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Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

nytimes.com

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Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#71

Post by kosievdmerwe »

alibarber wrote: post #54

Honest question - I'm after good articles to read about this: Why is it that we have been able to eliminate things like Polio and Smallpox, yet there's doubt about COVID? They were both viruses, must have mutated, were fairly easily spread and it must have taken longer to vaccinate enough people given the advances in logistics and vaccine tech we now have. What's the fundamental difference?

Polio and Smallpox are terrible diseases, causing terrible deformities or scarring, while COVID is essentially a slightly more dangerous flu.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#72

Post by kickout »

optimiz3 wrote: post #66
kickout wrote: post #40

This story is also an example of the conflicting stories we get out of leaders? How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity? They were saying we needed that just last summer! That loss of trust in giving us correct/congruent information from leaders is absolutely hurting America right now

Information about the virus and the virus itself has changed since last summer. One adjusts approaches based on changing data. Being flexible is a positive trait.

Indeed. Leadership has been the _opposite_ of flexible. They stubbornly hold on to talking points and policies.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#73

Post by philsnow »

josephcsible wrote: post #43
don-code wrote: post #35

I'd love if someone broke down _reasons_ for vaccine hesitancy. It seems like the strategies we should develop for addressing them would be different, and that there shouldn't be a one-size-fits-all strategy, as we're trying to do today. So far, I personally have encountered the following viewpoints in my family and peer group (none of which I share) - in decreasing order of how much credence I'll give them: 1. I'm p…

For point 3, that's true of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, but not the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Also, what about this reason? "I don't think the vaccine is effective, since we still have to wear masks and socially distance after getting it, so I'm not going to take the risk that it might be unsafe."

It's been a while since I looked into it but IIRC both Pfizer and Moderna used HEK 293 during testing phases. There isn't a vaccine available that is completely free of participation, however remote, in the use of the HEK 293 stem cell line or similar.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#74

Post by drewcoo »

alibarber wrote: post #54

Honest question - I'm after good articles to read about this: Why is it that we have been able to eliminate things like Polio and Smallpox, yet there's doubt about COVID? They were both viruses, must have mutated, were fairly easily spread and it must have taken longer to vaccinate enough people given the advances in logistics and vaccine tech we now have. What's the fundamental difference?

This was written pre-COVID to put the anti-vax movement in historical perspective.

https://www.oah.org/tah/issues/2015/august/vaccination-resis...

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#76

Post by minikites »

burnished wrote: post #58
minikites wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in other words, people like that want to wait and see how it goes for all of the expendable people before they try it themselves, because they're the protagonist of reality.

This is a needlessly inflammatory take on the situation.

I don't have much respect for people who are that selfish. If the only reason someone is "hesitating" is because they believe other people are less important or more expendable than them, I'm not really bothered if their feelings are hurt.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#77

Post by paperwasp42 »

aphextron wrote: post #32
_-david-_ wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? I think it is more complicated than just education. The general sentiment I hear from people is in the past we were told that once we get vaccinated we could return to normal. Now we are told we still need…

>People are losing faith in the scientists because of their ever changing statements. I'd say this perfectly illustrates the complete lack of understanding of how science works among the public. There is never one specific stance that will always be right and hold up to all scrutiny. It's just highly intelligent educated experts giving their best possible estimate based on current data. As the data evolves, so do the…

I agree a general lack of understanding of the scientific method is a large part of the issue. I think an additional issue is how some politicians/political individuals treat science--"Scientists say X, therefore X is now gospel, and anyone who even questions X is morally at fault and an uneducated idiot."

Those sorts of inflammatory, controversial statements get amplified far more loudly than the actual statements of scientists, which are generally, "We think X is the best method, so we're trying this for now. But we have limited data, and as we learn more, we may have to adjust things in the future."

If the public only hears the first kind of statement (which are the type that fill social media news feeds), they're quickly going to grow skeptical of "Scientists say X" statements. Which appears to be exactly what's happening for some people.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#78

Post by optimiz3 »

grillvogel wrote: post #45

my wife has a phd in drug development and is concerned about the speed in which this was released and the lack of long term safety trials. is she antivax/antiscience?

Doesn't mean her concerns are warranted when the vaccine has been given to hundreds of millions and we have data on it.

A phd is just a certification. Take from that what you will.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#79

Post by kossTKR »

passivate wrote: post #68
kossTKR wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly think it's weird that more people aren't "sceptics", however stupid that word is in itself. I would gladly take the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine right this minute, but i also know of the terrible track records the pharmaindustry - there is so many shady examples to choose from it's incredible that anyone doubts how vulture-like that industry is, - also there was corruption the last time a pandemic hit: https://h…

I work in biotech (vaccines), so we have some overlap with pharma, and none of what you said resonates with me. Sorry, but you're applying a pretty broad brush to millions of hardworking people in this industry that is completely unwarranted. As an aside, nobody I know is going to refuse life saving medication because 'pharma industry is bad'. The pharma industry is no different than any other industry. The vast majo…

I don't disagree. Most people actually working with the actual science are good people - just as in tech. The problem comes from ruthless profit incentives, lobbying, marketing, investor pressure etc.

Nowhere did i say that the everyone in the industry are bad people, my whole point was about history of shadiness. That's not controversial - again just as in the sector big-data / internet business that i work in.

Anyone should be highly sceptical of any huge corporations.

I find it very weird that there have literally been non stop scandals, and huge ones too, and still people get angry when people are sceptical of anything "big corp".

Always be sceptical of anything with billions of dollars invested, armies of lawyers, PR departments that would shadow small governments etc.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#80

Post by ashtonbaker »

kickout wrote: post #62
MattGaiser wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity? It does not circulate sufficiently but neither is a critical mass of vaccinated people reached due to vaccine reluctance.

My impression is they are moving the goal posts and saying _no_ level of vaccination is 'good enough for herd immunity'

"They" don't set the goalposts - reality does. Also, they are not saying that no level of vaccination is good enough - they are saying that the level of vaccination needed is dependent on a variety of factors, and that level is becoming increasingly difficult to reach due to variants and vaccine hesitancy. From the article:

> Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population. Most experts, including Dr. Fauci, expected that the United States would be able to reach it once vaccines were available.

> But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible.

> As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again.

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