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Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

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Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#71
post #55

Humans are so funny. Blaming the flawed tools we create for the problems caused by using them in all of our flawed manners. Bitcoin is a tool, like any other. Tools can be used constructively or destructively. The ease and affordability of transferring remittances internationally is the single most useful case for Bitcoin. In those instances value is not kept in BTC except for the duration of the transfer so it is no…

> In the future I expect to see BTC to mainly utilized for these types of financial transfers and less as a long-term store of value. I have, in Sweden, the options of Swish and SEPA to transfer money. Swish is internal to Swedish residents, so to anyone who has Swish tied to their bank account I can instantly send money knowing their phone number. With SEPA Instant Transfer I can send money anywhere in the EU, up to…

Absolutely correct. There are plenty of payment solutions like SEPA coming out in different markets, now. Money transfer is a known problem. These work brilliantly in contries that are not controlled by the most tyrannical and/or non-functional regimes, as long as you stay within the law. (Even China has such systems in Alipay and Wechat Pay)

So what crypto adds (beyond a hypothetical store of value) is the ability to keep your assets and transactins invisible (or nearly invisible) to the government.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#72

Bitcoin is the solution to the fundamentally broken debt-driven economy. Critics don't get it because they lump it together with "cryptocurrency". While technically a cryptocurrency, Bitcoin does not exhibit any of the ponzi, scam-like shenanigans that are easily observable in shitcoins. Yes, there is a lot of crazy stuff happening with wash trading - but this is a byproduct of lack of regulation and has nothing to d…

I have a deep understanding of all of the latter. I work in capital markets daily. I do not know anyone serious with my level of experience in the actual markets who thinks bitcoin is the answer. There are several issues with tradFi. Pointing that out is like saying the sun will rise tomorrow. In some cases, people are working on a fix. In other cases, the inefficiency and criminal activity is not ceasing because the…

> For simple terms since you’re obviously not in the field, ask yourself where is money created? If you say central banks, go back to Econ 101 and study better this time.

The Fed itself directly created 8T USD since 2009 (QE). Some of it in the past two years even went straight to consumer's pockets via the Treasury in the form of stimmies and forgivable PPP loans (helicopter money/MMT).

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

That's a non-trivial amount, 41% of total M2 and 61% of the increase in M2 since 2009:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

Where did the rest of the increase in M2 come from? Fractional reserve lending by banks -- at interest rates artificially suppressed by Fed policies specifically to encourage lending/money creation.

Before the Fed was created in 1913, USD was created by fractional reserve lending by banks at market determined interest rates and the marginal increase in monetary gold and silver from mining output (typically 1-2%/yr).

This historic monetary system was dynamically unstable as mining output was uncorrelated with natural business cycles and unbackstopped banks were subject to runs during downturns. The Fed was created to solve these problems, specifically the panic of 1907.

Over time it's mission evolved from being a lender of last resort to actively targeting employment and consumer prices. Since the 1987 crash however, this official mandate was effectively replaced with one targeting asset prices - primarily stocks and houses (wealth effect targeting).

Normal business cycles were now increasingly distorted by the fed Fed responding to (or not wanting to hurt) asset prices for fear it would psychologically affect consumer and business spending and eventually employment.

This lead to a new instability: bigger booms created or exaggerated by easy Fed money, followed by bigger busts during the tightening phase.

Each boom/bust cycle led to more micromanagement by the Fed and thus more instability. Since 2008 (QE), and especially after 2020 (helicopter money) they have gone completely off the rails as seen by the M2 chart above and soaring consumer prices. "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon - Milton Friedman"

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#73

I usually brush aside these doomsday articles about crypto, but the linked article is really depressing: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-25/sam-bankm... I remember nicer days when crypto had some value, and yes exchanges were already shady and did a lot of washing, but there was clearly a closer approximation to market sentiment and real world use cases. Nowadays everything seems to be revolve around…

The thing they describe as the box is literally a Ponzi scheme. You put in some money and you get high guaranteed return. You have money, and you even can cash out some unless too many people try to cash out at the same time. Then it turns out there's no money to cover the returns. Key innovation that further obfuscates this is that instead of cashing out directly you might use IOUs from the Ponzi scheme as a collate…

It’s not a Ponzi scheme. It’s a bubble—the belief is that prices will rise on the open market.

You get tokens for putting money in the box. You can sell the tokens on an exchange later for cash. The cash comes from exchange participants, not box people. All the box people receive the tokens they expect. They don’t receive tokens from new box people.

If it’s 1995 and Toys R Us is giving away Beanie Babies to the first 250,000 Elmo buyers, that’s not a Ponzi. If somebody buys lots of Elmos to flip Beanie Babies knowing 250,000 Beanie Babies are going to hit the market, they are delusional. It’s still not a Ponzi. It’s a bubble.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#74
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the future I expect to see BTC to mainly utilized for these types of financial transfers and less as a long-term store of value. I have, in Sweden, the options of Swish and SEPA to transfer money. Swish is internal to Swedish residents, so to anyone who has Swish tied to their bank account I can instantly send money knowing their phone number. With SEPA Instant Transfer I can send money anywhere in the EU, up to…

Absolutely correct. There are plenty of payment solutions like SEPA coming out in different markets, now. Money transfer is a known problem. These work brilliantly in contries that are not controlled by the most tyrannical and/or non-functional regimes, as long as you stay within the law. (Even China has such systems in Alipay and Wechat Pay) So what crypto adds (beyond a hypothetical store of value) is the ability t…

> is the ability to keep your assets and transactins invisible (or nearly invisible) to the government.

It's only invisible if you got way out of the way of ergonomics to use cryptocurrencies and try to keep them into an anonymous wallet. The moment your wallet address is figured out all of your transfers in history are an open book, by definition of a public ledger.

So anonymity from government is definitely not a real feature of this usage...

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#76

Bitcoin is the solution to the fundamentally broken debt-driven economy. Critics don't get it because they lump it together with "cryptocurrency". While technically a cryptocurrency, Bitcoin does not exhibit any of the ponzi, scam-like shenanigans that are easily observable in shitcoins. Yes, there is a lot of crazy stuff happening with wash trading - but this is a byproduct of lack of regulation and has nothing to d…

I have a deep understanding of all of the latter. I work in capital markets daily. I do not know anyone serious with my level of experience in the actual markets who thinks bitcoin is the answer. There are several issues with tradFi. Pointing that out is like saying the sun will rise tomorrow. In some cases, people are working on a fix. In other cases, the inefficiency and criminal activity is not ceasing because the…

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#77
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing they describe as the box is literally a Ponzi scheme. You put in some money and you get high guaranteed return. You have money, and you even can cash out some unless too many people try to cash out at the same time. Then it turns out there's no money to cover the returns. Key innovation that further obfuscates this is that instead of cashing out directly you might use IOUs from the Ponzi scheme as a collate…

It’s not a Ponzi scheme. It’s a bubble—the belief is that prices will rise on the open market. You get tokens for putting money in the box. You can sell the tokens on an exchange later for cash. The cash comes from exchange participants, not box people. All the box people receive the tokens they expect. They don’t receive tokens from new box people. If it’s 1995 and Toys R Us is giving away Beanie Babies to the first…

Bitcoin is a bubble. Protocol that arbitratily rewards holding is what makes this Ponzi.

Awarding tokens without efficient mechanism to destroy them causes inflation when speed of printing exceeds the speed of raising demand for them. And there's no way to correct it so inflation can turn into hyperinflation and run on bank and collapse of the whole scheme.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, yes? That's what the article is about, the cryptocurrency space. What subjects do you think it should discuss instead?

There is a technological foundation that gets lost between all the money games that are being played on top of it and gets ignored or dismissed as a result, so you get opinions like "Bitcoin Is A Hideous Monstrosity Made Out Of Computers And Greed That Must Be Destroyed Before It Devours The World". There is no room for discussion here, and it's depressing to see how many people want to throw the baby out with the ba…

> The blockchain, smart contracts and NFTs are amazing technologies that could do wonders for mankind

Like what? I'm seriously. (Not trolling, not trying to feed fires.)

To me the whole thing seems bad, period, but I'm willing to entertain the idea that I'm wrong.

FWIW, I think "crypto" et. al. (in quotes because to me the term means "cryptography") is pointless because the Earth is small relative to the speed of light. Once we go interplanetary maybe there is a use for blockchain &c., but until then trustworthy centralized systems are obviously better.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#79

Many of my Ukraininan/Russian friends would not be alive today if it wasn't for crypto, same goes for many journalists and innocent civilians that escaped controlling governments, war zones, hyperinflation etc. Show me another asset that you can take with you in times of crisis on a usb stick or piece of paper, and transact without middle-men globally. A significant number of people live in places where saying/doing…

> Dunno why you would fight against a fair, open, censorship-resistant, global financial system

If that's all it was then you would be correct, only nasty folks would be against it. But that's not all it is, or even the main thing it is. The same qualities that make it useful for your friends during a war also make it useful for various sorts of crime, but all the time not just under (what should be) highly unusual and dangerous circumstances.

The fight here is all of us against the dictators and warmongers. If we work to create a "fair, open, censorship-resistant, global financial system" together we can do that without enabling scammers and crooks.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#80
Yeah yeah. Bitcoin is an open financial network that anybody can use and nobody controls and is secured by energy. What an amazing, historical feat of human ingenuity. It's neutral and just like the internet can be used by anybody. We're not going to apologise for its energy use.
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