Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced • Hacker News Board

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#71

Post by zaroth » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 11:28 PM UTC

statguy wrote: post #68

pdog wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you seriously suggesting that Tesla production will increase by 100x within a decade? Tesla scaling electric vehicle and battery production by 60% CAGR for a decade doesn't seem too ridiculous when you put it that way. And that doesn't factor in new products. Look at Apple in 2007.

At what CAGR has their vehicle production scaled over the past 5 years?

  2014   16,689
  2015   25,416
  2016   47,644
  2017   50,140
  2018   191,627
  2019   192,250
  2020   500,000 est

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#72

Post by Aeronwen » Mon, Dec 21, 2020, 12:19 AM UTC

nico42 wrote: post #66

sb057 wrote: post #9

Here's a two-second method to determine whether TSLA is overpriced: currently, their market cap is $659B. The combined caps of Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, Honda, General Motors, Ford, and Nissan is only $629B. So unless Tesla is worth $30 billion more than all of those companies combined, either those companies are undervalued, or Tesla is massively overvalued. Keep in mind, Tesla sold 367,500 ca…

"Skeptics say, it would have to sell every book being sold in the world today to justify its stock price" - Amazon in 1997 [1]. The stock is 50 times higher now. I have no idea if history will repeat itself, but I find the parallel interesting [1] https://youtu.be/8SSj7KwBwr8?t=660

They were overvalued in 1997. Even they knew it and started pivoting away from being just a book store shortly after.

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#73

Post by badinsie » Mon, Dec 21, 2020, 3:24 AM UTC

some blind MFers here. Teslas robotaxi technology alone should be valued at around 2 trillion today! can none of you really see the insane disruption that is about to come?

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#74

Post by peter_d_sherman » Mon, Dec 21, 2020, 2:19 PM UTC

WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #58

peter_d_sherman wrote: post #37

Er, yes, but... Everything in Economics/Business/Transactions can be thought of as having two separate dimensions: 1) Intrinsic Value 2) Perceptual Value (that is, all value that is not intrinsic) We might call #2 "Speculative Value" or value that can change relative to outside circumstances or conditions, and #1 value that cannot so easily change, perhaps "Fixed Value" or "Constant Value". Now, if your idea that Tes…

So true... "2) Perceptual Value (that is not intrinsic)" i.e. extrinsic value. This is the part that most stock investors don't factor into their equations but is something that has a huge impact on how the stock is valued and priced. In general accepted accounting practices there is something called "good will" that is similar. And it's how companies account for the value that is in addition to the economic value of…

Excellently phrased, and brilliantly stated!

Also, I didn't think about the GAAP / "good will" link -- that's an important additional connection!

Re: Why Tesla stock is vastly overpriced

#75

Post by pokerhobo » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

jljljl wrote: post #7

pokerhobo wrote: post #3

TSLA is more like Google+Amazon early on than Yahoo. Also, comparing TSLA to Toyota’s 6% margin when TSLA already has a 20% profit margin excluding ZEV credit sales? Pure FUD!

I’m not sure which profit margin you are talking about (gross? Operating?) But Toyota had a net profit margin of 6.95% in the last reported quarter, vs Tesla’s 3.77% net profit margin

TSLA had a 10% operating margin, but Elon’s stock compensation brought that down.