People seem to be discounting the fact that Elon still owns 9% of the company and is one of the largest shareholders. He just wants a chance to renegotiate as he know if he actually walks away he will lose around $5B.
Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
71–80 of 119 posts
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
An internet protocol for short message services with an established user base. This was Dorsey's vision, and one Musk appeared to nod to. A t.co product could compete with Signal, Slack, and WhatsApp. Further Slack has wasted what I thought was a huge opportunity to create a Twitter competitor where channels could have public facing boards that published curated highlights from Slack chat. They could have done federa…
> A t.co product could compete with Signal, Slack, and WhatsApp. Entering a crowded and poorly differentiated market where there already huge players with major network effects is the plan? Seems unlikely. More likely he wanted to do exactly what he said: reduce content moderation (hence expenses) and get people to pay for verified accounts. But none of that is likely to pay back the 20B premium he'd have to pay for…
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not quite: 1. Twitter represented that they made sample, exercised judgement, and could be wrong 2. That is hard to falsify 3. For it to matter in this lawsuit, it would have to be so false that it materially adversely affects the company If 10% of users are bots, #1 wouldn’t even be false. If 20% of them were, it might be, but you’d still have to cause a material adverse effect. Like a large change in expected reven…
Even 20% would not fly, winning with MAE in Delaware is basically impossible - the one case where a buyer actually proved MAE there is still referred to as unicorn. Given that Elon waived due diligence and even openly talked about the bot problem, this would probably still be a coin toss if he somehow proves that there are 90% bots.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#74Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#75Off-topic, but am I the only one who finds it incredibly grating to speak of Elon Musk with his first name? You don't do that with other people, other billionaires or tech people or whatever, you say Bezos, not Jeff, and Bill Gates, not Bill. What gives? I find this irrationally annoying.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#76Off-topic, but am I the only one who finds it incredibly grating to speak of Elon Musk with his first name? You don't do that with other people, other billionaires or tech people or whatever, you say Bezos, not Jeff, and Bill Gates, not Bill. What gives? I find this irrationally annoying.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#77People seem to be discounting the fact that Elon still owns 9% of the company and is one of the largest shareholders. He just wants a chance to renegotiate as he know if he actually walks away he will lose around $5B.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#78Off-topic, but am I the only one who finds it incredibly grating to speak of Elon Musk with his first name? You don't do that with other people, other billionaires or tech people or whatever, you say Bezos, not Jeff, and Bill Gates, not Bill. What gives? I find this irrationally annoying.
Alternatively, Elon is a "normal" celebrity like Kanye. It might be more common to refer to people in that domain by their first name. I'd say Elon is closer to Kanye when it comes to public perception.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
That discount would be built into either Elon's buy price or Twitter's nominal price if deal falls through.
I could believe that there is a 100% chance Elon is forced to buy twitter at $54, but if the deal takes 10 years to close, I'm not buying in at $38.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
> A t.co product could compete with Signal, Slack, and WhatsApp. Entering a crowded and poorly differentiated market where there already huge players with major network effects is the plan? Seems unlikely. More likely he wanted to do exactly what he said: reduce content moderation (hence expenses) and get people to pay for verified accounts. But none of that is likely to pay back the 20B premium he'd have to pay for…
A fully adopted protocol with whole new products on top of it will make the 20B back. It's a platform killer. Elon's basically building an internet Deathstar, and we can only hope he will use it for good.
The whole media landscape seems to be entertaining itself and it's audience with that wholly unoriginal one, cuz they sure love their rich fictional anti-heroes.