71–79 of 79 posts
How have I never heard of longbets.org before? This site is fascinating.
(I even copied over most of the Long Bets: https://encrypted.google.com/search?q=longbets%2Eorg%20site%... )
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Hrm ... interesting thought: is a market dependent on financial services analogous to one dependent on natural resources? Particularly if those financial services are extractive in nature?
> Particularly if those financial services are extractive in nature? Could you elaborate on that sentence? What do you mean by "extractive"? In the context of natural resources, I take that word to imply that the resource is depleted (e.g. non-renewable). Do you have a difference sense in mind?
Some financial activities -- traditional financing of productive economic activity with real returns -- actually generates productive financial and economic activity. Other forms of finance -- essentially create liquidity based on existing assets, but don't actually turn that liquidity into something productive. Say, roughly, a HELOC. Or they simply squeeze payments out of population that's poorly equipped to refuse them: fees, fines, and penalties added to many financial and services contracts.
I'd argue that both of the latter are "extractive" in that rather than promoting economic activity, they serve to convert some illiquid asset class (or population) into a currency pump for the benefit of the financier.
I don't know if computerized trading falls into this model but I'm inclined to think it does, and would very much favor a transactions tax to put limits on this sort of activity. I suspect the bigger problem is that these systems are poorly understood and have very large downside potential through inadvertent (or deliberate) feedback loops. Think Flash Crash.
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The problem with longbets is that you can post a challenge without being required to accept a bet. I emailed the organization and they helpfully confirmed this. >[Me:] "Must the makers of predictions (eventually) accept a challenger? I get the impression that several of these predictions are dubious yet have been sitting for awhile without forming a bet. It seems against the spirit of the site to allow predictors to…
The problem with longbets is that you can post a challenge without being required to accept a bet. That's pretty shady, especially since it sends a misleading message to see a bet being offered with no challenger - without knowing about that part of the policy, I'd assume that meant nobody had the balls to take them up on the bet, not that they themselves didn't have the balls to accept any challengers! Longbets shou…
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The problem with longbets is that you can post a challenge without being required to accept a bet. I emailed the organization and they helpfully confirmed this. >[Me:] "Must the makers of predictions (eventually) accept a challenger? I get the impression that several of these predictions are dubious yet have been sitting for awhile without forming a bet. It seems against the spirit of the site to allow predictors to…
The problem with longbets is that you can post a challenge without being required to accept a bet. That's pretty shady, especially since it sends a misleading message to see a bet being offered with no challenger - without knowing about that part of the policy, I'd assume that meant nobody had the balls to take them up on the bet, not that they themselves didn't have the balls to accept any challengers! Longbets shou…
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Another interesting feature: there are plenty of 'funding advisors' that can help connecting you to a right VC[1] for a fee Same in the US. I think Massachusetts might have a law against it? But as another Eastern European currently in the US, I agree with you and know what you are trying to say.
I'm wondering why such market exists in the US. Assuming there is enough VC capital, why would you need an intermediary?
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There was a news item in the past year or two about brokerage fees in the US for IPOs. The spread on fees was ... distinctly narrow. Especially as compared with other markets (EU?). Strongly suggesting collusive / oligopolistic behavior. June of this year. Here we go: http://www.businessweek.com/1998/45/b3603184.htm http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/06/07/the-us-ipo-...
Unfortunately, this is a market with a high barrier to entry, since IB's reputation for many investors is a proxy for the quality of due diligence. It's hard to disrupt this market unless companies will be willing to do their IPOs in other markets, like Europe or Asia.
Though both approaches have been tried, I suppose. Microsoft would be an instance in which an illegal monopoly (read the court findings, folks) was not split, as many commentators suggested, but regulated. It's arguable that this did result in a loss of standing as a monopoly, though how much of this is a matter of a shifting computer market (servers, mobile, cloud) and how much an erosion of Microsoft's still overwhelmingly dominant share of desktop OS and office suite markets is also of interest.
NB: I think Microsoft should have been partitioned, and that it still behaves as if it had and seeks an illegal monopoly, though its power has been greatly diminished.
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> Particularly if those financial services are extractive in nature? Could you elaborate on that sentence? What do you mean by "extractive"? In the context of natural resources, I take that word to imply that the resource is depleted (e.g. non-renewable). Do you have a difference sense in mind?
I wondered what he meant by "extractive" financial services, too. >In the context of natural resources, I take that word to imply that the resource is depleted (e.g. non-renewable). Is incorrect. Lumbering and agriculture are extractive industries but not "non-renewable". All primary production of resources are "extractive" industries.
I don't see sustainable timber, agriculture, fishing, or solar/wind/geothermal/hydroelectric power as extractive.
Wikipedia appears to agree with me, likewise the World Bank: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extractive_industry http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTOGMC/0,,c...
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I have not met any Russians who were proficient in English, that learned it locally in school. I have met Russians who were fairly good with English that learned it after living in the US for a while. Compare that to, for example, someone from the Philippines who will be proficient enough in English that you think they are an American.
Not arguin against you, but I think your example was a pretty poor one: The Philippines was basically owned and ran by the US for a hundred years. So when discussing English skills, it is not a good example of a "regular other country".
In my own personal business, I estimate without native English proficiency my employees would be worth 1/5th or less of what they are to me now. I would have to hire an bilingual manager to run projects, and that person would have to be paid a lot. My turnover would be higher and the accuracy of instructions would be diminished, thus resulting in slower project execution times.
Irregardless of the non-ideal situations of the past, current citizens with English proficiency benefit enormously -- in the form of money.
Being proficient in English is a really big deal. As an American child I was told over and over again that it was important to learn a foreign language to increase my ability to get a job. As an adult, I found the opposite, that English above all other languages was critical in running a successful international business.
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Not arguin against you, but I think your example was a pretty poor one: The Philippines was basically owned and ran by the US for a hundred years. So when discussing English skills, it is not a good example of a "regular other country".
I never said the Philippines was a "regular other country", thus why is this in quotes? In my own personal business, I estimate without native English proficiency my employees would be worth 1/5th or less of what they are to me now. I would have to hire an bilingual manager to run projects, and that person would have to be paid a lot. My turnover would be higher and the accuracy of instructions would be diminished, t…
You used the Philippines as a counter-example to Russians not having very good skills in English. I think the example was badly chosen: Like if you choose to compare them to Canada or United Kingdom. Of course there are countries where people have better skills in English than in Russia. But I think comparison with one of these extreme examples misses the point -- you should compare Russia to other countries that are competing for being "the world leader in software development".
I do think however that we are discussing about a bit different things though, as I didn't understand how your reply had anything to do with my message -- except for the double quote part.