Live data from Hacker News

The semiconductor bust – still coming?

asianometry.substack.com

71–75 of 75 posts

Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?

#71
post #8

Hard to listen to someone talk about semiconductor/IC supply without mentioning China's cornering and hording of the semiconductor/IC market. There are bottlenecks in all electronic assemblies. Processors, crystals, specialized chips, etc. Things you just can't substitute. China identified many bottlenecks and strategically bought the entire supply. For thousands of items. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of ele…

I'm a Hardware Engineer who's lived through a few of these cycles now.

I personally wouldn't give the CCP that much credit, at all.

In my experience, the signs for this crunch in supply were there. The unusual part is maybe the speed at which it took hold and now the amount of time the shortages are lasting.

I was arguing for building inventory when the situation was (in my eyes) clearly getting bad, the business chose not to. Now its much much worse. A 5-10USD lithium charge controller goes for about 100USD (one seller had it for 500USD).

At least this way, the smaller businesses that get ignored by the big suppliers in times like these, can get supply if they can pay.

It's also not all just brokers. The outfit we use in China for PCB fabrication and population saw the signs and stocked up on inventory on their one initiative. They are the only reason we can make anything at all.

Fundamentally ICs are NOT a Just-in-time-able part. And if people actually read the book on JiT they'd understand that fact, and they would keep inventory.

When you see this time and again like me, it's hard to have sympathy for businesses that get caught out. (I do have sympathy for those that came prepared and are now stuck though).

Next crunch time (and there always is a next time in this business), I seriously think I'll just invest in IC inventory. Because honestly if I did this time, I probably could have retired early.

Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?

#72
post #67

1942: no punchcards 1952: no integrated circuits 1962: no war 1972: no pollution 1982: no cellphone 1992: no internet 2002: no sub-quadratic multiplication algorithm 2012: no moore's law 2022: no transistors 2032: no water

2033: no more laws

Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?

#73
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We desperately need raspberry pis for our product! Does anyone happen to know where we can find more? We are currently drifting back to x86 to deal with the immense shortage of Pis!

Just curious, what's your product?

The product I'm working on is in the smart locker space

Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?

#74
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just curious, what's your product?

The product I'm working on is in the smart locker space

Is that something you could get away with using an ESP8266 or ESP32 for? If so, that might solve your supply issue.

Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?

#75
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The product I'm working on is in the smart locker space

Is that something you could get away with using an ESP8266 or ESP32 for? If so, that might solve your supply issue.

Definitely not. But thanks for the suggestion. We really would need raspberry pis, and the alternative is just moving over to x86. We need to run a real linux distribution, with chromium or similar, as well as serial, canbus, wifi, modem... :)
Post reply on HN