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Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

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Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#71

Post by jrtc27 »

gnicholas wrote: post #57
Pyramus wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it does seem to look the same for Covid, see e.g. here [1]. Note that this paper is likely before Delta, and the age bracket 0-4 does not match yours. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2

Thanks for the link. I guess it does look roughly like the trends for the flu, though honestly neither one looks like a saddle to me. A saddle is much more symmetrical, and these look more like linear functions with a small blip on the far left side. I'd still be interested to know if the 0-4 age group has homogeneous risk, or if the real risk is among 0-6 (or 12) month old babies. I have a 2 year old and we have bee…

The graph is deceptive; it's a semi-log plot, so the linearity is really exponential.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#72

Post by bobthechef »

LatteLazy wrote: post #39

People really seem to struggle with multiple facts. It is a fact otherwise healthy kids hardly ever have serious COVID infection consequences. It is a fact they give infections to others who don't do as well. It is a fact many kids aren't otherwise healthy and have a much higher rate of death and complications. It is a fact that even a very small rate of deaths or complications is a lot of dead kids when you're a big…

No post body was provided.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#73

Post by wwtrv »

newbamboo wrote: post #68
petmon wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be clear the 0.89% figure was obtained by dividing hospitalizations by population, so it includes many unvaccinated people who have not caught COVID (yet). The chance that an unvaccinated person who is COVID-positive will require hospitalization is around 3%.

What’s the risk for non-obese people? Not that obese people should be considered less healthy, just curious because much of America, outside of San Francisco, is obese.

But they are obviously less healthy?

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#74

Post by bhk »

gnicholas wrote: post #41
russdill wrote: post #12

Keep in mind of course that a chart of the risk of serious illness from the flu by age range looks like a saddle. The risk for those 5-49 is pretty low. But the risk for those 0-4 and 50-64 are both much higher.

Does the saddle look the same for COVID? Newborns are certainly uniquely susceptible to any illness, but I've not seen evidence that toddlers (2-4) are at especially high risk. Does anyone have data on how serious illness affects kids at these ages?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nati...

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#75

Post by socceroos »

xboxnolifes wrote: post #69
kerabatsos wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is hardly ever mentioned. The fact that children easily spread it back to parents, etc. was (and still is) conveniently left out of the discussion - even prior to access to vaccinations it was simply ignored. It’s one of the reasons we kept our children home from school, the first year of the pandemic. There were even “experts” arguing that children just didn’t spread the virus at all - which turned out to be lu…

> The fact that children easily spread it back to parents, etc. was (and still is) conveniently left out of the discussion Left out of the discussion? This is basically the entire discussion when vaccinating school children is ever brought up. It's the only defensible position to take.

Why is it a defensible position when vaccinated youth spread COVID at significantly the same rate as unvaccinated youth?

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#76

Post by jokethrowaway »

dv_dt wrote: post #9
stakkur wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"But the risk for children getting sick at school and bringing it back to their parents very much not does not play out like the flu." I don't think this is true, and I'd be interested to see data that backs up that claim. On that topic, here's a thoughtful article that dives into claims like that: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/07/the-kids-were-safe-f... My wife has been a public school teacher for 21 years,…

There have been studies that confirmed it with the older Covid strains which were less transferable than even delta, let alone Omicron. With increased transfer rates it becomes an even more viable vector. The article you quote says this “ Once you get to a certain point of community infection rates, it does look like being in-person … is associated with COVID spread in the community,” said Katharine Strunk, an author…

The new variants are more contagious but less deadly, so the situation is probably better now.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#77

Post by jokethrowaway »

newbamboo wrote: post #68
petmon wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be clear the 0.89% figure was obtained by dividing hospitalizations by population, so it includes many unvaccinated people who have not caught COVID (yet). The chance that an unvaccinated person who is COVID-positive will require hospitalization is around 3%.

What’s the risk for non-obese people? Not that obese people should be considered less healthy, just curious because much of America, outside of San Francisco, is obese.

Obese people are less healthy, that's a fact.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#78

Post by lostmsu »

bhk wrote: post #74
gnicholas wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does the saddle look the same for COVID? Newborns are certainly uniquely susceptible to any illness, but I've not seen evidence that toddlers (2-4) are at especially high risk. Does anyone have data on how serious illness affects kids at these ages?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nati...

Is there a similar link for hospitalizations? The healthcare one does not group by age.

Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu

#80

Post by xboxnolifes »

socceroos wrote: post #75
xboxnolifes wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The fact that children easily spread it back to parents, etc. was (and still is) conveniently left out of the discussion Left out of the discussion? This is basically the entire discussion when vaccinating school children is ever brought up. It's the only defensible position to take.

Why is it a defensible position when vaccinated youth spread COVID at significantly the same rate as unvaccinated youth?

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant it is the only defensible position to take if you are trying to instate vaccine mandate for school children. Considering children's risk for covid, having the primary worry be their own health is pretty hard to defend.
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