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Tesla Q1 2021 Results

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Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#71

"Model 3 was the best-selling premium sedan in the world, outselling long-time industry leaders such as the 3 Series and E Class. This demonstrates that an electric vehicle can be a category leader and outsell its gas-powered counterparts." I find this to be a major milestone in the transition to BEV. This is an achievement.

I'm surprised by how micro-managey Tesla is with their Model 3/Y prices. Most manufacturers release a static MSRP for that model year. However, Tesla the past year was dropping prices $500-$1,000 periodically. And then as of last month, has raised prices $500-$1,000 twice.

Other manufacturers are manage prices with consumer and dealer incentives. If you pay attention to car promotions, there's almost always a lot of differences in consumer cash back by model. Some manufacturers almost always have a baseline cash back, but if they want to raise prices, they can reduce that; if there's a model they want to move, it gets more, etc. Premium brands like to push leases and run promotions there. For the manufacturers with a captive finance company, there's even more room to play with pricing there.

I don't think Tesla runs promotions like that, so if they want to change the price, they have to change the price.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm surprised by how micro-managey Tesla is with their Model 3/Y prices. Most manufacturers release a static MSRP for that model year. However, Tesla the past year was dropping prices $500-$1,000 periodically. And then as of last month, has raised prices $500-$1,000 twice.

Is that in the US or Europe. In Europe they bounce it around a bit because of shipping costs from US and China fluctuating.

US

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#73
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stand corrected. Thank you! Still not exactly mega-growth. Especially compared to the share price.

Revenue doubling over 3 years isn't mega growth? Tesla isn't some start up that just IPO'd, it's one of the world's largest companies. Very few companies manage to double revenue in 3 years. So you might next claim that revenue only doubled but stock price 10x'd over that time period. Well the reason is pretty simple, an investor who buys Tesla before its revenue grows will enjoy a better return on their investment c…

It helps when you have the global media in your pocket

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#74

"Model 3 was the best-selling premium sedan in the world, outselling long-time industry leaders such as the 3 Series and E Class. This demonstrates that an electric vehicle can be a category leader and outsell its gas-powered counterparts." I find this to be a major milestone in the transition to BEV. This is an achievement.

This is a very tricky presentation of the larger image. The document mentions the "Premium Sedan" category market, not the entire market. So looking at the Premium Sedan market share in the US (which is arguably the most important market in the world) the numbers show a 1% decline in sales for 2020 - "The midsized car segment continues to lose share in the US car market in 2020. Sales were down 22% in an overall mark…

If the whole market declines but your share of the overall market raises and you overtake everybody else in that market that is clearly an achievement.

Given that this is literally the first mass market car by Tesla, achieving leading sales globally over comparable products by BMW and Mercedes is clearly pretty important.

And as they said, they hope Model Y will hopefully be the best selling vehicle globally next year.

This is important to point out after 5 years of FUD about how Tesla has no demand.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#75
post #61
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Premium is defined by price, not your desired feature set.

I think most people define premium by the build quality, interior design, options etc. But if you want to only define it by price, then the model 3 is definitely not in the premium segment. It's a very cheap car... So much so that I know a few people that literally joke at a white model 3 company lease as "your consulting job must suck"

FWIW, I drove a BMW 328i for 20 years. Paid $39,000 for it. Put 230,000 miles on it. I loved that car dearly.

I replaced it with a Model 3 and put 70,000 miles on it so far. Paid $49,000 for it, which is in the mid-point of what you'd pay for a new 328i. It's even more fun to drive, with operating costs at about 1/4 the BMW.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#76
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very tricky presentation of the larger image. The document mentions the "Premium Sedan" category market, not the entire market. So looking at the Premium Sedan market share in the US (which is arguably the most important market in the world) the numbers show a 1% decline in sales for 2020 - "The midsized car segment continues to lose share in the US car market in 2020. Sales were down 22% in an overall mark…

If the whole market declines but your share of the overall market raises and you overtake everybody else in that market that is clearly an achievement. Given that this is literally the first mass market car by Tesla, achieving leading sales globally over comparable products by BMW and Mercedes is clearly pretty important. And as they said, they hope Model Y will hopefully be the best selling vehicle globally next yea…

Selling more of the less selling cars is not an achievement by any means.

All the other companies are changing production towards different other categories, but the “achievement” Tesla wants their shareholders to be happy about is that they sell more of the cars less and less people are buying.

If you sell more horses worldwide out of the “four legged category” it has no relevance as long as less and less people are buying horses for transportation.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#77
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The inflated stock price is easy to explain: intangibles are part of the balance sheet. In my guesstimation, Tesla will be making electric cars with a range to dollar ratio that can’t possibly be matched by incumbents for the foreseeable future. VW and the rest are more capable of producing a refined car, but (again, my opinion) Tesla’s EV advantage is similar to the big three’s various inertial advantages that they…

So I just bought an ID.4 this weekend after seeing on HN on Friday that it launched in the US. I also test drove a Tesla Y just to double check Saturday morning before doing so. Tesla Y is for sure faster and the better drive. It's also like 10-15k more expensive and that's not even before VW's rebates. The interior was weird -- tiny headrests, tiny mirrors, and really poor back visibility. A giant screen in middle a…

These are almost the exact reason I'm looking forward to test driving an ID.4. I just don't care about the acceleration enough to have that be a plus. I hope you like your ID.4, it really seems like a 'regular car' BEV.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#78

Earnings beat but I wonder how this whole mega-growth story keeps being reiterated now despite flat revenue for 3 years. Don't get me wrong, I love Tesla and what they are doing for accelerating the transition to sustainable energy. That company is just priced to perfection.

> flat revenue for 3 years ??? 2018 - $21.5B 2019 - $24.5B 2020 - $31.5B 2021 (annualized) - probably $35-$40 B

Their guidance actually indicates more then $40 Billion. 2021 was a down year for Tesla. Given that Q1 usually the worst Quarter they made $10 Billion I would expect significantly over $40 billion this year.

And its hard to see how 2022 will not continue this, 2022 will bring two huge new factories to full scale, Berlin and Austin. It will also see launch of Cybertruck and Semi at least.

The list of companies that can grow at that rate at that size is very small.

Their automotive margin (excluding credits) has improved significantly over this period. Improving unit margins with improving volume is a powerful combination and Tesla, they are only just really establishing true global scale and global production. Their profitability has a good outlook as well.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#79
post #50

> We believe that a vision-only system is ultimately all that is needed for full autonomy. Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision. This is a huge gamble IM…

Unnecessary cost and complexity are the reasons Tesla has quoted before. One less sensor to buy, or replace when it breaks.

I’m not convinced. There’s good reasons they’re the lone player in the self driving space with this vision only play.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#80
post #50

> We believe that a vision-only system is ultimately all that is needed for full autonomy. Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision. This is a huge gamble IM…

Because cars are currently being sold as FSD ready so you can't ever release LIDAR/RADAR after the fact.
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