Overview of Early Electric Cars • Hacker News Board

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#71

Post by Gibbon1 » Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 9:39 PM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #68

mattlondon wrote: post #25

It is interesting to see sentiment change over the years on hacker news. First EVs were too expensive. Then they were too slow/couldn't tow. Then the range was too small. Now people are griping that they can't "refuel" in 5 mins. I guess we will see what the next excuse becomes for people to continue polluting and why EVs "aren't ready" for their hypothetical/once-a-year/niche needs. Sigh.

The fundamental problem is that EVs might be doomed once fuel cell cars come around. Nearly all of the criticism of this argument are just a mirror of the arguments against EVs (often made by pro-EV people no less). So the real misunderstanding isn't with anti-EV people, but with pro-EV denying that there's a future beyond EVs.

I think fuel cells window of opportunity is closing fast and they have no traction despite a lot of investment.

EV's weight penalty is going away as battery energy density relentlessly increases. EV's capital expense penalty is also going away due to mass manufacturing improvements.

Charging infrastructure for EV's is basically a last 50 foot problem. Running 30 amp 240 circuit from a breaker box to an external outlet. Compare with the infrastructure needed for the 'hydrogen economy'. Every bit of it needs to be designed and built from scratch. Countries have built stuff like that but it takes decades. We don't have decades.

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#72

Post by pedrocr » Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 10:00 PM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #68

mattlondon wrote: post #25

It is interesting to see sentiment change over the years on hacker news. First EVs were too expensive. Then they were too slow/couldn't tow. Then the range was too small. Now people are griping that they can't "refuel" in 5 mins. I guess we will see what the next excuse becomes for people to continue polluting and why EVs "aren't ready" for their hypothetical/once-a-year/niche needs. Sigh.

The fundamental problem is that EVs might be doomed once fuel cell cars come around. Nearly all of the criticism of this argument are just a mirror of the arguments against EVs (often made by pro-EV people no less). So the real misunderstanding isn't with anti-EV people, but with pro-EV denying that there's a future beyond EVs.

Fuel-cell proponents keep claiming they're just around the corner but the issues with them are fundamental. ~3x the total energy use because of all the inefficiencies, and needing an all new infrastructure compared to BEVs where the grid is already everywhere. If FCEVs show up and are actually usable that would be fine but I wouldn't bet on it. They're mostly brought out as an argument for staying on ICEs until, real soon now, we'll finally have them. Maybe for long sea shipping hydrogen will work, but even for trucking the 3x energy input needed is hard to justify.

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#73

Post by sidpatil » Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 10:02 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #56

samcheng wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s true; we’re going to want a substantial improvement in charging infrastructure over the next decade.

We need outlets in apartment parking lots (they already have light poles, and block heater outlets are common in northern areas) and off-street parking. It’s pretty cheap to just add outlets.

Assuming that the existing wiring can support the increased demand.

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#74

Post by literallycancer » Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 10:14 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #55

literallycancer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's see. A 2011 diesel sedan can go about 900km before refueling. There's maybe 2 charging stations within 50 km of my central European location. So, the best experience I can have with an electric car right now is to spend a 100k on a car that doesn't work unless I live next to the charging station, or takes a day to charge. Oh and the car that I already have is not designed by Californians, so there's no stupid s…

That would explain why Electric cars aren’t popular in Norway... oh wait: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/02/norway-at-79-1-plugin-e...

Norway just taxes fossil fuel cars so much that it's cheaper to buy a Tesla. They are like a Gulf state. Low population and a lot of oil. Plus the abundant hydro. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from that.

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#75

Post by Hypx » Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 10:14 PM UTC

Gibbon1 wrote: post #71

Hypx wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fundamental problem is that EVs might be doomed once fuel cell cars come around. Nearly all of the criticism of this argument are just a mirror of the arguments against EVs (often made by pro-EV people no less). So the real misunderstanding isn't with anti-EV people, but with pro-EV denying that there's a future beyond EVs.

I think fuel cells window of opportunity is closing fast and they have no traction despite a lot of investment. EV's weight penalty is going away as battery energy density relentlessly increases. EV's capital expense penalty is also going away due to mass manufacturing improvements. Charging infrastructure for EV's is basically a last 50 foot problem. Running 30 amp 240 circuit from a breaker box to an external outle…

You can't build a "lead" as if this was a race. For one thing, there's no finish line. There's nothing stopping fuel cell cars from having their own technology revolution and a S-curve like adoption curve that displaces everything else. This could happen ever after EVs "win" over internal combustion so to speak. It's fully possible that EVs are still on-track to being replaced no matter what happens next.

The other thing is that we still have to pay attention to fundamental limitations. There are hard limits to battery energy density that likely to never be crossed. Extremely fast-charging will probably always be limited by its high power power draw. Meanwhile, fuel cell technology is advancing extremely quickly in its own right. We could be seeing fuel cell cars that cost as much as a Corolla[1], and cost only $1.5/kg[2] to refuel (or about 2-3¢ per mile). In a world were fuel cell cars cost [1] https://www.thedrive.com/tech/26050/exclusive-toyota-hydroge...

[2] https://renewablesnow.com/news/nel-aiming-at-green-hydrogen-...

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#76

Post by Hypx » Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 10:19 PM UTC

pedrocr wrote: post #72

Hypx wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fundamental problem is that EVs might be doomed once fuel cell cars come around. Nearly all of the criticism of this argument are just a mirror of the arguments against EVs (often made by pro-EV people no less). So the real misunderstanding isn't with anti-EV people, but with pro-EV denying that there's a future beyond EVs.

Fuel-cell proponents keep claiming they're just around the corner but the issues with them are fundamental. ~3x the total energy use because of all the inefficiencies, and needing an all new infrastructure compared to BEVs where the grid is already everywhere. If FCEVs show up and are actually usable that would be fine but I wouldn't bet on it. They're mostly brought out as an argument for staying on ICEs until, real…

There's nothing stopping FCEVs from being as efficient as BEVs. Even now, huge improvements are being found like 90% efficient electrolysis[1]. Future improvements in hydrogen and fuel cell technology could close the gap entirely.

Like I said, you're repeating many arguments that are a mirror of the arguments made against BEVs. It's pretty ridiculous to just repeat anti-EVs for something else while being pro-EVs.

The other thing is that this viewpoint is increasingly outdated. A lot of these "facts" date to the 2010s or earlier. These are more inline with a person being out of touch than someone that is informed.

[1] https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/03/20210307-topsoe.htm...

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#77

Post by erik_seaberg » Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 10:24 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #65

erik_seaberg wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it's feasible, but as of last year I've never seen a charger at a hotel. My office had maybe a dozen, which is already not enough—EV drivers were required to go outside and move their cars after a few hours. I don't know how often someone who needs one is screwed.

I always charge at my AirBNB. Just need an external 120V outlet. An RV-style outlet would work for L2 power levels. That’s not that uncommon.

Is it hard to find one with a garage rather than street parking? They don’t seem to offer a search filter for that.

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#78

Post by em-bee » Sat, Mar 13, 2021, 11:02 PM UTC

bobajeff wrote: post #60

mattlondon wrote: post #25

It is interesting to see sentiment change over the years on hacker news. First EVs were too expensive. Then they were too slow/couldn't tow. Then the range was too small. Now people are griping that they can't "refuel" in 5 mins. I guess we will see what the next excuse becomes for people to continue polluting and why EVs "aren't ready" for their hypothetical/once-a-year/niche needs. Sigh.

They are still to expensive for me. Also, I get all my cars used. Outside of that I'm still concerned about the carge time. If I drive out of town to visit my folks and I'm low on gas I can just fill up mid trip no problem. How does that work if it takes an hour (a generous guess based on my phone) to charge? That said I think the tech is cool and am looking forward to the price coming down.

for an 8 hour trip you might budget an hour lunchbreak anyways. so an hour full recharge time is manageable. if you are almost there already, you won't need a full charge to make it.

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#79

Post by DuskStar » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 12:06 AM UTC

Hypx wrote: post #76

pedrocr wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fuel-cell proponents keep claiming they're just around the corner but the issues with them are fundamental. ~3x the total energy use because of all the inefficiencies, and needing an all new infrastructure compared to BEVs where the grid is already everywhere. If FCEVs show up and are actually usable that would be fine but I wouldn't bet on it. They're mostly brought out as an argument for staying on ICEs until, real…

There's nothing stopping FCEVs from being as efficient as BEVs. Even now, huge improvements are being found like 90% efficient electrolysis[1]. Future improvements in hydrogen and fuel cell technology could close the gap entirely. Like I said, you're repeating many arguments that are a mirror of the arguments made against BEVs. It's pretty ridiculous to just repeat anti-EVs for something else while being pro-EVs. The…

90% efficient electrolysis doesn't matter when "getting hydrogen from the pump to your car's fuel tank" has 20+ percent energy losses. And from the tanker trailer to the pump. And...

This comes from the inherent thermodynamic inefficiencies of compressing something, letting it expand, and then compressing it again.

Re: Overview of Early Electric Cars

#80

Post by 0xbadcafebee » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 12:12 AM UTC

mattlondon wrote: post #25

It is interesting to see sentiment change over the years on hacker news. First EVs were too expensive. Then they were too slow/couldn't tow. Then the range was too small. Now people are griping that they can't "refuel" in 5 mins. I guess we will see what the next excuse becomes for people to continue polluting and why EVs "aren't ready" for their hypothetical/once-a-year/niche needs. Sigh.

Ironic that they were "refueling" electric trucks 100 years ago in 5 minutes. They just drove into a service bay and replaced the battery.

We could make new gas stations rent batteries. Pay a subscription fee and you can drive around with a BP battery and exchange it at any BP. 5 minutes work and a tidy sum to avoid long charging times.