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Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

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Re: Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

#71

Post by Guthur »

bawolff wrote: post #53
CapricornNoble wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>>Why would we ever pour money into such a terrible, incompetent system? Not that the US DoD is in any way a model of efficiency, but I suspect you are vastly underestimating the difficulty of the problem set. Over the past 200 years, the British, Soviet, and American empires have all failed to pacify Afghanistan. Probably the Mongols and Alexander the Great struggled too, I need to dig into the history of those cam…

Does china really have designs on Afghanistan? For what purpose? (I mean this as an honest question, i don't know that much of the geopolitics of the region)

Potentially with the belt and road initiative, which may now even expand into Afghanistan with the US redrawal.

Re: Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

#72

Post by captain_price7 »

implements wrote: post #19
Clewza313 wrote: post #3

Fall of Saigon v2. Although I have to say the speed at which the Taliban took over once the US pulled out is pretty astonishing: it's clear they have a strong level of popular support.

The locals keeping their heads down in the face of an insurgency the Afghan state is clearly unable to defeat probably shouldn’t be presented as “strong popular support” (the true level of which is supposed to be about 10%).

Taliban is certainly more popular than they were 25 years ago.

Last time there was a pretty strong grassroot movement against Taliban, particularly in the northern parts of the nation. Taliban didn't have to fire a shot in many of these places this time.

Re: Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

#73

Post by bawolff »

yyyk wrote: post #25
Clewza313 wrote: post #3

Fall of Saigon v2. Although I have to say the speed at which the Taliban took over once the US pulled out is pretty astonishing: it's clear they have a strong level of popular support.

In these parts of the world, 'defecting to the winning side' is a basic survival skill. As soon as the US stopped its support it was obvious who'd win (the people still getting state support from Pakistan). So why should a smart faction fight and die? To make the people who aren't there anymore look better?

I don't know that much about the region, but the us-supported side had 20 years and lots of money to prepare for this day. I would assume if they enjoyed more popular support in the near past they would have built something that would less obviously be the losing side today, and people wouldn't have jumped ship so quickly.

Re: Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

#75

Post by yyyk »

erklik wrote: post #64
yyyk wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In these parts of the world, 'defecting to the winning side' is a basic survival skill. As soon as the US stopped its support it was obvious who'd win (the people still getting state support from Pakistan). So why should a smart faction fight and die? To make the people who aren't there anymore look better?

The amount of support Pakistan provides Taliban is severly overblown. Did they provide them refuge when Taliban was on the back foot? Sure, probably. Is Pakistan aiding them in this current offense? It really doesn't seem like it.

ISI help is significantly more than refuge. That said, the Taliban didn't need help for this offensive. They've been handed the country on a platter.

Re: Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

#76

Post by mikaeluman »

The Biden administration doing this so haphazardly is irresponsible and with little to no reward - political or anything else.

Moving away from US centric debates on the economic value of this war and attempt at governance; I fear Afghanistan will again become a breeding ground for Islamic terrorism atrocities and also put increased pressure on Europe in terms of migration.

To the latter point, Europe is already on the breaking point here and further stress will probably - judging from recent experience - lead to further success of conservative and anti-immigration political parties.

Re: Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

#77

Post by fighterpilot »

throwawaysea wrote: post #49
sneak wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s more a failure of the people who sent them there than the forces themselves. This is a management issue. For all of the failings of the current US president, getting the hell out of an endless, unnecessary war is a good thing.

I disagree that getting out is a good thing. It means a terrorist organization will control a nation and harbor terrorists once again in the future (remember the same Taliban sheltered 9/11 terrorists and is still allied with al Qaeda!). It means we lose a foothold in the region, militarily and economically. It means rivals like China expand their influence and force projection at our expense, since they plan to reco…

I am also not fully sold on the idea that getting out is a good idea, but for different reasons. The growth of Afghanistan's economy (300-400% GDP) and the quality of life improvements since the Taliban were removed has been notable, and if this regresses then there will be a real human toll.

But not pulling out seems to be just delaying the inevitable, and a continued presence is expensive and arguably incendiary/destabilizing to the whole region, so I can understand doing it.

This isn't a commentary on the specifics of how it was done, merely on whether a withdrawal should have been done.

Re: Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

#78

Post by yyyk »

bawolff wrote: post #73
yyyk wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In these parts of the world, 'defecting to the winning side' is a basic survival skill. As soon as the US stopped its support it was obvious who'd win (the people still getting state support from Pakistan). So why should a smart faction fight and die? To make the people who aren't there anymore look better?

I don't know that much about the region, but the us-supported side had 20 years and lots of money to prepare for this day. I would assume if they enjoyed more popular support in the near past they would have built something that would less obviously be the losing side today, and people wouldn't have jumped ship so quickly.

The US built their side so as to maximally depend on them and then pulled support abruptly, while all but grovelling to the Taliban in public. There could have been no other result the way this withdrawal was done.

Re: Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

#79

Post by samizdis »

yalogin wrote: post #32

What a failure of the US armed forces here. 20 damn years staying in the country with the only 2 goal - to help Afghans build an army and help defend themselves and to eradicate the Taliban. They failed miserably in both. Trillions spent and many lost lives. Why would we ever pour money into such a terrible, incompetent system? Of course, the cycle keeps repeating itself and we keep growing the military.

There's a sobering assessment of US performance in Afghanistan, What we got wrong in Afghanistan [1], in The Atlantic from a few days ago.

It was written by a retired veteran: Mike Jason retired in 2019 as a U.S. Army colonel, after 24 years on active duty. He commanded combat units in Germany, Kosovo, Kuwait, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

It pulls no punches and, in my opinion, is worth reading.

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/how-americ...

Re: Taliban enter Kabul as Afghan government on brink of collapse

#80

Post by belter »

bawolff wrote: post #53
CapricornNoble wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>>Why would we ever pour money into such a terrible, incompetent system? Not that the US DoD is in any way a model of efficiency, but I suspect you are vastly underestimating the difficulty of the problem set. Over the past 200 years, the British, Soviet, and American empires have all failed to pacify Afghanistan. Probably the Mongols and Alexander the Great struggled too, I need to dig into the history of those cam…

Does china really have designs on Afghanistan? For what purpose? (I mean this as an honest question, i don't know that much of the geopolitics of the region)

Because of this:

"Afghanistan may be sitting on one of the richest troves of minerals in the world, valued at nearly $1 trillion, scientists say."

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/rare-earth-afgh...

The Chinese will ask no questions, will do the work, and wont bother the Taliban with annoying issues like freedom and democracy. A perfect match.

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