Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

coindesk.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 83 posts

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#71

Post by sumy23 »

imustbeevil wrote: post #67
redox99 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. Fortunately in what sense? You're talking as if BTC was worth nothing. 19K is still a really good price if you zoom out. I understand young people whose first investment was BTC 1 year ago and bought at 60k and are -70%. But if you have been investing for 10+ years as you mention then there's nothing fortunate about not having bou…

The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. Yes, you could have bought Amazon stock in 2001. But if you're trying to judge rational investment strategy, 3 years of most people losing money sounds like a pretty significant figure. For reference, the S&P (boring market index) 3 year return is +50%. https://www.statmuse.com/…

When the price is higher, it’s likely more people were buying (more demand = higher prices). So if the media price is 20k, likely more than half lost money.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#72

Post by imustbeevil »

redox99 wrote: post #70
imustbeevil wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. Yes, you could have bought Amazon stock in 2001. But if you're trying to judge rational investment strategy, 3 years of most people losing money sounds like a pretty significant figure. For reference, the S&P (boring market index) 3 year return is +50%. https://www.statmuse.com/…

> The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. To be more specific there, the people that are down in that 3 year time range are only those that bought since DEC 2020 (so 1.5 years ago). But even if you ignore that, that doesn't sound bad at all. It makes no sense to compare to the SP500, of course the 500 largest companie…

> But going back to what I was commenting, my point was that if I was a 10+ year investor as parent said, I would not feel fortunate about not having bought bitcoin throughout my years. Of course very recent years are different.

That's exactly the point. Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. That's why their money is in USD and not Casino Chips. You're only looking at the outcome. You don't control the outcome. What you control is your methodology for your deployment of capital.

If you regret not investing in Bitcoin because you've established some new thesis, then now is the time to employ that thesis. But if you regret not gambling because someone else hit 00 and got 35 to 1, that's not investing.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#73

Post by ekianjo »

piva00 wrote: post #56
ekianjo wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because it's the top from the previous bull run. And cryptobro TAs everywhere were parroting incessantly the mantra "Bitcoin never falls below the top from the previous bullrun". Well, oops. So world events impacting the entire economy should have no effect on bitcoin whatsoever? That seems a little reductive.

According to cryptocurrency maximalists, the value of crypto should go up relative to fiat in times of uncertainty, it'd protect you from inflation, be a store of value in case of war, help transactions cross-borders and cross-sanctions, etc. All bullshit but that was the peddling going on for years, I don't think it's entirely reductive given how the cult tried to propagandise itself.

That might have been true in theory but since crypto has become a highly volatile speculative asset its the first thing that will be sold in times of crisis therefore bringing its value down.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#74

Post by [deleted] »

sumy23 wrote: post #71
imustbeevil wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. Yes, you could have bought Amazon stock in 2001. But if you're trying to judge rational investment strategy, 3 years of most people losing money sounds like a pretty significant figure. For reference, the S&P (boring market index) 3 year return is +50%. https://www.statmuse.com/…

When the price is higher, it’s likely more people were buying (more demand = higher prices). So if the media price is 20k, likely more than half lost money.

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#75

Post by redox99 »

imustbeevil wrote: post #72
redox99 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. To be more specific there, the people that are down in that 3 year time range are only those that bought since DEC 2020 (so 1.5 years ago). But even if you ignore that, that doesn't sound bad at all. It makes no sense to compare to the SP500, of course the 500 largest companie…

> But going back to what I was commenting, my point was that if I was a 10+ year investor as parent said, I would not feel fortunate about not having bought bitcoin throughout my years. Of course very recent years are different. That's exactly the point. Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. That's why their money is in USD and not Casino Chips. You're only looking at…

> Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years.

You can argue that it would have been a bad decision. Sometimes a bad decision ends in a good outcome due to luck, and a good decision ends in a bad outcome. And that doesn't make it less good or bad of a decision.

But happiness here is about the outcome. I would for sure would be happy to have gambled all my money into bitcoin 10 years ago now that we know the outcome. And I'm sure people would think that way too. I would be happier to have made a (arguably) bad decision and be rich, than be "right" but non rich.

So going back to what he said

> Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns.

It's the opposite. It was bad fortune, as if he had been (according to him) more ignorant he may have invested in bitcoin (even if it was a bad decision), and he would have made a lot of money with such investment.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#76

Post by imustbeevil »

redox99 wrote: post #75
imustbeevil wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But going back to what I was commenting, my point was that if I was a 10+ year investor as parent said, I would not feel fortunate about not having bought bitcoin throughout my years. Of course very recent years are different. That's exactly the point. Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. That's why their money is in USD and not Casino Chips. You're only looking at…

> Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. You can argue that it would have been a bad decision. Sometimes a bad decision ends in a good outcome due to luck, and a good decision ends in a bad outcome. And that doesn't make it less good or bad of a decision. But happiness here is about the outcome. I would for sure would be happy to have gambled all my money into bitcoin 1…

> But happiness here is about the outcome.

Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way to structure the narrative of your life.

> It's the opposite. It was bad fortune, as if he had been (according to him) more ignorant he may have invested in bitcoin (even if it was a bad decision), and he would have made a lot of money with such investment.

Or they might have invested in any of the periods where it went down, or in any of the exchanges or coins that collapsed, or gotten too much money too early in their life to develop the skills necessary to make it last. The problem with romanticizing some alternative past is that it's literally just fiction.

Investments are made against Expected Value. The goal is to have enough money to always be making more. Over a long time horizon, you need the probability of gain to be greater than the probability of loss, otherwise in an infinite game you will always run to 0. Engaging in gambling, as defined by Expected Value being less than Principle, is not a possible action for a rational actor interested in keeping their money forever.

You're looking at Bitcoin today like the game is over, like you bought 10 years ago and sell at $20K. What is your selling thesis? What made you buy 10 years ago that allows you to sell today? Or is it more likely that you'd keep holding? What are the probabilities of gain or loss over the next 10 years? 20? All investors see is a financial instrument with no backing, facilitating services we already have, at higher cost than existing solutions.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#77

Post by [deleted] »

imustbeevil wrote: post #76
redox99 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. You can argue that it would have been a bad decision. Sometimes a bad decision ends in a good outcome due to luck, and a good decision ends in a bad outcome. And that doesn't make it less good or bad of a decision. But happiness here is about the outcome. I would for sure would be happy to have gambled all my money into bitcoin 1…

> But happiness here is about the outcome. Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way…

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#78

Post by redox99 »

imustbeevil wrote: post #76
redox99 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. You can argue that it would have been a bad decision. Sometimes a bad decision ends in a good outcome due to luck, and a good decision ends in a bad outcome. And that doesn't make it less good or bad of a decision. But happiness here is about the outcome. I would for sure would be happy to have gambled all my money into bitcoin 1…

> But happiness here is about the outcome. Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way…

> Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then.

You might be an odd one out and value things differently, but going back to what you said

> Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years.

I'm sure most investors are happy if the outcome is more money, above anything else. After all that's the goal of investing.

> I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way to structure the narrative of your life.

I don't understand where this being unhappy thing comes from. I never mentioned such thing, so I don't know what you are arguing about. Also don't know what you mean by fake money. I'm talking about realized gains.

> Or they might have invested in any of the periods where it went down, or in any of the exchanges or coins that collapsed, or gotten too much money too early in their life to develop the skills necessary to make it last. The problem with romanticizing some alternative past is that it's literally just fiction.

The topic being discussed in the original comment is very clear: Bitcoin / Crypto in terms of price and fundamentals. Things such as "what if earning too much money too young ended up being bad?" are completely unrelated. You can make up any evil genie situation "he gets rich from crypto but he ends up being hit by a bus on his way to withdraw some cash" but such imaginary situations are besides the point.

The point is that having bought bitcoin and held for a few years would have been an outstanding investment in terms of returns, even if you disagree with it's price.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#79

Post by imustbeevil »

redox99 wrote: post #78
imustbeevil wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But happiness here is about the outcome. Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way…

> Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. You might be an odd one out and value things differently, but going back to what you said > Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. I'm sure most investors are happy if the out…

> The point is that having bought bitcoin and held for a few years would have been an outstanding investment in terms of returns, even if you disagree with it's price.

The point of the original comment was that they were happy not to invest. You disagreed. I attempted to explain how someone could be happy despite forgoing short term returns; mainly that the process by which you make those short term returns will produce long term losses.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#80

Post by badpun »

mettamage wrote: post #39
badpun wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s interesting in the sense that people used to say it’s an inflation hedge but it isn’t. It's still a strictly speculative instrument which target (say, in 50 years) value is still unknown - may be anything, for example $1k, $100k, $0. As such, it's currently a terrible inflation hedge. Precious metals are much better for that.

Checkout Patrick Boyle and the Plain Bagel. One of them gave convincing arguments that precious metals are not great inflation hedges. They tend to be academic yet practical about explaining financial markets.

They're great not in that you may have to wait for them 20+ year to catch up with inflation. Still way better than crypto though.
Post reply on HN