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How People Get Rich Now

paulgraham.com

71–80 of 941 posts

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#71
It's a classic PG article. Many true facts in there, lots of good analysis with just a few questionable claims thrown in here and there. At the end, there's a massive claim that isn't fully stated but implied. "Of course the Gini coefficient is increasing" translated means "income inequality is not a problem".

Firstly, Gini coefficient is based on income, not wealth. That isn't stated clearly. Secondly, there's absolutely no data on what proportion of income flows to which decile. The conclusion (income inequality isn't a problem) is simply based on an assumption that the rise in the Gini coefficient is based entirely on the wealth accumulated by founders, and that this is a good thing.

I think this post boils down to "people like me are creating a lot of value, please acknowledge it. Also there are no downsides to this accumulation of wealth". This would be fine if PG also didn't argue that policies like wealth taxes are harmful (http://www.paulgraham.com/wtax.html). It just seems like a desperate play to keep his wealth intact.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#72
post #42

I'm not sure what the intent of this post is. Seemingly, it's to encourage people to start a company, because it's so easy now and you can get rich (look at all these people in the top 100 that got there by starting a company!) But I'm not sure looking at the top 100 is a compelling argument. That's for the 0.0001%. How does the top 10% do? The top 25%? What about the median outcome? More than that, what are the trad…

The top lotto winners gained their wealth from winning the lottery!

[deleted]

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#73
> It's easier now to start and grow a company than it has ever been. That means more people start them, that those who do get better terms from investors, and that the resulting companies become more valuable.

This may be a quibble, because I think Paul Graham really means a certain type of high-growth startup in mind when he says "start a company". But the rate of new business formation in the US has fallen off a cliff in the past few decades.[1] The number of new companies as a percent of total businesses is 44% lower in 2012 than it was in 1978.

Again, I think this is different than what Paul Graham is talking about. When he says "many more people are starting companies", I think he's thinking more about a SaaS startup than a McDonalds franchise. Obviously that fits in much more with the theme of how people generate massive fortunes. Nobody becomes a billionaire from starting a landscaping service or an auto body shop.

But still, I think it's important to keep the context in mind. In the larger sense, entrepreneurship in America is very much dead. That doesn't mean that it isn't thriving in a specific Silicon Valley subculture, that to be fair makes massive contributions to the broader economy. But it should make us question what makes the Valley so different from Main Street, USA. If not just to figure out how to export the model from Palo Alto to Oklahoma.

[1]https://www.inc.com/magazine/201505/leigh-buchanan/the-vanis...

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#74

Im curious, if we wait, say, 40 more years, I wonder will the richest people again be heirs (of today's current crop of tech billionaires)? If so, what does that mean for Paul's hypothesis?

I guess the fundamental question is are we at the tail end of the Information age, does it have more room to grow, or is there a new technological shift on the horizon? Paul seems to take it for granted ("how people get rich NOW") that we have room to grow but who knows?

The information age has room to grow i believe, but will that be spearheaded by adventurous individuals or by big corporations remains to be seen. Most startups these days are either derivatives of existing products or highly specialized in so far as they know their end game is just to be bought out by one of the big tech companies. I find it hard to believe we will see a brand new company that will reach FAANG size without some new technological revolution.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#75
post #42

I'm not sure what the intent of this post is. Seemingly, it's to encourage people to start a company, because it's so easy now and you can get rich (look at all these people in the top 100 that got there by starting a company!) But I'm not sure looking at the top 100 is a compelling argument. That's for the 0.0001%. How does the top 10% do? The top 25%? What about the median outcome? More than that, what are the trad…

I think the point of the article was to demonstrate that the "wealth disparity" we are seeing nowadays is not due to parasitic rent seeking behavior, but due to genuine creativity and the creation of things people want to buy, and also that this was the norm except for the mid to late 20th century.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#76

I think there’s a different reason, companies just aren’t paying enough. Wages, even at 150-200k just really aren’t that much. 200k now is a lot less than 200k in 2010. The younger generation intuitively knows this. I don’t know anyone jockeying to climb the corporate ladder, and my social circle spans Stanford grads to no college degree at all. People are starting businesses because working for a corporation day in…

I think some of this depends on the area. Even in an average area, a $200k salary with a family could give the option for early retirement.

I make less than $100k and support my family in an average area. It does feel like I'll work until I die. If I were making double that, it would be a huge difference.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#77
post #39

I think there’s a different reason, companies just aren’t paying enough. Wages, even at 150-200k just really aren’t that much. 200k now is a lot less than 200k in 2010. The younger generation intuitively knows this. I don’t know anyone jockeying to climb the corporate ladder, and my social circle spans Stanford grads to no college degree at all. People are starting businesses because working for a corporation day in…

Inflation data: https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2010?amount=1 . I don't think that a 20% difference means 200K is a lot less. It's a bit less.

Unfortunately, for the last few years I have noticed more and more people no longer take government inflation data very seriously. Here are two (I am sure there are more) reasons why:

Housing, Health and Education.. these very basic needs have consistently outstripped official inflation numbers. Specifically on the US coasts. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the cost of housing is completely left out of that inflation number. Which in my opinion is kind of silly.

The formula for the index used considers substitutions. So for example, let's say Wool gets expensive, they expect you to substitute it for acrylic. If beef gets expensive, they expect you to substitute it for chicken or turkey, and so on. This isn't the reality people _feel_. For example, I for one, would realize I am no longer able to afford wool socks, and have to make do with acrylic socks. In essence, feeling poorer than I did before.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#78
post #42

I'm not sure what the intent of this post is. Seemingly, it's to encourage people to start a company, because it's so easy now and you can get rich (look at all these people in the top 100 that got there by starting a company!) But I'm not sure looking at the top 100 is a compelling argument. That's for the 0.0001%. How does the top 10% do? The top 25%? What about the median outcome? More than that, what are the trad…

What number of companies are created vs those that made people rich? I think the numbers would paint a different picture than what is implied by the article narrative.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#79
post #11

I don't think that the top 100 richest people is a good dataset. You can be extremely rich without making it anywhere near that list. While a lot of those top 100 people made it to that list by starting companies, I'm curious how many of them did so by leveraging family or inherited wealth.

There is a pretty low bar for inherited wealth. Simply having a family who is able to support you if everything goes pair shaped (maybe as little as letting you live in your childhood bedroom for little or no rent) gives you a huge advantage over someone who isn't in that position. Having parents who are able to lend / invest / gift modest sums of money is yet another step up the ladder. All the way up to having pare…

Yeah; the ways that small differences lead to big changes in outcomes is super interesting.

I was lucky to live in a state where my college tuition was mostly paid for, and with a parent who, despite making very little (worked in the school system), was still able to help support me with a stable home and to help cover some of the gaps (like living on campus). I was very lucky.

I realized later on the advantages other people had though when talking with people; a work colleague whose parents, though not rich, were far better off than mine, and had equipped her with life skills I and my family simply did not have. It was from her I learned about the company 401k, and investing in general, and caused me to realize that I should be investing money, not saving it.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#80
post #39

I think there’s a different reason, companies just aren’t paying enough. Wages, even at 150-200k just really aren’t that much. 200k now is a lot less than 200k in 2010. The younger generation intuitively knows this. I don’t know anyone jockeying to climb the corporate ladder, and my social circle spans Stanford grads to no college degree at all. People are starting businesses because working for a corporation day in…

Inflation data: https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2010?amount=1 . I don't think that a 20% difference means 200K is a lot less. It's a bit less.

But that is the government inflation, which is considered by some to be fake. Shadowstats [1] says inflation would be about 5%/year if we use the same methodology as in 1990, which gives about 60% over 10 years, i.e. you'd have to make 320k now. I'm just eyeballing the chart but if we use the 1980 method (~7% a year) it's almost 100% (i.e. you'd have to make 400k now).

For another example, Dow Jones with dividends reinvested gives a 180% increase, i.e. you'd have to make 560k. Of course this is not really inflation, but it gives a sense of how much you're missing out on vs. asset owners (please correct me if this is massively wrong).

[1] http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

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