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ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

thorconpower.com

71–80 of 246 posts

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#71
post #62
post #42

I understand the interest in baseload generation but don't see why there's so much interest in nuclear when low-tech concentrated solar in the desert can get the job done and scaling it up (and ensuring it's 100% safe) isn't a matter of R&D but just basic manufacturing. It strikes me a lot of the nuclear focus is (understandable, if not justifiable) interest in cool new technology. Ironically, with concentrated solar…

My understanding is that one of the big problems is transmission. It reduces the cost competitiveness when you have to factor in running many more high voltage transmission lines across the US. You need them to get the power from the desert to city centers that have the bulk of demand. Building transmission lines in the US is apparently very hard because there is a lot of red tape and politics and NIMBY-ism (to be fa…

Transmission is cheap.

But there is absolutely no need to site solar in deserts. It can be local, anywhere, coexisting neatly with other land use.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#72
post #42

I understand the interest in baseload generation but don't see why there's so much interest in nuclear when low-tech concentrated solar in the desert can get the job done and scaling it up (and ensuring it's 100% safe) isn't a matter of R&D but just basic manufacturing. It strikes me a lot of the nuclear focus is (understandable, if not justifiable) interest in cool new technology. Ironically, with concentrated solar…

One of the reasons why I favor nuclear is quite simple. And its not new technology. In fact, nuclear is the only green energy that ever has actually reliably powered an industrial nation.

France did it in 70/80 with technology not more advanced then what is available in the 60s.

They have not only proven that nuclear can do it, but also that nuclear scales amazingly well. There really is no technical question what so ever.

Any nation that wants to have a green grid could go to South Korea for example and if you tell them that you would like 20 or even 100 reactors and you are willing to pay, they would build you those reactors. Within 10 years you could likely finish 3-4 reactors a year.

Nuclear economics analysis shows that if you actually have a real industry with lots of people experienced in such plants, they become much, much cheaper and far more predictable on timeline.

Instead in the West every other nations has some unique plant design that they are only building once and its a totally new industrial project supported by an industry that barley exist anymore and had to shoestring since the 80s.

And we are no longer in the 70s, so unlike France with some small amount of effort we could actually avoid using 60s technology. Doing, and building modern plants (see Terrestrial Energy, Moltex Energy, ThorCon) would not only solve the Green energy problem. We could also eat up nuclear fuel waste and (hopefully) nuclear weapons material (as was done in the US with Soviet nukes). We could also produce far more medical isotopes and nuclear batteries for space exploration (and other uses).

We could also then use such plants to produce hydrogen (for chemical and industrial processes). Using highly efficient nuclear heat is a far better plan then electrolysis with renewables.

These modern plants would as be so much smaller that they could be produced in a factory that could likely produce 100s such reactors in a year, just like we can with airplanes or rockets. You transport them to the a prepared location and drop them into a big nuclear concrete reinforced hole and put a bit steel lid on top.

Nuclear is the lowest in land use, lowest in total resources mined, lowest in disruption to the environment and can be built pretty close to where people actually live, so its the lowest in required energy transmission as well. If you use modern nuclear its also doesn't use require water cooling anymore.

So, nuclear, even if you use shitty old nuclear would work and is proven to work. Using modern nuclear would improve on that 10-100x.

The only thing that prevented this from happening in the 70/80s is that coal was cheaper and the nuclear scare made politicians not interested in pushing it anyway. Today its totally clear that coal killed 100-1000x more people and we are actually willing to invest into clean energy.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#73
post #69
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why there's so much interest in nuclear when low-tech concentrated solar in the desert can get the job done and scaling it up (and ensuring it's 100% safe) isn't a matter of R&D but just basic manufacturing. Solar is dependent on the time of day (as the sister comments pointed out) and also on weather. Plus, you need to get the energy from the desert to wherever it's needed - this is non-trivial for densely populat…

Disinformation is not welcome here There is absolutely no need for deserts, or for single-use solar farms anywhere. Solar coexists with roofs, parking lots, reservoirs and canals, and pasture, improving each.

The grandparent explicitly asked why solar in the desert is not considered as a solution. Also, pointing out the actual flaws of a specific approach is not disinformation.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#74
post #66
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will build out storage, and transmission lines, to "get us through the night".

I hope we will, the problem currently is that this is not competitive compared to just burning natural gas. This is because the externalities related to global warming are not accounted for when the market determines the price of gas. Electricity will be more expensive either way and this really hasn’t sunk in yet. Were these costs accounted for, nuclear would be quite competitively priced, even with newer more moder…

> I hope we will, the problem currently is that this is not competitive compared to just burning natural gas.

[Citation required]

Grid-scale battery systems have fallen more than 70% since 2015.

> nuclear would be quite competitively priced

Nuclear is one of the most expensive and keeps getting more expensive; it's not competing against natural gas. It's competing against wind and solar, the two cheapest forms of generation. Solar is dropping ~10% per year...

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iron-air batteries are another potential low-cost option for long-duration storage (e.g. https://formenergy.com/technology/ )

Flow batteries look interesting, but they have moving parts. That is probably fine for large utilities who can staff people to maintain these batteries. It is probably not fine for a small solar and battery install house or village.

I don't think Form is making flow batteries.

Alternatively you can use liquid metal batteries, they can be placed anywhere and need nothing with very low chance of fire.

https://ambri.com/

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#76
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently the International Atomic Energy Agency spends ~10% of its budget on creating and sharing safety standards [0]. Unfortunately, its safety model flows through "and then allow nations to create their own standards." Ceding standards / regulation to an international-level organization for advanced reactors that meet some criteria (e.g. proliferation-resistant, under a certain power, fail-safe, minimal worst-ca…

What is the worst thing of all, the US, the one country who could actually maybe lead something like that maybe has the worst possible regulatory standard. The US literally hard coded PWR reactor standards into the regulatory framework. Doing anything else is essentially impossible outside a few niches. That is why a number of companies re-located to Canada. In the US you basically need to give them a design (100+ mi…

Regulation is thus far saving us from most badly ill-advised nuke projects. Some sneak through, costing ratepayers in more politically corrupt places many $billions for, in the end, scrap concrete.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iron-air batteries are another potential low-cost option for long-duration storage (e.g. https://formenergy.com/technology/ )

Flow batteries look interesting, but they have moving parts. That is probably fine for large utilities who can staff people to maintain these batteries. It is probably not fine for a small solar and battery install house or village.

if big batteries are cheap, you don't need small ones. the reason small batteries are common now is that they are price competitive. if new batteries are developed that are cheap, but need large sizes, the cost of moving the power around is negligible.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#78

Next generation nuclear or fusion would be amazing, but looking how things stand today, I would bet on cheap and reliable grid-storage batteries coming first. Pairing renewables with cheap batteries solves energy for 80% of the world. Things like sodium-ion batteries look like they are getting close production, and don't contain hard-to-acquire materials.

Iron-air batteries are another potential low-cost option for long-duration storage (e.g. https://formenergy.com/technology/ )

It will be interesting to see whether Form's iron-air batteries end up priced out of the market as storage cost continues plummeting with no bottom in sight. I have not seen round-trip efficiency figures for iron-air, so guess it must be low. (I welcome correction.)

Transportability of synthetic liquid storage media will make them attractive even where still more expensive than alternatives. Their cost will continue on down, too.

It surprises most people that low round-trip efficiency in a storage medium doesn't matter much anymore.

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#79
post #69
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why there's so much interest in nuclear when low-tech concentrated solar in the desert can get the job done and scaling it up (and ensuring it's 100% safe) isn't a matter of R&D but just basic manufacturing. Solar is dependent on the time of day (as the sister comments pointed out) and also on weather. Plus, you need to get the energy from the desert to wherever it's needed - this is non-trivial for densely populat…

Disinformation is not welcome here There is absolutely no need for deserts, or for single-use solar farms anywhere. Solar coexists with roofs, parking lots, reservoirs and canals, and pasture, improving each.

Please don't claim disinformation unless there's evidence of intentional deception, which doesn't appear to the case here. Instead, try to add to the discussion. For example, your claim raises the question of why many existing solar farms were built in deserts. Did something change since they were built?

Re: ThorCon: Cheap, reliable, CO2-free electric power

#80
post #34

The article quotes a very old capacity-factor for wind-energy (30%). Today it is 60-64%. https://www.ge.com/renewableenergy/wind-energy/offshore-wind... Also read this report regarding new types of nuclear power (a summary is that these new versions is probably a waste of money): https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/ucs-rpt-A...

In the US in 2020, decommissioned nuclear generating capacity was replaced by six times as much wind and solar capacity. That only accounts for grid-scale capacity, not commercial projects like rooftop systems on large warehouses, or residential systems.

That tells you all you need to know. The people who make money off selling electricity are buying wind and solar.

Attention is focused on grid infrastructure improvements like HVDC, and battery storage systems. Battery systems are even being deployed privately; for example, it's a lot easier to locate an EV DC fast charging station if it sucks down a continuous ~20kW to charge its own power reservoir, than if it needs 300-400kW to directly charge two EVs at full speed.

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