Earlier quoted context omitted.
US since it destroys Putin's leverage against Germany.
please elaborate further how the US would benefit from destabilizing German gas supplies.
German can't make a deal with Putin anymore since the leverage is gone
Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
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Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
But who is that? Ukraine should be fine with having Germany buy Russian gas since Germany keeps sending arms and push others to send arms. I don't see why the US would care either now that Germany is finally moving away from Russian gas. And Russia can just close the pipeline in a less destructive way.
Poland? They were vocal opposers, and the ruptures are close to their coast.
Poland's got the Formoza unit, such an operation would certainly be within their capabilities.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JW_Formoza
Not that I believe that would be orchestrated by the Polish gov.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#73Who would benefit from this?
Isn't that obvious? It's to strengthen Germany's resolve. The temptation to surrender and get the gas turned back on is going to be enormous this coming winter. Germany and several other countries have made plans to shut down parts of heavy industry to save gas for heating. This is more than likely to put increasing pressure on governments to give in to Russia's demands. Now they can't, even if they want to, so that…
There really isn't anywhere close to something like a median voter wanting to get the gas flowing from Russia again in Germany - now or in the winter. A government giving in to the more fringy hard right/hard left asking for that would not survive. The German-Russian relationship has been damaged for decades to come now.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
Putin already lost that game since he allowed most (all?) EU countries to fill their gas reserves beyond 90%.
For Germany, that's only a 2-1/2 month supply.
Maybe but that assumes zero LNG imports and zero gas from Norway, which will not be the case. According to Germany they have enough gas for the winter.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
But who is that? Ukraine should be fine with having Germany buy Russian gas since Germany keeps sending arms and push others to send arms. I don't see why the US would care either now that Germany is finally moving away from Russian gas. And Russia can just close the pipeline in a less destructive way.
It can be anyone. Could even be a private person. But yeah its definitely not Russia.
Yep, russia controls "the valve", so it doesn't need to destroy the pipelines, and the minute EU (well, mostly germany) decides to negiotiate, putin can open the valve.
With this, even if they negotiate, there won't be any gas soon.
So, it's bad for russia, bad for eu, and the only one being better of is USA... who was threathened to do exactly this more than once.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do we really need to embellish reality with trigger-words designed to be as inflammatory as possible? What do you want - even more outrage?
Since when is the truth a trigger-word? Wtf? They started a war. It's not "triggering" to state the facts.
The question is, why clamour for more dramatic language when its quite clear that the words used adequately communicate the situation, in the first place? Your outrage won't make the world a more peaceful place - those who skillfully use language to de-escalate, do however. If only that skill were more widespread, we might actually have diplomatic solutions to this problem...
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#77Quick Question: Didn't Russia already turn off all of the actual flow for these? I mean technically it was the Russian gas company ~~sighting~~ citing urgent maintenance rather than Putin himself with a big spanner. But either way, flows were at <1% capacity right?
Nord stream 2 was never operational, Nord stream 1 was in maintenance if I remember correctly. But it raises the question if there are ever going to be operational again..
It was in "maintenance", as claimed by the Russian end operators. Germany has successfully pressured Canada to send a replacement turbine to Russia (violating sanctions), after which the Russians said that the turbine isn't any good, it's missing some documents and they will not take and install it. Then Scholz decided to take a photo shoot in front of the massive turbine, looking all sad. The Paper Chancellor in full glory :D
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#78Who would benefit from this?
Gas prices were dropping, half what they were at the peak. Putin wants gas prices to remain high to punish the EU and increase his own revenues. Since this incident they’re climbing back up. There are other ways for russia to export the gas than nordstream 1. He may think he can force an opening of nordstream 2. Putin has made so many errors in judgment that no strategy is too insane to be considered reasonable in hi…
I assume the Russians have some sort of valve on their end of the pipe that they could switch off. That would be cheaper than blowing the pipe up, and also givem more negotiating leverage.
It probably wasn't them.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#79I think the Russian explanation is simple enough and don't believe we have to put tinfoil hat for this. We knew that this would be the result of sanctions on western tech and knowledge. I've met and talked a lot with a Russian/Khazak "oil engineer" (asylum seeker, hosted by my mom) and to be honest, his knowledge in thermodynamics was abyssimal and wouldn't qualify for "system dynamics 201" (loose translation, sorry)…
> I think the Russian explanation is simple enough and don't believe we have to put tinfoil hat for this.
How is the russian explanation simple? I mean, we all knew that Putin will pressure Europe with energy in exchange for a blind eye in Ukraine. But now, how can Putin even play that gambit?
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
Putin, because he gets an excuse to cut Germany off of Russian gas. It's game of chicken now: the West sends weapons to help Ukrainian army chase off all the Russian invaders, and Putin tries to make energy crisis in EU so severe that Europe is forced to negotiate with him, and accept Russian conquest of parts of the Ukraine. Whoever can stay on their course longer wins.
Putin has been telling Germany to certify and turn on Nord Stream 2 for gas - several times. Some folks who don't want normalisation of energy relationships decided to take this option away.
Sure, but Germany turning on NS2 is about as likely to happen as the US is to give in to Russian demands to stop sending arms to Ukraine. I cannot see any scenario where that happens so anyone sabotaging the pipelines just makes things unnecessarily complicated for no reason.