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It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

#71

Post by zepto »

ashwagary wrote: post #68
zepto wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It certainly fails the inflation test without any doubt today. You seem to be saying that it might pass it in the future.

Wrong, real inflation has been rising at an alarming rate for more than a decade, it didnt start in Q4 of 2021. If you choose to measure BTCs performance poorly (3-6 month windows), you are just feeding yourself a false conclusion since Bitcoin had a 5,000,000x return over the past decade.

You’ll need evidence for that, and a way to disambiguate Bitcoin’s performance as an inflation hedge from the speculative bubble.

> it did a 5,000,000x plus return in that time

Then it is self evidently not an inflation hedge.

Re: It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

#72

Post by [deleted] »

numtel wrote: post #54
epgui wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this a problem? More specifically: assuming we can't derive it by some clever means, or approximate it from some tax reporting data, isn't it a problem that we can't get such a distribution? I mean this not as a moral judgement, but more as a system dynamics concern. It's easy enough to see how wealth concentration can destabilize a money/value system absent other factors. So my concern isn't about what's right…

Just wait until you find out that there's not even a block explorer for monero.

[deleted]

Re: It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

#73

Post by ashwagary »

zepto wrote: post #71
ashwagary wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wrong, real inflation has been rising at an alarming rate for more than a decade, it didnt start in Q4 of 2021. If you choose to measure BTCs performance poorly (3-6 month windows), you are just feeding yourself a false conclusion since Bitcoin had a 5,000,000x return over the past decade.

You’ll need evidence for that, and a way to disambiguate Bitcoin’s performance as an inflation hedge from the speculative bubble. > it did a 5,000,000x plus return in that time Then it is self evidently not an inflation hedge.

BTC's monetary policy makes it an inflation hedge regardless of what humans are doing with it, the cycles just take 4 years to play out. The evidence is literally in the code.

No need to complicate things, just focus on 2 key questions...

1. Is the BTC supply inflation rate lower than the US dollar’s (and other fiat currencies)?

2. Will it be lower for the forseeable future?

That will give you the simple answer you are looking for...both answers are 'yes' btw.

Re: It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

#75

Post by zepto »

ashwagary wrote: post #73
zepto wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’ll need evidence for that, and a way to disambiguate Bitcoin’s performance as an inflation hedge from the speculative bubble. > it did a 5,000,000x plus return in that time Then it is self evidently not an inflation hedge.

BTC's monetary policy makes it an inflation hedge regardless of what humans are doing with it, the cycles just take 4 years to play out. The evidence is literally in the code. No need to complicate things, just focus on 2 key questions... 1. Is the BTC supply inflation rate lower than the US dollar’s (and other fiat currencies)? 2. Will it be lower for the forseeable future? That will give you the simple answer you a…

Price and supply are independent. Bitcoin isn’t a currency. It’s a speculative asset. It doesn’t matter whether it is inflationary within its own realm, so these factors tell us nothing at all.

What matters is whether the speculative asset acts like an inflation hedge.

Spoiler: it does not. It acts like a speculative bubble.

Re: It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

#76

Post by ashwagary »

zepto wrote: post #75
ashwagary wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BTC's monetary policy makes it an inflation hedge regardless of what humans are doing with it, the cycles just take 4 years to play out. The evidence is literally in the code. No need to complicate things, just focus on 2 key questions... 1. Is the BTC supply inflation rate lower than the US dollar’s (and other fiat currencies)? 2. Will it be lower for the forseeable future? That will give you the simple answer you a…

Price and supply are independent. Bitcoin isn’t a currency. It’s a speculative asset. It doesn’t matter whether it is inflationary within its own realm, so these factors tell us nothing at all. What matters is whether the speculative asset acts like an inflation hedge. Spoiler: it does not. It acts like a speculative bubble.

Wrong. Monetary policy is the key here. Price discovery, volatility, reflexivity, add noise to the procession/price-chart but over any 4 year period the fundamentals matter. One would have to be insanse to claim btc doesnt act like an inflation hedge, it literally averages approx 200% return every year, over any 4 year period.

Gold is called an inflation hedge by many confused people, compare its performance to btc over the last 10 years and tell me which performs better in the face of fiat inflation.

>Price and supply are independent

Wrong. Price is literally discovered by supply vs demand.

Say 5 billionaires want to buy coin-x and the max circulating supply is 1 coin... When the bidding war starts, are price and supply independent?

I dont think you understand the topic we are discussing here, so I will move on.

Re: It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

#77

Post by acdha »

howdydoo wrote: post #51
acdha wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Crypto isn't intented to remove middlemen That isn’t what the sales pitch has been for the last 13 years, with lots of fanciful rhetoric about removing the need for banks (“you can be your own bank!” is basically a cliché by now). > If I choose to self-custody, it's much safer to memorize a seed phrase than to store cash in my mattress. Are you sure about this? Lots of people have been phished or compromised, where…

People give sales pitches for lots of things. You don't have to listen to them. > Are you sure about this? Whether I'm sure or not... I think everyone should be given the choice.

> People give sales pitches for lots of things. You don't have to listen to them.

No, but when something has completely failed to live up to the sales pitch and then people try to pretend they'd never made those claims, it's important to remember that track record when deciding whether to trust the new claims. This is especially true in the case of cryptocurrencies which have no value other than social consensus because the same people who were making those original claims stand to gain the most if the new claims convince someone else to buy otherwise worthless tokens.

> Whether I'm sure or not... I think everyone should be given the choice.

Which they have and nobody is saying should be taken away from them. This is about the conflict between the stated goals and actual demonstrated behaviour.

Re: It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

#78

Post by zepto »

ashwagary wrote: post #76
zepto wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Price and supply are independent. Bitcoin isn’t a currency. It’s a speculative asset. It doesn’t matter whether it is inflationary within its own realm, so these factors tell us nothing at all. What matters is whether the speculative asset acts like an inflation hedge. Spoiler: it does not. It acts like a speculative bubble.

Wrong. Monetary policy is the key here. Price discovery, volatility, reflexivity, add noise to the procession/price-chart but over any 4 year period the fundamentals matter. One would have to be insanse to claim btc doesnt act like an inflation hedge, it literally averages approx 200% return every year, over any 4 year period. Gold is called an inflation hedge by many confused people, compare its performance to btc o…

Your argument seems to be that Bitcoin’s price has gone up a lot over the last decade, therefore it must be a hedge.

What you are not seeing is that over that time, every one of the promises made about Bitcoin’s utility has been systematically disproven, which is why it has now stalled.

Past performance is no predictor of future gains, as they say.

Re: It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

#79

Post by baby »

headmelted wrote: post #50
baby wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jul 16 2021, bitcoin was 30k, today it’s 40k, how is this a deflating bubble?

Because you just picked a randomly favourable date from an escalating speculative asset?

So did you?

Re: It's time for an inequality index for cryptocurrencies distribution

#80

Post by imtringued »

atmosx wrote: post #13

> This concentration not only risks to threaten blockchain's own premises [...] BTC was designed specifically to avoid any kind of _state control_ and by _state control_ I mean something along the lines of a central bank. Adding protections here and there will inevitably lead to a system that is similar to current financial system with all the bells and whistles. I think you're missing the point: BTC tries to sell la…

Yeah and in that sense it is basically the same as gold. Gold is a tool to entrench power. Bitcoin is a tool to entrench power. Conventional fiat currency is also a tool designed to entrench power. All of these so called "scarce" currencies achieved exactly what they were designed for.

The ideal that Bitcoin lets you escape the current financial dogmas is completely wrong, it's a parody of the existing system.

Something like Freicoin would be more appropriate as an alternative, e.g. an "abundant" currency that always makes itself available to anyone who wants to trade.

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