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An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

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Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#71
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Norway has a 1.4 trillion dollars in oil wealth. In Australia individuals save for their own retirement. Comparing these two retirement funding mechanisms on the basis of how much individuals benefit and transaction cost per AUM isn't sensible. Obviously being given free oil money is better than needing to save.

I don't understand your point at all. Both are very similar pools of assets. Why is it inappropriate to compare management costs and distributional outcomes between the two?

> I don't understand your point at all. Both are very similar pools of assets.

OK, let me explain it. Yes, the assets owned by both funds are financial assets that are comparable. They both own bonds and corporate shares, etc. But the issue is not what assets are in the funds.

When you are given lots of money, this reduces poverty much more than when an individual gets a tax break on saving their own money. Norway has trillions in oil reserves to support a small population. I am not sure why I need to explain this, but having a trillion dollar windfall reduces poverty much more effectively than subsidizing the savings of each individual.

Moreover, when you save each pay period you have to make lots of small little asset purchases, as opposed to making huge purchases in a SWF fund in which the money comes from selling oil, so transaction costs are higher in a 401K style system than when you are sitting on an ocean of free oil.

Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#72
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand your point at all. Both are very similar pools of assets. Why is it inappropriate to compare management costs and distributional outcomes between the two?

> I don't understand your point at all. Both are very similar pools of assets. OK, let me explain it. Yes, the assets owned by both funds are financial assets that are comparable. They both own bonds and corporate shares, etc. But the issue is not what assets are in the funds. When you are given lots of money, this reduces poverty much more than when an individual gets a tax break on saving their own money. Norway ha…

> When you are given lots of money, this reduces poverty much more than when an individual gets a tax break on saving their own money.

That is what I am saying - If the $3 trillion in super were shared equally, poverty would be a lot lower. Keating himself says that he could have set the system up this way, but didn't because he wanted it to be a privatized system of individual ownership.

> Norway has trillions in oil reserves to support a small population.

Norway has $1 trillion in retirement savings to support a small population. Australia has $3 trillion in retirement savings to support a small population. What's the difference? Why does what asset class the money originally came from matter?

> I am not sure why I need to explain this, but having a trillion dollar windfall reduces poverty much more effectively than subsidizing the savings of each individual.

Once again, both countries have trillions in assets, that can be distributed in many possible ways. You can either distribute them equally and reduce inequality (Norway), or individually and make it worse (Australia).

> Moreover, when you save each pay period you have to make lots of small little asset purchases, as opposed to making huge purchases in a SWF fund in which the money comes from selling oil, so transaction costs are higher in a 401K style system than when you are sitting on an ocean of free oil.

That is not how super funds work (they don't make small asset purchases each time you make a deposit, they run a combined asset pool and just keep track of your allocation) and not why super fees are high. They are high because there are so many small funds which spend money advertising against each other and duplicating admin costs, instead of simply having one big fund like Norway does.

Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#73
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand your point at all. Both are very similar pools of assets. OK, let me explain it. Yes, the assets owned by both funds are financial assets that are comparable. They both own bonds and corporate shares, etc. But the issue is not what assets are in the funds. When you are given lots of money, this reduces poverty much more than when an individual gets a tax break on saving their own money. Norway ha…

> When you are given lots of money, this reduces poverty much more than when an individual gets a tax break on saving their own money. That is what I am saying - If the $3 trillion in super were shared equally, poverty would be a lot lower. Keating himself says that he could have set the system up this way, but didn't because he wanted it to be a privatized system of individual ownership. > Norway has trillions in oi…

> That is what I am saying - If the $3 trillion in super were shared equally,

Uhh, this is private property, the result of individual households setting aside a portion of their own wages to save for the future. It is not politically feasible for the government to seize private savings it had said were previously for your retirement.

What you want is a defined benefit federal savings program (like social security), but that needs to be funded by taxing incomes, not by seizing existing private retirement savings. Some nations have that and others don't, but it's not a sovereign wealth fund. Please don't confuse the two issues being discussed.

The first issue is whether the government should tax the economy and pay out fixed retirement benefits for everyone, or whether it should promote individuals saving for their own retirement, or some hybrid of the two. This decision has nothing to do with SWFs. Australia has a hybrid system, where households are expected to save for retirement but there are also welfare programs for low income people. Most nations follow this model because it is what the public supports politically and it makes a lot of economic sense.

SWFs, OTOH, are created when a nation gets some unexpected windfall that is short lived, and it wants to smooth the life of that windfall into the future. That is why you invest. Otherwise when the oil runs out, Norway will face a shock. This way, by transforming the oil into investments, Norway can provide a stream of benefits that lasts longer than the oil. That question of transforming benefits across time for the government has nothing to do with whether the government provides defined benefit retirement plans or not for households. This is because even though every household has to plan for retirement when it earns no income, governments do not need to plan for a future when they earn no tax revenue. It is only when you get these predictable revenue bumps, such as discovering you are sitting on a pot of oil, that create a need for the government to smooth revenue across time.

Now Australia does have mineral resources and it even taxes the extraction of those resources just as Norway taxes the extraction of oil. But in Australia, the extraction of coal and iron results in a much smaller surplus spread over a much larger population, and so Australia's mineral wealth, while large in absolute terms, does not support the same level of surplus income per person as Norway's oil wealth - which is not to say that Australia's economy is less dependent on extraction than Norway's. Australia is very much dependent on all the jobs that mining creates, but that is not surplus income, it is income that has to be earned with labor. Therefore when Australia's coal and iron run out, it will be a big shock, but there is nothing Australia can do to smooth that income out, since it's not surplus income. This is why Australia does not put the fees obtained from mining into a SWF - they wont help!

Therefore Australia uses the proceeds from taxing mineral extraction for general revenue, it does not put the money into a special SWF pot, whereas Norway does. Just as Canada doesn't put the money it obtains from selling trees or rocks into a special pot. That decision to not stretch the revenue across time has nothing to do with whether the government has a defined benefit retirement system for households.

Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#74
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When you are given lots of money, this reduces poverty much more than when an individual gets a tax break on saving their own money. That is what I am saying - If the $3 trillion in super were shared equally, poverty would be a lot lower. Keating himself says that he could have set the system up this way, but didn't because he wanted it to be a privatized system of individual ownership. > Norway has trillions in oi…

> That is what I am saying - If the $3 trillion in super were shared equally, Uhh, this is private property, the result of individual households setting aside a portion of their own wages to save for the future. It is not politically feasible for the government to seize private savings it had said were previously for your retirement. What you want is a defined benefit federal savings program (like social security), b…

> Uhh, this is private property, the result of individual households setting aside a portion of their own wages to save for the future.

Yes - and that was a terrible decision. Australia could have put super contributions into a collective pool, and used the money to increase equality and fund above-poverty-line universal pensions, but it didn't. Instead they put it in individually owned accounts - inequality and poverty is much higher in Australia as a consequence. Elderly women are the most impoverished demographic in the country.

> What you want is a defined benefit federal savings program (like social security), but that needs to be funded by taxing incomes, not by seizing existing private retirement savings.

No, what you want is a collective fund like Norway's - you are talking like this doesn't exist. It would be very straightforward to tax super balances (particularly large ones) and move money into a collective pool.

> Some nations have that and others don't, but it's not a sovereign wealth fund. Please don't confuse the two issues being discussed.

Norway's SWF is literally a pension fund, and explicitly has the goal of creating equally shared wealth.

> SWFs, OTOH, are created when a nation gets some unexpected windfall that is short lived, and it wants to smooth the life of that windfall into the future.

No, that is one reason SWFs are created, but there are many - Australia's own SWF for instance was not created for this reason.

> But in Australia, the extraction of coal and iron results in a much smaller surplus spread over a much larger population, and so Australia's mineral wealth, while large in absolute terms, does not support the same level of surplus income per person as Norway's oil wealth

If we lack the surplus income of Norway, how have we managed to create a pool of wealth 3x as big from surplus incomes, in spite of wasting much more of it on fees each year?

> Australia is very much dependent on all the jobs that mining creates, but that is not surplus income, it is income that has to be earned with labor.

This is incoherent - both oil and mining resources require labor to extract. There's nothing special about oil or resources compared to any other type of capital - you can make a fund out of any type of capital.

Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#75
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now scotland has independent tax raising powers, the border with england for sea resources was carefully restruck to favour england The maritime border used to be a straight east-west line despite the east coast of England being curved. In 1999 it was changed so that it followed established international maritime border conventions regarding distances from the mainland[0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish…

You believe the change was motivated purely by geographical norms? It was legal on geographical grounds but was obviously motivated on assets and revenue.

I don't believe anything without evidence. It seems like a reasonable piece of tidying up that settles the legal juristiction of vessels in those waters but I look forward to seeing the evidence that it was a spiteful landgrab (watergrab?) so I can adjust my beliefs.

On balance, the maritime border appears to me to have been restruck to be fair.

Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#76
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You believe the change was motivated purely by geographical norms? It was legal on geographical grounds but was obviously motivated on assets and revenue.

I don't believe anything without evidence. It seems like a reasonable piece of tidying up that settles the legal juristiction of vessels in those waters but I look forward to seeing the evidence that it was a spiteful landgrab (watergrab?) so I can adjust my beliefs. On balance, the maritime border appears to me to have been restruck to be fair.

Here's a BBC piece from 2013: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-20042...

Here's a 2001 legal review from glasgow Caledonia university which obviously favours Scottish interests: https://academic.oup.com/ejil/article/12/1/77/359040?login=t...

Here's closing remarks from the SNP on a parliamentary debate, that shows the predominant driving factor was fisheries, and (if you read the rest of the debate) suggests a lot of confusion about what was being discussed and why): https://www.theyworkforyou.com/sp/?id=2000-04-26.9.0#g58.1

Here's two extremely partisan takes by a pro Indy scot who claims to have previously negotiated sea boundary changes. What's interesting is the "northward drift" : https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/01/scotlands-st...

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2012/01/scotlandengl...

Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#77
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't believe anything without evidence. It seems like a reasonable piece of tidying up that settles the legal juristiction of vessels in those waters but I look forward to seeing the evidence that it was a spiteful landgrab (watergrab?) so I can adjust my beliefs. On balance, the maritime border appears to me to have been restruck to be fair.

Here's a BBC piece from 2013: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-20042... Here's a 2001 legal review from glasgow Caledonia university which obviously favours Scottish interests: https://academic.oup.com/ejil/article/12/1/77/359040?login=t... Here's closing remarks from the SNP on a parliamentary debate, that shows the predominant driving factor was fisheries, and (if you read the rest of the deba…

Thank you for taking the time to do that and I know we are drifting massively off-topic. The blogs posts fail the PROMPT test for me but the Zahraa, 2001 paper is much more interesting and makes a decent case that this isn't a settled issue and it probably should be sooner rather than later.

Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People don't seem to understand the concept of constitutional monarchy, and mistakenly believe that the King or Queen in such setups wield power. They are just titular heads of states in a democratic state where the elected representatives and the government hold the real power. However, I'd say the United Kingdom is an exception here as the Queen still has a lot of power, legally, many of which they have never exerc…

Some of that is correct, the Queen has soverign immunity (a bit wider in scope than, say, the immunity afforded US presidents), and her household has excemption from some laws. Some of the power you are referring to is the Royal Perogative in which the monarch is important constitutionally but not practically because the use of the Perogative is reserved for the Prime Minister. Some of the things you mention, such as…

I didn't know about the crown / state context, and that makes more sense than the Queen herself owning the Swans and Dolphins. :)

But no, I am not confused about the symbolic roles vs what is written in law.

I am an indian and our current Parliamentary system is a British legacy. We understood the need of a titular role like the Queen in our system, and thus created the position of the President for it. So in India, everything happens in the name of the President of India. E.g. A law becomes a law only if the President signs it. However, our constitution clearly defines the role and the post has no real power over the Executive, Parliament or the Judiciary.

Personally, my perception of the British monarchy has been that the laws assigning the power to the monarchy, as it was then written gives them a lot of power. But it is only in the last 3 - 4 decades that they are being interpreted more "democratically" in modern parliamentary traditions (a reflection of the changing times). And thus it is being taken to mean that all her powers can only be exercised "under the advise of the cabinet", even if some of the laws don't explicitly state that. (As you rightly pointed out, the lack of a written constitution is a very interesting feature of the British system, as it allows for a more "flexible" interpretation of the law by the courts).

Interestingly, unlike in the indian system, a Queen can actually refuse to sign a bill into law. (In India, it is clearly spelled out that the President can refuse to sign a bill into law and send it back to the parliament with his objections. But if it is sent back again, the President has no choice but to sign and make it a law). So in theory, the Queen can over rule any law abolishing the monarchy or its role in the British system! There's also enough leeway, in theory, in the laws for the Queen to assume full power anytime in the future as the Queen can dismiss an elected government and elections can only be held when the Queen calls for it.

> The power to go to war used to be a Royal Perogative (the PM could declare war) but even this is now lost after adventures in Iraq and requires assent by parliament.

If I remember right, didn't the Queen refuse to give her assent to table this bill to the Parliament? (One of the rare times she exercised this power).

    In one instance the Queen completely vetoed the Military Actions Against Iraq Bill in 1999, a private member's bill that sought to transfer the power to authorise military strikes against Iraq from the monarch to parliament. 
Secret papers show extent of senior royals' veto over bills - https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/14/secret-papers-roy...

Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#79
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is what I am saying - If the $3 trillion in super were shared equally, Uhh, this is private property, the result of individual households setting aside a portion of their own wages to save for the future. It is not politically feasible for the government to seize private savings it had said were previously for your retirement. What you want is a defined benefit federal savings program (like social security), b…

> Uhh, this is private property, the result of individual households setting aside a portion of their own wages to save for the future. Yes - and that was a terrible decision. Australia could have put super contributions into a collective pool, and used the money to increase equality and fund above-poverty-line universal pensions, but it didn't. Instead they put it in individually owned accounts - inequality and pove…

> This is incoherent - both oil and mining resources require labor to extract.

Again, what is special about oil is that profits from extracting oil are very large, but the profits from mining coal are quite small. Therefore a nation sitting on a pile of coal has a great jobs program for employing coal miners, but not a lot of surplus industry income that can be taxed to give everyone in the country an extra 200K. A nation sitting on a vast pool of oil can do that.

> If we lack the surplus income of Norway, how have we managed to create a pool of wealth 3x as big from surplus incomes, in spite of wasting much more of it on fees each year?

Australia's large retirement funds are the result of a larger population saving for retirement. They are not obtained by taxing excess profits of the iron/coal industry, but by individual households cutting their spending and saving for retirement.

> Norway's SWF is literally a pension fund, and explicitly has the goal of creating equally shared wealth.

This is a non-sequitur. I am saying that we shouldn't confuse the policy goal of fixed versus individual savings programs with whether or not SWFs are used - as one is a retirement policy and the other is funding mechanism. A nation may want a defined pension but shouldn't have an SWF, or vice versa, or neither. The fact that you keep mixing them is not some rebuttal. It's like when I point out you shouldn't confuse colors with gender of animals, and you say "False, this is a blue, male bird!" At this point I have to disengage.

Re: An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

#80
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big difference is that Norway is a sovereign state and didn't have to deal with federal and inter-provincial politics like Alberta did. I have my doubts about whether or not a federal government that has done something like the National Energy Program would allow a province within their country to hold a sovereign wealth fund worth hundreds of billions, or even over a trillion dollars.

> A big difference is that Norway is a sovereign state and didn't have to deal with federal and inter-provincial politics like Alberta did. As I understand it the Alberta Fund is completely controlled by the province. There is some national policies, especially with exports, that falls under the Feds, but how much (or little) flows into the Fund is completely up to the province. It is on Alberta itself that it decide…

I am not saying that there is blame or not, it isn't so much blame as recognizing that there are different circumstances between Alberta and Norway that influenced the direction they went.

The big example is the National Energy Program which (aside from its economic impact on the province) basically tainted politics in Alberta and probably contributed to their hesitancy to contribute to a fund which could potentially be raided by the Federal government in the future.

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