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America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

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Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#71

Post by wbsss4412 »

vidanay wrote: post #70
wbsss4412 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you pose is the implication of that?

Yeah, I don't really get that either. If push comes to shove and we (the US) devalue our currency, then all the other foreign debt holders are left holding the bag while we just suffer through a couple years of recession.

Usually beneath the veneer of such questions it seems to be some sort of libertarian/crypto fan/anti fiat currency ideologue. Rarely based on sober analysis.

I think it would represent a fairly strong change in global power structures, but like you I don’t think the sky would fall.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#73

Post by BitwiseFool »

wbsss4412 wrote: post #65
BitwiseFool wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the key unmentioned weakness of the United States is our economic system and monetary policy. Especially because of our ever increasing debt and deficit spending.

What do you pose is the implication of that?

This is a terrific, albeit deep dive into the topic. https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/

Broadly speaking, the US has to run trade deficits in order for the rest of the world to have the dollars they must use to buy oil. This severely handicaps our ability to manufacture and produce things domestically. During the past century the US Government took on lots of debt with the understanding that our economy would naturally grow to cover the obligations. But given this international monetary system, I struggle to see how the US can manage to grow it's way out of all the debt we've made for ourselves. I would like to go on, but Lyn is a far better writer than I.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#74

Post by BitwiseFool »

wbsss4412 wrote: post #71
vidanay wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I don't really get that either. If push comes to shove and we (the US) devalue our currency, then all the other foreign debt holders are left holding the bag while we just suffer through a couple years of recession.

Usually beneath the veneer of such questions it seems to be some sort of libertarian/crypto fan/anti fiat currency ideologue. Rarely based on sober analysis. I think it would represent a fairly strong change in global power structures, but like you I don’t think the sky would fall.

I'm the GP and I responded to another comment that my views are influenced by the in-depth articles written by Lyn Alden: https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/

It's quite a long read, but I can tell you it doesn't come from a libertarian perspective. It does touch on Bitcoin, but near the end in one of a few theoretical "where things could go" perspective.

>"I think it would represent a fairly strong change in global power structures, but like you I don’t think the sky would fall."

Agreed, it would be shocking but life would go on. We would just have to live with a new international monetary paradigm.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#75

Post by wbsss4412 »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #73
wbsss4412 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you pose is the implication of that?

This is a terrific, albeit deep dive into the topic. https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/ Broadly speaking, the US has to run trade deficits in order for the rest of the world to have the dollars they must use to buy oil. This severely handicaps our ability to manufacture and produce things domestically. During the past century the US Government took on lots of debt with the understanding that our eco…

Alden’s analysis is certainly thought provoking, but it doesn’t made broad statements about the impact on US global power, which is the topic at hand here.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#76

Post by starwind »

coldtea wrote: post #50
fallingknife wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that the US is now a net oil exporter, an oil shock scenario is pretty much off the table. Moving to EVs is going to take so much oil demand off the table that it's pretty much a non issue going forward too.

> Moving to EVs is going to take so much oil demand off the table that it's pretty much a non issue going forward too. And yet the gas price is higher it's been since 2014 or so. And "moving to EVs", with 280 million conventional cars in the USA atm, ain't gonna happen in any large degree for the next 10-15 years. EVs (including hybrids) are less than 4% of current annual sales, and all-electric are half that. That's…

Gas, like all commodities, create their own business cycles. You don't want to compare spot prices, you want to compare trends. As a counterpoint, I could say "2 years ago, gas was cheaper than it had been since 2006"

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#77

Post by madengr »

dbingham wrote: post #35
COGlory wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If the other party wins, it's not democracy."

In this case, the Republican party is objectively authoritarian - and arguably neofascist. For all of the faults of the Democrats (and there are many) they are not actively hammering on the foundations of Democracy. Their leader did not just attempt to overthrow an election. They aren't actively undermining the ability to vote, or trying to put corrupt officials in place who will overthrow elections that don't go the…

[dead]

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#78

Post by starwind »

notacoward wrote: post #62
starwind wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and yet, those developments seem to have had little effect on the geopolitical situation I beg to differ. Two years ago the Saudis and the Russians got in a bad spat where the Russians decided they wanted to bankrupt US natural gas producers and the Saudis decided to bankrupt the Russians

How has that affected the US's trajectory which is the subject of the article?

A good portion of this article dealt with energy security. The US producing a ton of oil dramatically changed energy security. And I was specifically responding to the claim that US oil production has not had a geopolitical impact. It demonstrably has

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#79

Post by bjtitus »

parkingrift wrote: post #34

>After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2020, as long expected, the U.S. dollar finally loses its special status as the world's reserve currency. Suddenly, the cost of imports soars. Unable to pay for swelling deficits by selling now-devalued Treasury notes abroad, Washington is finally forced to slash its bloated military budget. It's funny and interesting that the military bu…

In 2019 the defense budget would have been #3 on your list, under only Social Security and Medicare + Medicaid. Perhaps using a pandemic year with extra outlays to avoid economic collapse is not the best way to discuss overall government spending.

In typical years the Defense spending is equal to each of the discretionary non-defense spending and "other" mandatory spending which excludes Medicare + Medicaid and Social Security. Medicare + Medicaid and Social Security spending have certainly increased the most and that seems to be inline with the increased spending on health care over the last few decades.

It's also worth noting that the non-defense categories still include defense related spending like veterans' income security, benefits, and services.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#80

Post by wbsss4412 »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #74
wbsss4412 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Usually beneath the veneer of such questions it seems to be some sort of libertarian/crypto fan/anti fiat currency ideologue. Rarely based on sober analysis. I think it would represent a fairly strong change in global power structures, but like you I don’t think the sky would fall.

I'm the GP and I responded to another comment that my views are influenced by the in-depth articles written by Lyn Alden: https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/ It's quite a long read, but I can tell you it doesn't come from a libertarian perspective. It does touch on Bitcoin, but near the end in one of a few theoretical "where things could go" perspective. >"I think it would represent a fairly strong c…

I’ve read Alden’s analysis before. I can’t say that I have found any particular weaknesses with it.

But as she says, such a change could take place in different ways, with different implications. If it were to happen suddenly it would be a shock, but that isn’t necessarily the case.

Most signs point to a multipolar world order isn’t he future, and outside a complete internal political collapse, the US would in all likelihood be one of those poles.

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