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Why do humans procrastinate?

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Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#71

Post by FrojoS »

WickyNilliams wrote: post #69
ramanujan wrote: post #30

There was a recent highly cited paper describing the concept of willpower as a measurable, physiological, depletable quantity, strongly affected by glucose levels: http://www.fed.cuhk.edu.hk/~lchang/material/Evolutionary/Bra... And there was a very interesting Metafilter thread from a few years ago that found that a small amount of alcohol overcame procrastination: http://ask.metafilter.com/22924/Why-does-alcohol-ove…

One drug that definitely doesn't help is cannabis. As a habitual smoker for over ten years I know this all too well. As of late I've started wondering whether the real damage of cannabis is not in it's health consequences but in it's ability to completely demotivate. As a complete coincidence I actually started writing a poem about this last night: Procrastination was higher on my to-do list, Than achieving all the t…

Isn't this knowledge very common? I think every second weed joke is about how you're not motivated to accomplish anything.

Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#72

Post by philwelch »

freemarketteddy wrote: post #35
ramanujan wrote: post #30

There was a recent highly cited paper describing the concept of willpower as a measurable, physiological, depletable quantity, strongly affected by glucose levels: http://www.fed.cuhk.edu.hk/~lchang/material/Evolutionary/Bra... And there was a very interesting Metafilter thread from a few years ago that found that a small amount of alcohol overcame procrastination: http://ask.metafilter.com/22924/Why-does-alcohol-ove…

In addition to all the four in this thread(glucose,alcohol,music and caffeine)...another tool and perhaps the most effective immediately....Adderall. (Warning:I am not a doctor,and you must fully understand the side effects before using even a mild amphetamine)

On Paul Erdos:

"After 1971 he also took amphetamines, despite the concern of his friends, one of whom (Ron Graham) bet him $500 that he could not stop taking the drug for a month.[12] Erdős won the bet, but complained that during his abstinence mathematics had been set back by a month: "Before, when I looked at a piece of blank paper my mind was filled with ideas. Now all I see is a blank piece of paper." After he won the bet, he promptly resumed his amphetamine use."

Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#73

Post by andylei »

fauigerzigerk wrote: post #55

This theory makes very little sense to me. First of all, I don't believe that it is rational to ignore time or impact on your life. Would you take 1 dollar today or 10 in a year? I think what matters more than the actual answer is that the choice has zero impact on your life either way. Would you take 1 billion today or 10 billion in a year? Is that even the same question? In terms of supposedly "rational" financial…

> I don't believe that it is rational to ignore time

It's not. The question is how you factor time into your discounting. Take the $1 vs $10 example. There are several risk factors at play here, and we can discount for each of them.

First is the time value of money. Let's be generous and give you a 5% risk free rate of return. That $10 is now worth about $9.50.

Next is just the default risk. What if the guy asking you the question doesn't pay in a year? This risk, however, is artificial. We can modify the experiment to compensate for it: the guy can put it in an escrow account guaranteed to pay you in a year. No discount.

Catastrophe risk: what if the bank underwriting the escrow account goes under / what if the entire banking system is destroyed / what if dollars are no longer valuable / what if I'm too dead to enjoy the dollars? Let's be generous and say the combined possibility that some catastrophe will render the $9.50 worthless to you is 20%. Now the money is worth about $7.6.

Now the question is, what is this money actual worth to you in terms of utility. Suppose your total wealth was $100,000. $1 is 0.0001% of your wealth. The $7.6 is 7.6 times that value. That means that in order for the $7.6 to have a smaller impact on your life than the $1, your wealth would have to increase by over 7.6 times in the next year. If you're in a situation where the probability that your overall wealth will increase by over 7.6 times in the next year, then your decision to take the dollar now is likely rational. If not, your decision is not utility maximizing (and thus irrational).

Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#74

Post by WickyNilliams »

FrojoS wrote: post #71
WickyNilliams wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One drug that definitely doesn't help is cannabis. As a habitual smoker for over ten years I know this all too well. As of late I've started wondering whether the real damage of cannabis is not in it's health consequences but in it's ability to completely demotivate. As a complete coincidence I actually started writing a poem about this last night: Procrastination was higher on my to-do list, Than achieving all the t…

Isn't this knowledge very common? I think every second weed joke is about how you're not motivated to accomplish anything.

You're quite right, i was in a bit of a rush writing that original comment so perhaps didn't elucidate enough. The point i tried to make was that the major damage that cannabis can do is to your ability to achieve, the consequence of which is probably far more widespread and damaging to our culture and advancement than any other ill-effect.

Now i'd be lying if i said i was a drop-out who hasn't achieved anything in the last ten years - i've done remarkably well, putting myself through university, graduating, getting a good job - but there's so much i want to do when i'm not working that i just put off because i get home, get stoned and suddenly nothing is boring - i could probably stare at a wall for hours without a hint of tedium. And therein lies the real point, that cannabis eliminates boredom. Without boredom people don't feel the need to push themselves, try new things, achieve what they want etc.

I've just been postulating on the issue of procrastination so much recently, this post really struck a chord. Also it was a strange coincidence that i wrote a poem on topic yesterday, as i literally never write poems; and i hoped someone might like the excerpt.

Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#75

Post by fauigerzigerk »

andylei wrote: post #73
fauigerzigerk wrote: post #55

This theory makes very little sense to me. First of all, I don't believe that it is rational to ignore time or impact on your life. Would you take 1 dollar today or 10 in a year? I think what matters more than the actual answer is that the choice has zero impact on your life either way. Would you take 1 billion today or 10 billion in a year? Is that even the same question? In terms of supposedly "rational" financial…

> I don't believe that it is rational to ignore time It's not. The question is how you factor time into your discounting. Take the $1 vs $10 example. There are several risk factors at play here, and we can discount for each of them. First is the time value of money. Let's be generous and give you a 5% risk free rate of return. That $10 is now worth about $9.50. Next is just the default risk. What if the guy asking yo…

The problem with your concept of utility maximization is that utility is subjective and non linear. Non linear is not the same as irrational. For me, 10 billion isn't nearly 10 times as useful as 1 billion. And if I had 10 billion and you offered me another 100 billion for debugging your 1990s style Word Basic macro I wouldn't do it. But all of that would change in an instant if I was in love with a woman who adored men with a net worth of more than 100 billion. Is that irrational? I believe not.

Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#76

Post by dangero »

mih wrote: post #68
dangero wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was an amazing hook and I feel like the book was talking exactly about me. It was actually very reassuring to know how normal I am. Not sure if you're associated with this book, but I think I'm sold.

Just to make it clear, I am not associated with the book in any way, but impulsively bought it on Amazon after seeing this video. As I pore through subsequent chapters, it strikes a chord with me and is based on well researched psychological experiments conducted at various universities. It's worth a buy imho.

Yeah I bought the book last night and I have thoroughly enjoyed the first two chapters. Thanks for the recommendation.

Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#77

Post by andylei »

fauigerzigerk wrote: post #75
andylei wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't believe that it is rational to ignore time It's not. The question is how you factor time into your discounting. Take the $1 vs $10 example. There are several risk factors at play here, and we can discount for each of them. First is the time value of money. Let's be generous and give you a 5% risk free rate of return. That $10 is now worth about $9.50. Next is just the default risk. What if the guy asking yo…

The problem with your concept of utility maximization is that utility is subjective and non linear. Non linear is not the same as irrational. For me, 10 billion isn't nearly 10 times as useful as 1 billion. And if I had 10 billion and you offered me another 100 billion for debugging your 1990s style Word Basic macro I wouldn't do it. But all of that would change in an instant if I was in love with a woman who adored…

my comment doesn't assume too much about the shape of your utility curve except that it is continuous and monotonic.

multiplying everything by a billion does change things, but it doesn't say anything about the rationality of the people who choose 1 dollar now over 10 in the future. we're also not comparing 100 billion dollars to the love a woman. we're comparing 1 dollar now to 10 dollars in a year.

my argument is that if you have any kind of sane (rational) discounting system, comparing 1 dollar now to 10 in the future is at worst like comparing 1 dollar now to 7.6 dollars now, with the only uncertainty being your changing utility preferences for dollars. if you honestly believe that the probability that your utility preference for marginal dollars will change by more 7.6 times in one year is greater than 0.5, then choosing 1 dollar may not be irrational. but for most people, that is highly unlikely. thus, your discounting system and thus preferences may be irrational.

Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#78

Post by im3w1l »

andylei wrote: post #77
fauigerzigerk wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with your concept of utility maximization is that utility is subjective and non linear. Non linear is not the same as irrational. For me, 10 billion isn't nearly 10 times as useful as 1 billion. And if I had 10 billion and you offered me another 100 billion for debugging your 1990s style Word Basic macro I wouldn't do it. But all of that would change in an instant if I was in love with a woman who adored…

my comment doesn't assume too much about the shape of your utility curve except that it is continuous and monotonic. multiplying everything by a billion does change things, but it doesn't say anything about the rationality of the people who choose 1 dollar now over 10 in the future. we're also not comparing 100 billion dollars to the love a woman. we're comparing 1 dollar now to 10 dollars in a year. my argument is t…

How much effort do you have to put in to get those dollars in a year? An email, a call, actually going somewhere? This could easily render the value of those 10$ below 0

Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#79

Post by freemarketteddy »

philwelch wrote: post #72
freemarketteddy wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition to all the four in this thread(glucose,alcohol,music and caffeine)...another tool and perhaps the most effective immediately....Adderall. (Warning:I am not a doctor,and you must fully understand the side effects before using even a mild amphetamine)

On Paul Erdos: "After 1971 he also took amphetamines, despite the concern of his friends, one of whom (Ron Graham) bet him $500 that he could not stop taking the drug for a month.[12] Erdős won the bet, but complained that during his abstinence mathematics had been set back by a month: "Before, when I looked at a piece of blank paper my mind was filled with ideas. Now all I see is a blank piece of paper." After he wo…

thanks for sharing that!

Re: Why do humans procrastinate?

#80

Post by freemarketteddy »

WickyNilliams wrote: post #74
FrojoS wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this knowledge very common? I think every second weed joke is about how you're not motivated to accomplish anything.

You're quite right, i was in a bit of a rush writing that original comment so perhaps didn't elucidate enough. The point i tried to make was that the major damage that cannabis can do is to your ability to achieve, the consequence of which is probably far more widespread and damaging to our culture and advancement than any other ill-effect. Now i'd be lying if i said i was a drop-out who hasn't achieved anything in t…

haha i like your poem...How I deal with cannabis is that I never do it alone...only when I get together with old buddies...that limits me to doing it once in a cpl months and with that frequency I find it therapautic for soothing my mind!
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