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Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

theguardian.com

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Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#71

Post by 908B64B197 »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

Battery pack depreciation is the one thing that worries me the most.

But I wonder if it would be possible and cost effective to test cells and combine the cells that are still good into a newer battery pack. Maybe by the manufacturer.

Or to just rate an existing one and give it a score so the consumer can have a clue.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#72

Post by MrRiddle »

ogre_codes wrote: post #56
pretendscholar wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range anxiety?

Few people regularly drive more than 300 miles in a day. Most people drive less than 50 miles a day. The fact that you start every trip will a full charge means you only worry about range on the longest trips.

Unless you forget to plug in, then the fix is not as simple as hopping to the gas station.

Or you live in an apartment building with only public outdoor parking, then you can just forget about EV, unless you want to WFChargeStation.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#73

Post by r00fus »

strict9 wrote: post #7

I rarely drive, but can't wait to own one. Where I live (and for a lot of people who live in cities) there is only on-street parking. Will be interesting to see how increased electric vehicle ownership might happen for people without a garage or designated parking.

Might be based on something like this: https://thedriven.io/2020/03/24/siemens-converts-all-lamp-po...

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#74

Post by xirbeosbwo1234 »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #62
pretendscholar wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range anxiety?

Tesla cybertruck claims over 500 miles if range, which is more than most gas vehicles...

Tesla claims a lot of things. Their cars don't even come close to their EPA estimated range, let alone their pre-release marketing.

That variant is also expected to release in 2022 and cost $70,000.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#75

Post by ajross »

maxerickson wrote: post #53
ajross wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city) That's not so far off. Even large cities in North America have no more than a few dozen gas stations (and the UK likely fewer still due to things like London's congestion pricing reducing vehicle count). Once-a-week-or-so fueling doesn't really require a huge amount of infrastructure. That's one of the reasons we're all addicted…

I've been mapping Michigan gas stations on OpenStreetMap so I have some data ready at hand here. Wayne County, which is essentially all part of the Detroit metro area, has more than 800 retail fuel establishments licensed by the state of Michigan. (I don't think my point particularly rests on how the Detroit metro is defined; Detroit itself has 349 gas stations)

Well, OK, but I'm not sure that really reflects the subject under discussion (a recognized place with a sign or whatever where you know you can drive in and fill up).

I mean, to be glib: I have no Detroit-area GIS experience whatsoever, but I can type "gas station" into a Google Maps search for the area and count how many flags I see. And it's absolutely not 800. Indeed, it looks like 40 or so.

Surely there are technicalities that make other places "technically" gas stations too. But then, there are technicalities that make any AC outlet a charging station -- virtually every large retail facility near me has one or two car chargers, for example.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#76

Post by lastofthemojito »

mywittyname wrote: post #54
lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

I'm a MT diehard (owned 9 cars in my life, 9 of which were MTs), and I'm trying to think what my must have feature is for an EV. Probably some sort of aggressive or responsive driving mode. I mean, the reason I go with MTs is because I love how responsive it is. I still giggle when I'm driving around at 4000 RPMs and punch the throttle to get that instant thrust. Even with manual shifting modes on automatics, it's no…

My "save the manuals" score isn't as high as yours (I've owned 6 cars, 5 of which were stick-shift), but I do vastly prefer changing my own gears to automatics or CVTs.

That said, if you get a chance to drive a Tesla or similar, try it out! I did a test drive and liked it more than I thought I would. To me, the throttle response felt immediate and direct, reminiscent of driving a manual-shift car in the correct gear. You're just ALWAYS in the correct gear!

That being said, I suspect I'll probably do the same as you and keep a fun, old-fashioned ICE roadster in the garage for the occasional spin.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#77

Post by llampx »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

The recent increase in EV demand has come entirely from Europe. Really. China and the US were flat for the year, and pretty much all the gains came from Europe, where BEV and PHEVs are selling like hot cakes.

There are also some electric cars being sold for the lower end of the market, mainly because auto manufacturers have to comply with CO2 legislation and they can't do that only by selling expensive PHEVs, much as they would prefer to. On top of that, with more and more charging stations being built in cities and on highways, range anxiety is not as much as it used to be. Pretty much all new BEVs can go 200km in a charge and charge reasonably fast.

I believe 2021 this trend will only accelerate, especially in the US with Biden coming in.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#78

Post by xirbeosbwo1234 »

ogre_codes wrote: post #56
pretendscholar wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range anxiety?

Few people regularly drive more than 300 miles in a day. Most people drive less than 50 miles a day. The fact that you start every trip will a full charge means you only worry about range on the longest trips.

And the once in a blue moon they do have to drive more than 300 miles, they'll need to have a spare car to do it. They'll buy their new shiny very expensive Telsa and still have to keep a gasoline-powered car around.

This is a non-starter for a lot of people.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#79

Post by mywittyname »

99_00 wrote: post #2

I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.

> If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive.

If gas prices fall any lower due to demand, then production capacity will probably disappear permanently, leading to shortages and a huge, long-term rise in price. Oil pumps aren't like taps that can be shut off and powered back on demand. They basically need to be operated continuously because restarting them is pretty expensive. And storing excess oil is also pretty expensive.

We also have to consider that low gas prices are due to volume. Refinement is still costly, and if the volume of gas falls by a large amount, that refinement costs gets distributed among the remaining volume. Refinement capacity is even more expensive to bring back online than pumps.

I predict gasoline production will death-spiral at some point. Gas stations will be culled as prices spike and volumes drop. I would expect this to happen in a relatively short timespan, over maybe 1-2 years for the bulk of it, then a long tail of persistent decline.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#80

Post by maxerickson »

mywittyname wrote: post #54
lastofthemojito wrote: post #12

I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up. New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks. But younger fol…

I'm a MT diehard (owned 9 cars in my life, 9 of which were MTs), and I'm trying to think what my must have feature is for an EV. Probably some sort of aggressive or responsive driving mode. I mean, the reason I go with MTs is because I love how responsive it is. I still giggle when I'm driving around at 4000 RPMs and punch the throttle to get that instant thrust. Even with manual shifting modes on automatics, it's no…

The 2 motor Model 3 just about keeps up with a 500 HP Corvette in 50-70 times:

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a23685454/2018-tesla-mo...

https://www.caranddriver.com/chevrolet/corvette

Smaller displacement ICE don't keep up. The Corvette has a dual clutch automatic, so no torque converter.

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