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Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

ox.ac.uk

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Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#71

Post by Tepix »

ksec wrote: post #31

Incoming possible Silly, Stupid and Lazy Questions, 1. Are there any vaccine ( of any Disease ) that are 100% effective? Or do we operate ( as I would assume ) something like 5 Nines effective rate and call it 100%? 2. Across all type of Vaccine, what are the average or median effective rate? i.e Should we expect Vaccine to be 90%+ effective in the first place? Or is that a wrong expectation to make? 3. What happens…

If enough people get a vaccination that is >50% effective, Sars-CoV-2 should peter out.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#72

Post by BurningFrog »

dragontamer wrote: post #36
ksec wrote: post #31

Incoming possible Silly, Stupid and Lazy Questions, 1. Are there any vaccine ( of any Disease ) that are 100% effective? Or do we operate ( as I would assume ) something like 5 Nines effective rate and call it 100%? 2. Across all type of Vaccine, what are the average or median effective rate? i.e Should we expect Vaccine to be 90%+ effective in the first place? Or is that a wrong expectation to make? 3. What happens…

> 2. Across all type of Vaccine, what are the average or median effective rate? i.e Should we expect Vaccine to be 90%+ effective in the first place? Or is that a wrong expectation to make? Sometimes, vaccines are only 30% or 40% effective, leading to terrible flu seasons. I don't really know the mean/median/mode, but 90% is really high for a vaccine. > 3. What happens in the case of 10% ineffective, do they take a t…

The flu vaccine problem is mostly that there are always several strains floating around.

A vaccine that is 90% effective against one strain may only be 40% effective against the collective.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#73

Post by bawolff »

threeseed wrote: post #32
bawolff wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google claims that the smallpox vaccine was somewhere between 90-97% effective (they didnt do fully controlled studies back in the day) Keep in mind, that controlling covid is a giant win. We don't need to eradicate it, just get things under control.

> We don't need to eradicate it, just get things under control Based on what we've seen there is no grey area. Either you fully control it which then ends up basically eradicating it e.g. Australia/NZ or you don't and then you end up like EU/US and going in and out of infection waves.

In an unvacinated population, yeah, it spreads like wildfire. In a mostly vaccinated population having small pockets, well not good, is not the same level of existential threat. Think about how concerned you are personally about measeles vs how much someone 100 years ago would be.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#74

Post by noneeeed »

mcdowall wrote: post #5

The key differentiator here is the storage requirements (2-8c ‘normal refrigerator’). That’s much more accessible to developing / low GDP countries as opposed the cumbersome and expensive storage requirements of the other two.

Yeah, the fact that this doesn't even need a freezer is great news.

The fact that we have three highly effective vaccines in such a short period is amazing and between them we might stand a chance of making and distributing them at the scale necessary to get things under some kind of control by August.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#75

Post by dvfjsdhgfv »

bawolff wrote: post #62
throwawayiionqz wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another huge differentiator is price. At $3 to $4, many countries will jump on board ASAP and stay away from the expensive vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna.

Maybe for less developed countries, but i think for major economies, the price difference is insignificant relative to the benefits of any vaccine.

If they actually get to 90% or more, why would anyone bother with the more expensive and cumbersome vaccines? Except that the EU already signed a deal to buy the vaccines from AstraZeneca, Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#76

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

bawolff wrote: post #57
jakozaur wrote: post #41

Title is misleading. They tested few configurations, we should use the most optimal one, not the average. Much better source: https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020... Good: + likely 90% effective if we use optimal dosing + no significant side effective. Looks better than Pfizer or Moderna. + already pre-produced at huge scale, 3 Bln doses in 2021 + easy to store and administer, just regular fri…

Interesting its cheaper than mRNA, i thought that was one of the benefits of using mRNA, was that it was supposed to be cheaper to manufacture.

I don't know much about the chemistry, but most new processes tend to be more expensive due to setup costs.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#77

Post by bjoli »

ksec wrote: post #31

Incoming possible Silly, Stupid and Lazy Questions, 1. Are there any vaccine ( of any Disease ) that are 100% effective? Or do we operate ( as I would assume ) something like 5 Nines effective rate and call it 100%? 2. Across all type of Vaccine, what are the average or median effective rate? i.e Should we expect Vaccine to be 90%+ effective in the first place? Or is that a wrong expectation to make? 3. What happens…

Superficially regarding number 2: on a population scale a lot depends on how contagious the disease is. The measles vaccine is very efficient (over 95% after two doses), but still requires something like a 90% vaccination grade to prevent outbreaks. Measles is very very very contagious.

Covid is not nearly as contagious, so to prevent outbreaks it doesn't have to be nearly as good at the same vaccination grade.

For an individual, however, 70% would not feel very reassuring, which is why we need a lot of people getting vaccinated.

Edit: fixed some autocorrect issues. I feel I should add: measles is not at fun, even if you don't have any complications. You become very sick. Serious complications are _a lot_ more common than adverse reactions to the vaccine. Don't rely on other people being vaccinated unless you have a compromised immune system in any way.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#78

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

jpxw wrote: post #34
shoo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing that isn't obvious to me is exactly how `n` is defined, and how that relates to how many people of that `n` were infected by covid during the trial. E.g. maybe n=2,741 people were vaccinated following the first dosing protocol, but perhaps only a small fraction were infected with covid. So the actual sample sizes being used to estimate the efficacy of each dosing protocol may be smaller.

Yes, they do state that all of the results are statistically significant though, with very low p-values.

And they should be accounting for double dipping as these are interim results.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#79

Post by vmurthy »

tzs wrote: post #59
afterburner wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The two existing mRNA vaccines touted earlier also require two doses.

I wonder what happens if you get two doses, but not of the same vaccine?

Can you share your thinking around why someone would want to do that given that a combination won't be tested (at-least rigorously). Are you seeing benefits from a logistics point-of-view?

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#80

Post by protoman3000 »

While we now get the results from various COVID-19 vaccines I see a societal issue brewing up. How will we deal with the perceived uncertainty of the safety of these vaccines and the surrounding (dis-)infodemic?

I read recently that in some European country (was it Germany?) the willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 went down from 80% to 60%. With these numbers policy makers will have a hard time convincing the broad population that they can rely on a due process and be safe. In the meantime there is a proliferation of false information and fake news, while in the past there was not much media coverage of significant side effects from a rushed swine flu vaccine [1].

[1] https://www.vox.com/2015/7/27/9047819/H1N1-pandemic-narcolep...

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