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Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

lcamtuf.coredump.cx

71–80 of 140 posts

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#71

Some decent guides from government: * https://www.ready.gov * https://www.getprepared.gc.ca/index-en.aspx To start: have an emergency fund for 3-6 months' worth of expenses, be able to cook/eat/drink/clean/toilet and heat your abode for 3 days in case the power goes out. Then prepare for 7d, 14, one month, etc: stop when you think you have "enough". Some will feel comfortable for more time and some less. One piece of…

Ot's funny how close you automatically get there if your favoured vacation style is camping. Even during those periods when you don't prepare for a trip.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#72
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how the Japanese do it. If you have noticed, they do a really good job of responding to disasters. In fact, one of the funniest aspects, is that the Yakuza (Japanese mobsters) often are the first ones on the scene, and seem to take pleasure at beating the government response. I suspect that part of the reason is that organized crime tends to have an incredibly robust infrastructure, hardened against unpredicta…

I don't think there is a clean distinction between a fuedal/fascist society, and one where organized crime, historically often tied to ultranationalist far right parties, leads the response in crises. That is what I'd expect in a fascist society, an active para-government organization tied to particular politicians and parties. (That being said, I don't really think the Yakuza even meets this romanticized vision that…

These were two different things.

In the kind of world that preppers dream of, they are the “rulers,” because they hoarded the goods, and have the weapons.

What would actually happen, if someone spent more than thirty seconds, thinking it through, is that a few badasses (probably organized crime), would take the stash and the weapons, and kill the preppers, if they even hinted at a fight. This is what already happens, in areas where the rule of law deteriorates.

In countries with strong social infrastructure, we are more likely to see people helping each other, as opposed to themselves.

BTW: Japan doesn't have much of a meth problem. You can buy damn good speed, OTC. I think that the Philippines have a pretty bad meth problem.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#73
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Any source? These figures seem absurdly high, and I say that as a former resident of NYC in the 90s. > Uses data from approximately the 1975-1985 period, so not about the 90s. Also, wasn't violent crime notoriously high during that period? For instance, my understanding was Times Square used to be gritty and a little dangerous, then Giuliani turned it into a Disneyland in the 90s.

I don't know how actively dangerous Times Square was but for it and 42nd Street "gritty" is a pretty good description. You see remnants of it at e.g. the Port Authority, aka one of the world's worst bus stations. Being there late at night was... interesting (as I once was). For a lot of people who knew NYC in that era, the "Disneyfication" isn't the worst thing that could have happened.

My dad commuted to his office somewhere in Midtown Manhattan in the 1980s. One day I was rummaging through his briefcase and found a steel baton. I asked him what it was for and he said it was to protect himself from the bad guys.

As a kid I distinctly remember being somewhat afraid whenever my family had reason to go into NYC from our home in NJ.

I know he's controversial, but that fear subsided at some point during Guiliani's term. Yes I know today he seems to have become a total crazy loon, but I highly respected him as mayor for making large swathes of NYC feel safer. And yes, I know some people loathe him even for his tenureship as mayor.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#74

Cash on hand, a gun with ammunition, canned food, and bottled water.

If you don't have to worry about hingry predators, large ones like bears or wolves, tigers and lions, I think an axe and a saw for fire and construction wood is a better alternative than a gun.

EDIT: Hunting, a gun can be used for hunting. If you know how to, if you don't it's still pretty useless.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#75

Cash on hand, a gun with ammunition, canned food, and bottled water.

> Cash on hand, a gun with ammunition, canned food, and bottled water. Contrary to popular opinion, people generally pull together in disasters rather than society falling apart. Good book on what happened in various situations ( 1917 explosion that tore up Halifax, Nova Scotia, the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, 9/11, and Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans) * http://rebeccasolnit.net/book/a-paradise-built-in-hell/ * htt…

Disasters, yes, not collapse.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#76

Cash on hand, a gun with ammunition, canned food, and bottled water.

> Cash on hand, a gun with ammunition, canned food, and bottled water. Contrary to popular opinion, people generally pull together in disasters rather than society falling apart. Good book on what happened in various situations ( 1917 explosion that tore up Halifax, Nova Scotia, the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, 9/11, and Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans) * http://rebeccasolnit.net/book/a-paradise-built-in-hell/ * htt…

Ever seen Threads (1984) though? Or for something less outright depressing, perhaps the first few episodes of James Burke's Connections?

Both make it clear that should something cataclysmic befall us all we'd be faced with the near-impossible problem of restarting agriculture. Modern, surplus-generating, agriculture isn't possible without modern society, starting with the basics like fuel and fertilizers (and everything else that's connected: the rule of law, supply chains, logistics, PhD-level domain knowledge and expertise, and so on). Those who survive "the event" would be forced into a life of sustenance farming for generations - and while you might think some semblance of modern civilization could be reestablished within a few years, consider that if everyone is sustenance farming for themselves, that leaves almost no-one left to do the actual reconstruction work, and that includes rebuilding fertilizer plants, fuel refineries, oil extraction, and agricultural machinery production.

Without anything close to today's industrialization and automation being restored within a few years (hint: very unlikely) it only gets worse: our modern society depends on an educated workforce. Under a "everyone sustenance farms for themselves"-scenario that means there's no-one to sufficiently educate the tens of millions of school and university-age people, assuming those kids aren't press-ganged into farming for their local district before they can even read or write, so with that outlook what hope is there to rebuild and operate oil refineries from scratch?

And "rebuild from scratch" is the word. While Russia might no-longer have enough strategic warheads to completely obliterate the northern hemisphere (at least for now), I'd bet a week's worth of my future postwar turnip ration that Russia has all of North America's oil refineries and related infrastructure marked as primary-targets, such is total war - so in the aftermath it definitely wouldn't be as simple as reconnecting some broken pipework and wiring-up a generator: the entire gulf-coast's set of oil refineries would be obliterated.

So, yes, you're not wrong: we will all band together, but I'll add that we'll band-together for a world of suck for 10-20 years before we mostly succumb to then-untreatable cancers, and our offspring will grow up as illiterate and uneducated serfs.

I must say, relocating to Chile or New Zealand is looking very attractive right now...

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#77
One aspect that the article does not cover enough is the importance of training. Whether that's medical training, self-defense training, survival training or general preparedness training, training is what makes gear/supplies useful. Far too many people will purchase x, y, and z in order to be "prepared", but if you can't properly apply that tourniquet you bought a dozen of, then it is useless, and so are you in the event of an emergency.

Circa 2006 or so, I decided to start spending my free/vacation time on training across a wide spectrum of skills. My motto: "Always become more deadly, or harder to kill." I've learned how to do a lot of things that I will very likely never have to do, but if I do, I hope that I am more prepared than I would be without the training. As with any training, the skills are generally perishable, so you have to work to maintain competency, but, personally, I'd rather spend my time learning important things than wasting it on the bread and circuses provided as "mass entertainment".

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#78
post #77

One aspect that the article does not cover enough is the importance of training. Whether that's medical training, self-defense training, survival training or general preparedness training, training is what makes gear/supplies useful. Far too many people will purchase x, y, and z in order to be "prepared", but if you can't properly apply that tourniquet you bought a dozen of, then it is useless, and so are you in the…

Why not training in stuff like gardening (the food stuff variety), repair, house building, emergency medical care? Even in pre-feudal societies there was only so much need for "warriors".

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#79
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What use is cash in the case of a true catastrophe? And I don’t see the benefit of having a gun with or without ammunition. I would never ever be willing to shoot another person (or even an animal), even to protect myself or mine. I’d rather we are raped, tortured, and killed than harm another person.

While I understand non-violent, sometimes violence is the worst of your bad choices. I have no plan on shooting another human, but I need to reserve that right because there are people who will shoot me (Russia if you are in Ukraine)

Unless you are an active combatant in a war, or civil war, that's usually not your problem.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#80

The book Eternity by Greg Bear had an interesting take on this. In that book (spoiler) there is an exchange of nuclear weapons between the U.S. and Russia, which devastates the surface of the Earth. But many people survive, and a society quickly develops post-war. But it is dominated not by those who were most individually prepared, but by those who contributed the most to their neighbors and communities. There is so…

Enjoyed this comment. Vibes with an essay by Cory Doctorow about needing a “bug in bag” not a “bug out bag”, to run towards community to help versus running to the mountains, as you need collective action to survive. https://boingboing.net/2015/12/21/a-survivalist-on-why-you-s... https://boingboing.net/2008/07/13/postapocalypse-witho.html

In and of itself, the "bug out bag" doesn't necessarily imply running off to the wilderness but the fact that you might have to abandon your residence due damage (fire, quake-related structural damage, advancing enemy force).

If you have a bug-in bag you ought to have a bug-out bag for the simple fact that "Shit Happens."

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