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Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

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Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#71
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should never buy a home that costs more than 2x your yearly income. So yeah, you should make at least $137,500 if you want to buy a $275k house.

I mean that feels pretty simplistic. Like most things, it depends. There are many things that I could know or believe that affect the calculus. For example I might get promoted next year and make more money or whatever.

Or laid off, or get into an accident.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#72
A lot more builders should be looking into steel framing. Light gauge steel has also gone up, but nowhere near as much as lumber. For the typical project, it's probably cheaper now than wood framing. Especially when you take into account that steel framing can be pre-cut at a factory with CAD software, requiring much less skilled labor onsite.

And steel makes a much better frame. Fire resistant, termite free, mold free, holds up better in earthquakes and floods, stronger, doesn't rot, doesn't warp. The problem with the construction industry takes way too long to adapt new patterns, even long after shifting technology and economics makes it compelling.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#73
post #59

Honest question: why are houses in the US primarily built with wood? Is it just because it’s cheaper? Even if it’s cheaper, is it worth to have a cheaper but obviously less durable building when compared to brick and mortar? It’s always been baffling for my southern European mind.

A wood frame is much better in earthquakes; it just happily flexes. Steel is an alternative but until the plague was more expensive than wood.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#74
post #59

Honest question: why are houses in the US primarily built with wood? Is it just because it’s cheaper? Even if it’s cheaper, is it worth to have a cheaper but obviously less durable building when compared to brick and mortar? It’s always been baffling for my southern European mind.

At least in my area, brick houses are actually less durable because they crack on our shifty soils

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#75
post #15

Gen-X: "We've got all this extra cash because we couldn't fly anywhere or go on cruises. Let's build our dream home in the mountains." Boomer: "Well, the 401-K is up a ton. Can't seem to spend the cash pouring out. Let's upgrade the house and buy a second home somewhere nice." Millenial: "We still have no savings because rent is insane and incomes have not kept up with inflation for decades as capital has played a la…

While not representative, I would imagine that for most millennial HN users, 2020 was their best year in terms of financial gain: roaring stock market, wfh and CoL savings, insane crypto boom, record level bonuses, etc.

I do understand that it isn't a representative picture, but among my friends, none of us have ever done so well financially in our entire lives.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#76
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't that assume that you can scale relatively quickly? Otherwise the effect can stay marginal.

You can though. Most of the labor is in skills that are easy to teach. You can take your half your seconds and promote to foremen, the other half as seconds under the old seconds. The foremen get the old third line as seconds, and you hire all new third-line people. There are a few people who aren't worthy of, or don't want that promotion, but overall the limit is how fast you can convince inexperienced people to wor…

With residential construction, most of the jobs are being contracted and subcontracted out, so promoting new foreman, etc. isn't even overhead the builder worries about. They just get new crews bidding on jobs out of nowhere

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#77
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is - lumber prices are about the same across the country. In SF Bay area and some middle of nowhere, where such lumber increase makes a significant difference.

Lumber prices are not the same nation wide because lumber is not thaaaaat expensive to manufacture per volume/weight so shipping costs to get it from mill the mill to the end user are a larger and larger portion of cost the farther from the mills you get.

I just compared prices of 2x4 and construction grade plywood between Lowes location in SF area and Austin area. They are pretty much the same. I agree, distance from the mill will matter, but not to a significant degree (not 3 times for sure)

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#79

> Lumber tariffs had prices already rising a year ago, but then when the pandemic hit, production shut down. The expectation was that housing demand would dry up for a long time. But instead, after a brief pause, it came roaring back. How can this be the case when lumber prices are surging in Canada as well? You'd expect that if the price was in response to tariffs then the origin country would be flooded with supply…

My understanding is the Canadian government put limits last year on how much timber could be cut. So their prices were going up no matter what.

Mills are the issue, not timber. There's an excess of raw timber right now, all of the wood from the wildfires in the PNW last year is being salvaged currently.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#80
post #59

Honest question: why are houses in the US primarily built with wood? Is it just because it’s cheaper? Even if it’s cheaper, is it worth to have a cheaper but obviously less durable building when compared to brick and mortar? It’s always been baffling for my southern European mind.

It goes up much quicker and requires less highly skilled tradesman to build and to maintain.

There are new developments in the states where they produce the frames for the various housing 'templates' off-site, and then ship it to the plots and build the house there, almost like a lego kit.

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