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For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

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Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#71

Post by LightG »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #62
LightG wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there's a choice involved. Reduce baseline accidents, but increase being exposed to completely random events that will kill you. Nope. I won't be part of that statistic.

I wonder how many people say this whose personal driving habits make them much higher risk than the baseline.

Regardless.

Nothing short of 100% reliability will convince me that handing over control to a closed-box AI is better.

And even then, one small "bug" could change that conclusion. It just takes one weird, anomoly in the real world to mess things up. And maybe handling those things will eventually be perfected*. Maybe. But I don't intend to be the beta tester for that.

*I know the default is to hand control back to the driver, but then you may as well be driving (which I enjoy). "Shut up and drive" is far more fun than being your cars KPI manager.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#72

Post by texasbigdata »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #59
gameswithgo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has already been happening but self driving enthusiasts just keep thinking it is great. And regulators have done very little and otherwise smart people like Sandy Munro get extremely mad at what little regulators have hinted at. It is wild times.

Munro sat down with Musk and enthusiastically praised FSD but complained about how roads were often improperly painted. Musk--to his credit--said the car needed to work safely even in the presence of paint errors. (Video is on Munro's YT channel.) Munro is very critical of many aspects of car design; I cannot understand why he's such a fan of FSD. I tried FSD on the $200/month plan and dropped it: It makes the car un…

Had the opposite experience on a testdrive purposely (within reason) trying to see if it would merge into a lane that subsequently had a merging onramp with a car resulting in the blindspot likely needing to move in.

Was super impressed it seemed to over correct and be thoughtful about consequences a few seconds down the road.

Anecdote though.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#73

Post by croon »

3dfan wrote: post #64
amelius wrote: post #11

What will happen if a deep-learning bug is found in Tesla autopilot where it misclassifies a fire truck for a bridge? Will they ground all the Tesla cars remotely? Or disable autopilot remotely? Until they have gathered new training data and updated the software?

By the time people are allowed to let their cars drive unsupervised, the crash rate of AI versus human will probably be 1:10 or so. So even when those cars ram into fire trucks from time to time, it would be better to let them do their thing. Otherwise people will grab the steering wheel, drive drunk, sleepy, angry etc and ram into all kinds of things again. Currently, there are 6 million car accidents per year in th…

In aggregate, humans have a lot of failure modes when driving, but it's also difficult to compare aggregate data with specific AI failure modes.

I have been driving for almost two decades with 0 accidents. I'm not saying I can't have a lapse of judgement or do something stupid going forward, but I certainly won't mis-class an object, nor kill myself over it.

I hypothetically want bad drivers to be replaced by AI because it's likely already better. But replacing everyone with AI (at the current generation of AI, which isn't the first, nor the last) will undoubtedly lead to tons of avoidable deaths, and I'm not keen on drawing a lottery ticket for it.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#74

Post by notsureaboutpg »

3dfan wrote: post #64
amelius wrote: post #11

What will happen if a deep-learning bug is found in Tesla autopilot where it misclassifies a fire truck for a bridge? Will they ground all the Tesla cars remotely? Or disable autopilot remotely? Until they have gathered new training data and updated the software?

By the time people are allowed to let their cars drive unsupervised, the crash rate of AI versus human will probably be 1:10 or so. So even when those cars ram into fire trucks from time to time, it would be better to let them do their thing. Otherwise people will grab the steering wheel, drive drunk, sleepy, angry etc and ram into all kinds of things again. Currently, there are 6 million car accidents per year in th…

Everyone on this site posts this comment, and they all ignore the fact that human beings crash because of their own issues (e.g. driving drunk) but Autopiloting cars that crash because of some engineering issue are a whole different can of worms.

Who is liable from an insurance perspective in that case? How can the issue be rectified (what the initial comment asked, we can't seriously just let people randomly die while the bug is fixed)? Will wrongful death suits crush Tesla (as they'll be trivial to win if such a bug does exist)?

Grapple with the actual questions, stop deflecting by saying "it's better than human driving". Sure it is. But what do we do moving forward? Modern medicine is better than leech therapy too but that doesn't answer how we deal with poorly developed medicines with harmful side effects.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#75

Post by kevingadd »

machinelearning wrote: post #42
gameswithgo wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no need for us to accept the flaws in the short term. People can keep developing this tech without us mass adopting it first.

I considered this before posting, but I think that human disengagements are an important supervisory signal for the model. You can’t hire enough safety drivers to scale this process and releasing it is the fastest way to get there. Simulations are not going to get you all the way because you can’t simulate the real world perfectly. Do you have any thoughts on how to develop this without releasing it?

Waymo appears to disagree with you, they ran tests with safety drivers and in controlled conditions for a very long time, and they eventually got to the point where there are customers riding in unmanned taxis. Tesla is just applying a "move fast and break things" approach to pedestrians' lives in order to satisfy shareholder interests and executive egos. They're not the only ones, as we saw from Uber's absolutely shameful performance that eventually lead to a death (safety driver involved but not solely responsible, of course)

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#76

Post by rootusrootus »

I've lost count of the number of people I've talked to who think that neural nets means we've created brains that will just magically learn how to do new tasks. So we just need more training and then automated is just around the corner.

Tesla, et al do not have the luxury of ignorance to explain that away however, they know what the technology is and is not currently capable of, but they don't want to admit it.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#77

Post by kevingadd »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #55
mplewis wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok. But this idealism doesn’t work when Tesla has clear failure modes that simply shouldn’t happen during normal driving. Humans generally do not give their cars haircuts by slamming them under a stopped cargo truck. They do not generally smash straight into stationary emergency vehicles. We can’t handwave basic safety issues away by saying “in aggregate, they perform better than humans in most conditions.” The basic…

Assuming that in aggregate they do kill fewer humans, then this is a rare instance of an actual trolley problem. Do you want to kill fewer people by changing the norms and reasons?

Big assumption to make if it turns out the numbers and data don't scale up once you do large-scale deployment!

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#78

Post by zibzab »

Iolaum wrote: post #15
amelius wrote: post #11

What will happen if a deep-learning bug is found in Tesla autopilot where it misclassifies a fire truck for a bridge? Will they ground all the Tesla cars remotely? Or disable autopilot remotely? Until they have gathered new training data and updated the software?

To add context. In Aviation, if they do find a bug in the software running an airplane's engine they do ground planes until they know more about impact and mitigation. Not saying cars should do the same, just that it's not absurd to consider it.

I can already see Elons angry tweets if MVA ever even thinks about that. Remember the Corona tweets?

What we need is a big fat lawsuit, since the government will not do anything to anger the only profitable US automaker.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#79

Post by lastofthemojito »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #59
gameswithgo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has already been happening but self driving enthusiasts just keep thinking it is great. And regulators have done very little and otherwise smart people like Sandy Munro get extremely mad at what little regulators have hinted at. It is wild times.

Munro sat down with Musk and enthusiastically praised FSD but complained about how roads were often improperly painted. Musk--to his credit--said the car needed to work safely even in the presence of paint errors. (Video is on Munro's YT channel.) Munro is very critical of many aspects of car design; I cannot understand why he's such a fan of FSD. I tried FSD on the $200/month plan and dropped it: It makes the car un…

> Munro is very critical of many aspects of car design; I cannot understand why he's such a fan of FSD.

Maybe due to personal profit?

https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/kxj0or/twitter_s...

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#80

Post by tdrdt »

It seems the flaws are too binary. 90% of the results are great, the other 10% absolute trash.

You can see this everywhere. For example those app that generate a non existing person. A lot of times the results are great except for that one spot which makes the overall result useless.

Another example is the OptiX denoiser (NVidia). You can get very nice renders in a few seconds which speeds up the workflow. But every time it has areas with a lot of flaws. This doesn't matter when you are still working on something but for production it is useless.

ML has it's use in a lot of areas where the outcome doesn't have to be perfect. But I am still not convinced it is 'production ready'.

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