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Five Levels of Hype

johannesklingebiel.de

71–80 of 106 posts

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO the technology blockchain has only demonstrated success in 1 application which is cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency has only demonstrated success in 2 applications: speculative investment and illegal online purchases. I would include NFT’s under the speculative investment category. These applications are obviously problematic for 3 main reasons: it wastes enormous amounts of energy, the investment is often at the ex…

I disagree. I use crypto to protect against high inflation in my country and mantain the value of the fruits of my labour. Where does that fit in your categories? Crypto and DeFi have a lot of applications, especially in third world countries with bad financial systems.

In the absence of a stable government backed currency it seems cryptocurrency could have some value. However, cryptocurrency is also unstable. You are speculating that holding crypto will be better over some period of time than any alternative value store you can access. That may well be true, but seems like that depends on what other options you have access to and would require more rigorous analysis of the tradeoffs. For example, if you were to say “crypto is a better currency than eggs” [1], that seems likely, but eggs don’t require internet access and specialized knowledge of a particular technology.

[1] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/07/19/w...

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. I use crypto to protect against high inflation in my country and mantain the value of the fruits of my labour. Where does that fit in your categories? Crypto and DeFi have a lot of applications, especially in third world countries with bad financial systems.

> I use crypto to protect against high inflation in my country and mantain the value of the fruits of my labour. Where does that fit in your categories? This is obviously speculative investment. (Even if your local currency is so horrendous it lost more value than Bitcoin this month, less volatile ways of hedging exist. Maybe you bought lower or changed cryptoassets so you've gained far more than BTC fell, but that's…

Its not. I am using stablecoins to hold currencies I wouldn't be able to hold because of capital controls.

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. I use crypto to protect against high inflation in my country and mantain the value of the fruits of my labour. Where does that fit in your categories? Crypto and DeFi have a lot of applications, especially in third world countries with bad financial systems.

In the absence of a stable government backed currency it seems cryptocurrency could have some value. However, cryptocurrency is also unstable. You are speculating that holding crypto will be better over some period of time than any alternative value store you can access. That may well be true, but seems like that depends on what other options you have access to and would require more rigorous analysis of the tradeoff…

You are assuming I use BTC or ETH directly as currency but I use stablecoins like DAI which are pegged to the USD dollar.

This allows me to hold currencies I wouldn't be able to buy because of capital controls by the government.

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#74

Nicely observed. This has more to do with how people think than how the world works; which means that no step of the hype train here needs to be connected to reality in any way. The product doesn't have to even exist to benefit from hype; that's how religions and dancing plagues happen.

More on dancing plagues for the unfamiliar: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_plague_of_1518

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid coming from a lab is 'leaving science"? Well I'm glad whoever made that chart has it all figured out.

Yes, they need to update that list. Jamie Metzel [1] makes a very rational case that the Lab Leak theory is very likely. Check out is interview with Lex. It's more than 4 hours long (!), but worth a listen. [1] https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/

The creator of that graphic seems to have actually done so, at

https://twitter.com/abbieasr/status/1462953203067240450

"COVID-19 made in lab" has been revised to the narrower "COVID is a bioweapon". The remainder of the original broader claim ("COVID arose from reckless but not malicious virological research") appears nowhere on the new chart.

Of course the new chart then puts "Iran Contra" in the same category as "UFOs"; so infographics are perhaps not the best arbiters of truth in general.

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they need to update that list. Jamie Metzel [1] makes a very rational case that the Lab Leak theory is very likely. Check out is interview with Lex. It's more than 4 hours long (!), but worth a listen. [1] https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/

I think there are two theories that get conflated: 1) it was experimentation and leaked out of the lab accidentally and 2) it was weaponization and leaked out of the lab intentionally. I think sometimes one person says the former and another hears the latter and vice versa.

Also, conflation between "a coronavirus escaping lab which studied animal coronaviruses is a plausible origin for an outbreak in humans", which is a well-supported claim and "SARs-COV-2 can't be a natural virus", which isn't (even before all the extraneous group identity stuff is added on). Seems the designer of the graphic was focused on the latter argument when he said "made in lab".

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose this was supposed to sound like a snappy argument? It’s a bland, impactless statement. Even if scumbags are infatuated with something, it can still have legitimate and beneficial uses / users. And the comment’s wrong too… the scumbags probably want to cash their gains out to traditional currencies, they’re least likely to be in it as technology true believers.

I think what he was trying to say is that saying "crypto attracts scumbags" puts the onus purely on consumers of the tech, when in fact a lot of the scummy behavior, hype and fraud is planned and encouraged by the people implementing the technology, not only their users. That's a significant departure from "any other movement".

> That's a significant departure from "any other movement".

Exactly this. There are scumbags in every movement, but crypto has structural incentives for scumbaggery that make it distinct.

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO the technology blockchain has only demonstrated success in 1 application which is cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency has only demonstrated success in 2 applications: speculative investment and illegal online purchases. I would include NFT’s under the speculative investment category. These applications are obviously problematic for 3 main reasons: it wastes enormous amounts of energy, the investment is often at the ex…

I disagree. I use crypto to protect against high inflation in my country and mantain the value of the fruits of my labour. Where does that fit in your categories? Crypto and DeFi have a lot of applications, especially in third world countries with bad financial systems.

Your government has capital controls (mentioned in a different response) to prevent you from purchasing foreign currency.

Which makes buying crypto (or stablecoin) illegal online purchase.

Illegal doesn't always means wrong or immoral, depends on whether the laws are good or not.

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the absence of a stable government backed currency it seems cryptocurrency could have some value. However, cryptocurrency is also unstable. You are speculating that holding crypto will be better over some period of time than any alternative value store you can access. That may well be true, but seems like that depends on what other options you have access to and would require more rigorous analysis of the tradeoff…

You are assuming I use BTC or ETH directly as currency but I use stablecoins like DAI which are pegged to the USD dollar. This allows me to hold currencies I wouldn't be able to buy because of capital controls by the government.

“Where does that fit in your categories?”

It sounds like it falls mostly under illegal transactions because you are using crypto for something that would otherwise be illegal (avoiding capital controls). Is it technically illegal? I don’t know. Is it ethically wrong? I guess not directly. However, I imagine there are also a lot of nefarious reasons somebody might want to avoid capital controls which crypto could also help facilitate.

Re: Five Levels of Hype

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I use crypto to protect against high inflation in my country and mantain the value of the fruits of my labour. Where does that fit in your categories? This is obviously speculative investment. (Even if your local currency is so horrendous it lost more value than Bitcoin this month, less volatile ways of hedging exist. Maybe you bought lower or changed cryptoassets so you've gained far more than BTC fell, but that's…

Its not. I am using stablecoins to hold currencies I wouldn't be able to hold because of capital controls.

So what you're saying is that you buy ETH for its utility of processing transactions on tokenized assets? And you get more value out of spending the ETH on gas than it cost you to purchase it?

That sure sounds like a useful product to me.

I think HN is so anti-crypto because so few people in the industry currently have your use-case.

Personally, I think what you're doing is exciting and helps put a value on the utility of paying to run these contracts.

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