These vaccines have only got emergency approval . It is true that reliability of vaccines have caused some nervousness in society and that is obvious because no vaccine in history is out so early for use Must read https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/vaccine-development-b...
Whole world is going through tough time. I hope suffering ends sooner than later
US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#72We’ve completely transformed human civilization in a desperate attempt to slow down the spread of this virus that kills 1 in 200 people, and now we don’t want to use one of the miracle cures because of a literal one in a million chance of issues. People are absolute garbage at thinking about scale.
> now we don’t want to use one of the miracle cures We want if there are safer options. Not all vaccines are equal. Important question is why we unable to scale up production of mRNA vaccines?
> Important question is why we unable to scale up production of mRNA vaccines?
Where are you getting the idea that we can't?
Hundreds of millions of doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have already been made. Pfizer expects to make 2 billion doses this year.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
Seriously I can't believe this is that simple. There is no way public health bureaucrats don't understand this common sense logic. Otherwise they would all become vaccine deniers.
Healthcare is extremely weak on science. The profession existed before the scientific method so there is a tendency to value authority over science. Even today Physicians still think the body is Art, or a combination of Art and Science. And the only reason we don't have a science based alternative to the Physician cartel is that they spent literally $400,000,000 on lobbying/bribery in the last 30 years. Edit- for fur…
> The profession existed before the scientific method so there is a tendency to value authority over science.
Anecdotally, my pediatrician has an inverted "trust pyramid" in some of their examination rooms. At the bottom—least trust—is "expert opinion."
> Even today Physicians still think the body is Art, or a combination of Art and Science.
I'm not sure why you would think these two things are opposed?
Science most broadly speaking means knowledge, and the scientific method is a means (but certainly not the only means) of acquiring knowledge. But what you do with it is art/craft. Separating the two seems unnecessarily dualistic.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
Possibly they are nervous because it could signal deeper problems. If there is anything people should have learned from the pandemic is that it takes a few months for the medical profession to sort themselves out when new data appears on the scene.
This is the thing. A similar issue was seen with heparin a decade or so back. Basically the heparin molecule (an impurity I believe) was causing an immune reaction that cross reacted with a protein that activates platelets. Not a minor side effect and until the full extent of the issue is known (who is at high risk? How do we treat if it happens) I don’t blame them for being cautious.
Your sympathy for them being cautious begs the question of whether the vaccine, with its uncertainty, is worth using. The cost of waiting to use it is significant - people will die from COVID.
It's not enough to say you're being cautious. You have to explain why you think it is better to be cautious about administering the vaccine with its attendant risks or to pay the QALYs incurred by the delay when people who would have received this vaccine don't.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#75Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…
I doubt the correct communication strategy is obvious. Rumors about people dying from a vaccine can be worse than a pause.
A legitimate reason for the pause is to assess whether the people impacted have anything else in common. There are alternative vaccines that can be used if a commonality is identified.
As far as hesitancy, the idiot media already does a story for every vaccinated person that gets sick, this isn't going to tip huge swaths of people in either direction.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
> * Novel vaccination - barely month of research. Weeks of evidence and practice. We don't have best practices yet. That is completely untrue. This vaccine has been through several clinical trials for months. We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern. The reason we are only seeing this one now is that it is so rare.
> We know that there are no side effects that are common enough to be of real concern How did they establish that there are no long term side effects?
Not a doctor, but from what I've heard from immunologists, vaccines in general are incredibly unlikely to have long-term side effects on the scales that you think about. When an immunologist talks about "long-term side effects" of a vaccination, they're usually considering time ranges on the order of 6-8 weeks. Meanwhile, the 10000s of patients from the big Phase 3 trials have been vaccinated for 6-9 months, so the usual scale of long-term side effects has long been registered.
That's not to say that it's completely out of the question that there will be long-long-term side effects. But if anything is going to cause long-term issues, my money is on the virus, not any vaccine.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#77Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…
Paraphrasing one famous science commenter, we're playing Pandemic Trolley Problem and running over hundreds of people because we're not sure if the other path has one or two persons. It's ridiculous. Or as per someone that actually knows statistics: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381925025964515330
It may be ridiculous, but it seems necessary if you're managing populations of people:
Build a dam, which if it broke would kill hundreds-of-thousands, or let millions die for lack of water? Oh, we'll just over-engineer it, now we can't afford to buy food to keep the people alive long enough to need the dam; or the lead engineering firm embezzles the money and installs dodgy iron.
We can't wait around for long term studies, whatever point we decide to start vaccines - where they can still be effective for the current population - it's always possible we should have waited a bit longer.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's about 1/250,000 risk of clots, but they are treatable. In the UK there's been 19 people die after ~20 million vaccinations.
That’s assuming J and J has same incidence as AZ. J and J so far has had 6 clots for seven million doses. Of course some more may show up in coming days from prior vaccinations.
Ah yes, that is true! This site is based on AZ, but you're right it might be a different story with J+J. I wonder if as well, they'll get better at spotting the blood clots and treating which could also be happening - but that's just conjecture / hopeful thinking at this point.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#79We’ve completely transformed human civilization in a desperate attempt to slow down the spread of this virus that kills 1 in 200 people, and now we don’t want to use one of the miracle cures because of a literal one in a million chance of issues. People are absolute garbage at thinking about scale.
1 in 200 people? Maybe if you're above the age of 75 and have significant comorbities. If it was 1 in 200 for all age groups you wouldn't have to convince people that lockdowns and maskwearing isn't all theater, they'd be so scared you wouldn't have to convince them of anything.
1 in 200 is a low estimate of the average. If you are above 75 with significant comorbities it will more like 1 in 10 :/
Surprisingly, even the elderly and sick people often do not understand the risks.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#80Here's a question for someone smarter than me. Is there a chance that this number (six cases in seven million doses) will rise as regulators comb through previous reports of adverse effects?
I'm probably not smarter, but based on what happen with AZ I don't think it will rise. AZ clot cases rised after people became more aware of the issue so it was reported more often as the vaccine side effect