Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

AMD passes Intel in market cap

cnbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 221 posts

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#71

Post by [deleted] »

game-of-throws wrote: post #62
The_Colonel wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting is much more risky than buying stocks. Compare: 1) I'm confident that in the long term, company X will grow in value. I invest $1000 and will wait however long it will take, 10 or more years. I risk these $1000 only, but can earn multiple of it. 2) I'm confident that in the long term, company Y will decrease in value. I can short it with $1000, however either I risk much more than $1000 or I can't set the ti…

There are ways to bet against stocks that don't expose you to unlimited downside.

[deleted]

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#72

Post by manquer »

unethical_ban wrote: post #27
huangc10 wrote: post #13

Remember the days when AMD was like $3/share and Intel was like crushing it. The world really has changed in the last decade.

I bought at $5 and sold at 15 thinking I was so clever. Then I bought at 80 and held through 160, now it's at 96. I'm a long term bull on AMD, but I think the rocket left the atmosphere already. To me it's a blue chip. Intel nor AMD will ever go out of business, unless and until x86 itself dies and neither can pivot. AMD has a lock on consoles, it is the only competitor to Intel in x86, it basically can't go out of b…

With increasing ARM both on servers and laptops(Macs) x86 itself may wane in marketshare .

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#73

Post by Aloha »

itsoktocry wrote: post #61
Aloha wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont think they can continue to grow at that rate and preserve their gross margin. The high end part of the market isnt large enough to sustain 20m cars a year. To give you an idea, for scale, the two largest producers made 10m each in 2019 roughly respectively - and those two are VW and Toyota. I cannot see in any way for Tesla to displace that many units and maintain their margins at the level they have them. The…

> and maintain their margins at the level they have them. Tesla's margins shrunk quite a bit last earnings report, so I agree. Selling high-end cars in a niche market is easier than selling 20 million cars annually (which no one has ever done before).

I'm skeptical that anyone can make 20m cars a year. It also doesnt surprise me that Teslas margins have shrank, I think the price of their vehicles is rendered somewhat inelastic because of the preorder-purchase contract system they use. The vehicle price is more or less fixed at the time of order based on my understanding, and while they can retroactively increase prices, it will likely result in abandonment of the order.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#74

Post by sbf501 »

elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

This is implicit when understanding market cap. Market cap means yes, a certain number of people willing to buy Tesla believe it is worth the combined cap of the next 10 auto makers. It doesn't matter if that is right or wrong, all that matters is that stock traders believe it. If they didn't, the stock wouldn't be that price. That is literally how the stock market / market cap works: if someone will buy it at that price, that is what it is worth.

We can all offer our armchair theories about Tesla's actual worth, but until traders start to move en masse, that is what it is worth right now.

I think you are asking a different question: will Tesla be more profitable than the other 10 manufacturers in the long run? Because right now they are not. Personally. I don't think they will ever scale to a commodity car as long as Elon is at the helm. I don't think he has the attention span to make a mass produced car, his ego likes doing something novel and he likes luxury. To make profit like the top 10, Tesla has to become a commoner car. I don't think he can pull off an iPhone move, Tesla may always just be a Mac.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#75

Post by axlee »

njarboe wrote: post #51
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

Tesla's only claim to profitability is government-enforced carbon compensation laws. Tesla is basically a greenwashing insurance that masquerades as a real automaker, don't get fooled.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#76

Post by the8472 »

StevePerkins wrote: post #5

I remember the first computer that I ever built (it was cheaper to do it yourself back at the dawn of globalization). I used an AMD 386 rather than an Intel 386. Simply for the youthful reasons that I liked AMD's logo better, and I've always tended to root for the underdog. I'm not much of a PC gamer, and so I haven't built a machine from scratch or thought much about individual components in decades. But there's a s…

> I'm not much of a PC gamer, and so I haven't built a machine from scratch or thought much about individual components in decades.

There's a grown-up version: build/videoediting/whatever-machine with a Threadripper ;)

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#77

Post by parkingrift »

njarboe wrote: post #51
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

I doubt that Tesla can continue to grow 50% YoY as soon as 2023. The Model S, X, and Y are extremely expensive compared to the competition.

I’m in the market for an electric SUV right now. The Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ioniq 5 both seem legitimately better than the Model Y, and they are substantially less expensive.

The Model Y AWD Long Range is $68,000. The Ioniq 5 SEL is $52,000. Tesla has historically never had to compete on price, but those days are ending. Either Tesla will lower their prices and their margins, or they will suffer lower sales. Competing on price is the future Tesla desperately wanted to avoid, but Tesla has not been able to scale fast enough to avoid it.

Good luck to Tesla shareholders. It’s a car company that the market is valuing as if it were a high growth tech startup.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#78

Post by avmich »

sbf501 wrote: post #74
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

This is implicit when understanding market cap. Market cap means yes, a certain number of people willing to buy Tesla believe it is worth the combined cap of the next 10 auto makers. It doesn't matter if that is right or wrong, all that matters is that stock traders believe it. If they didn't, the stock wouldn't be that price. That is literally how the stock market / market cap works: if someone will buy it at that p…

> and he likes luxury

I would argue otherwise, his movement in the recent past showing.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#79

Post by tsimionescu »

wavefunction22 wrote: post #49
mimikatz wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes we do, that's literally what a marketcap is. People who are sure it isn't correct can beat against it and profit in the correction.

I think market cap is a bit misleading. Enterprise value (market cap + net debt) is a more consistent valuation measure. The house analogy is a helpful one. Let's say I buy a million dollar house but I only have $100K of equity in it so far. My market cap is $100K and my debt is $900K. I'd argue that the house is still worth a million dollars. This is important here since Tesla has much less debt vs. the rest of the…

But they also have far, far fewer assets, and even farther fewer actual cars.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#80

Post by toast0 »

nickserv wrote: post #38
StevePerkins wrote: post #5

I remember the first computer that I ever built (it was cheaper to do it yourself back at the dawn of globalization). I used an AMD 386 rather than an Intel 386. Simply for the youthful reasons that I liked AMD's logo better, and I've always tended to root for the underdog. I'm not much of a PC gamer, and so I haven't built a machine from scratch or thought much about individual components in decades. But there's a s…

I have a bit of that root for the underdog mentality too, but my support of AMD in the last few years has been due in large part for their Linux support. Not having to worry about 3D drivers working on a kernel update is such a nice thing. Of course, when I started, Linux was very much the underdog, and not on billions of devices.

> my support of AMD in the last few years has been due in large part for their Linux support.

> Not having to worry about 3D drivers working on a kernel update is such a nice thing.

Intel does a pretty good job of kernel GPU drivers too, I thought? Their network card drivers aren't bad either. And they usually support FreeBSD as well as Linux, although sometimes Linux support comes much earlier than FreeBSD.

Post reply on HN