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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

economist.com

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#71

Post by cpursley »

nly wrote: post #54
ethbr0 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Voters in a democracy tend to react better to dollars-spent than bodybags-returned. So support via the former will always be the more tenable position for a democracy.

The best way for the EU to 'fight' russia would be to not be dependent on it for energy. Russia can also do what it likes because of the constant nuclear threat. Russia has nukes that work, whereas the likes of the UK has a single nuclear sub that occasionally gets stuck on a sand banks. The Russians probably know where it is at all times.

Yup. It's actually the same answer how we should have fought middle eastern terrorism after 911. The answer was for the west to become energy independent from the middle east as fast and sustainability as possible.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#72

Post by svnt »

adeptima wrote: post #59
bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said" I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

They may be preparing to do both, and in both the US and Japan. Their statement is then technically true and does not upset the mainland.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#73

Post by NavinF »

hulitu wrote: post #19
machinekob wrote: post #15

tl:dr Global recession => lower chip demand for consumers China ban => lower demand from CCP nvidia RTX 4090 still out of stock in most places :| I'm pretty sure datacenter and military chip usage will grow in next few years even if recession hit consumer market even harder then past year then US chipmakers will get fat checks just 2be prepared for China retaliation (probably feels good to be Intel in chip war time).

> tl:dr Global recession => lower chip demand for consumers Global recession is to blame for everything. I'm waiting for some years for payable video card, nothing special, but i guess Global recession is to blame. /s

You're waiting for a "payable video card" after prices crashed to an all time low? There are 3090s getting dumped for <$800 now. Is a 50% drop not enough for you?

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#74

Post by nathas »

valdiorn wrote: post #53

So, can someone explain to me why I can't get ANY chips for anything at all? Everything is out of stock that I use in my designs (Audio processing equipment). microprocessors, microcontrollers, ADCs, DACs, audio codecs, memory. Even bread and butter diodes were hard to source a few months ago. You name it, Mouser/Farnell/Digikey/the manufacturer doesn't have it. And if they do, it's priced at 500% MSRP. It may be "sw…

Check out the post by Schiit Audio's CEO (I think CEO?): https://www.head-fi.org/threads/schiit-happened-the-story-of...

It looks like the audio sector was hit particularly hard by the war in Ukraine.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#75

Post by bryanlarsen »

Isinlor wrote: post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

China will invade Taiwan when the cost to do so is low enough and/or they are desperate. In other words, the probability of success is considerably higher today than it will be in the future (even if the probability of success today isn't great).

Russia is a declining state relative to Ukraine & Europe, so Putin's odds of success in 2022 were considerably higher than they would be 10 years later. So if invading Ukraine was necessary at some point, 2022 was the best time to do it.

China's regime believes that invading Taiwan is necessary, but OTOH the Chinese military is getting stronger very quickly and they believe they'll be in a much better position to invade in a decade then they are now. So there is no way they're going to invade any time soon.

Avoiding a war completely is highly unlikely given Xi & China's policies. But delaying a war is highly likely. And a war indefinitely delayed is a war avoided.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#76

Post by AlgorithmicTime »

adeptima wrote: post #59
bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said" I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

No post body was provided.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#77

Post by cxr »

Quindecillion wrote: post #10
gergoe wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Quoted post unavailable.

Please just downvote these comments (and then flag them if you can), rather than replying.

If you aren't able to downvote or flag them, then please still abstain from responding. It will get killed eventually, but replying brings undue attention, thwarting the point of moderation.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#78

Post by sylware »

detaro wrote: post #60
adeptima wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said" I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

There is no spare capacity to build highest-end process fabs, and there is huge demand for capacity in 22/28nm too.

"spare capacity" ? what do you mean ? Taiwan and South Korea are enough to supply the world demand? Well, it is still hard to get your hands on top-notch chips at a reasonable price whatever the news is saying...

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#80

Post by jtorsella »

mschuster91 wrote: post #24
jtorsella wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don’t understand this. Chips are tangible goods, not services where, for example, a bunch of hospitality capacity went to waste during the pandemic. Any “extra” chips will go to use, and will only serve to reduce costs for firms and consumers purchasing them, expand the range of products it makes sense to put chips in and the speed and quality of chips companies can afford to build on. While market signals a…

> Chips are tangible goods Many chips are not fungible , at least not for large-volume orders that incorporate stuff like customer specific mask ROMs or optimizations, and certainly for built-to-order stuff like Apple's SoCs. That means that let's say Apple can't just go and take a bunch of NVIDIA's chips and slap them into their products, and I'd even take a bet and say that manufacturers of NVIDIA cards can't easil…

Yes, that’s a good point. But it seems to me like that’s a matter of degree, right? Like, even stipulating that the chips themselves are not fungible across products and companies, they are fungible across time for the same or similar products. The price of your 2023 fridge, for example, could be lower because of excess supply of chips for 2022 models, no? And am I right in thinking that even if the chips themselves are not fungible (and there is a genuine possibility that excess production of specific chips goes completely to waste), excess productive capacity is good in and of itself despite some amount of specialization?
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