fact of life. I guess in places near German latitudes that get thunderstorms the hot weather is caused by high pressure systems but maybe that isn’t really the cause in California.

Coastal weather is often lacking the conditions that creates thunderstorms. I live near the coast now too and haven't experienced the kind of thunderstorm I know from Germany.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#79

Weather forecasts are so hard for a user to evaluate... Are you going to check it every day and remember how many days it was right or wrong? Please can weather providers just publish a headline statistic of "Our rain/no rain one day ahead forecast is right 85% of the time. That is better than NOAA (80%), Met Office (72%) and weather.com (65%)."

This is kind of the purpose of the "50% chance of rain" things. The process is called calibration and is usually done with linear regression, and it means that in historical forecasts , the actual outcome was rain 50% of the time. Surface precip is notoriously hard to predict, so this is what we've got right now.

But they should publish that... And then compare that figure to their competitors... To demonstrate to their users that their service is actually better, not just has a shinier UI...

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#80
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the interesting things the model captures at this resolution is the dynamics of the wind going in the bay through the golden gate. See for instance: https://sf.atmo.ai/wind@37.80911,-122.44543,11.68,36,0,16669...

The Global Forecast System (GFS), i.e. the model presently used at NCEP, has a grid resolution of 18 miles (28 km). It is (has been, for years, actually), the second best global forecast system, right behind the European ECMWF (sometimes outperforming it, but on average slightly underperforming it, in terms of accuracy). I don't know how the ECMWF model works, but even as someone who did not study meteorology (but st…

While a good set of initial conditions is indeed critical, having a smaller model is helpful for modeling micro climates such as the ones you see in the Bay Area. At this resolution you can have a much more detailed representation of relief and water, which are two of the biggest drivers behind the beautiful dynamics we observe here.

Kalman filtering is only one part of the process, and plays a critical role during the data assimilation part. Classical Kalman filtering is optimal for Gaussian-distributed linear dynamical systems, but needs tweaks for non Gaussian distributions and non linear systems.

Classical NWP models for instance will integrate the primitive partial differential equations in time and space and run various parameterizations (which can be in some cases even more expensive than integrating the primitive equations). ECMWF on their end use IFS, which is a spectral method for solving the PDEs.

The whole process of solving these models accurately has definitely been some of the most fascinating science and engineering I’ve had the pleasure to work with. It’s extremely humbling :)

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