71–80 of 114 posts
Key point: > The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 6 November 2020 was 14.3% higher than the five-year average. But it is good to know that the measures to control COVID-19 are also suppressing flu and pneumonia (though not enough to make up for COVID-19 mortality).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Over the last two decades, life expectancy has either peaked in the developed world, or has even declined for some demographics. Seems appropriate to me.
Not in Sweden. Life expectancy has gone from 77.4 to 81.3 for men since 2000. It does go up every year except for 2014/2015 (80.4 to 80.3). https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subje...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/average-age-of-coronaviru...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am 100% certain that bunch of so called covid deaths were due to other things non covid related.
And a bunch of non-COVID deaths were COVID related. This is why you look at all-cause mortality---where in the US/UK at least, things look worse, not better.
Maddening that they don't manage to present clear data points - deliberately, or because they don't know any better? Like what is the point of comparing flu deaths between January and August with Covif219 deaths in the same time period? Perhaps those two diseases have different seasons? (Maybe not, but they way they present it, it is impossible to know). Perhaps all the flu deaths happen in December and all the Coron…
exactly. to boot, if you look at death rates for all of the UK, they have been on an upward trend for the past several years so it is no surprise that deaths would higher this year than in any year in the past five years https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/dea...
Calculated total deaths, 2015 (pop. 64.85 million): 595,258.15; 2020 (pop. 67.89 million): 639,048.57.
Difference: 43,790.42. Weekly averages: 11,000 - 12,000.
See Figure 1, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... for a chart of England's excess mortality.
"In week 16 2020, an estimated 22,351 all-cause deaths were registered in England and Wales (source: Office for National Statistics). This is an increase compared to the 18,516 estimated death registrations in week 152020. ... In the devolved administrations,no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland or Wales in week 17. Statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Scotland in week 15." (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...)
It looks like the peak occurred in week 17, with 22,351 deaths.
Key point: > The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 6 November 2020 was 14.3% higher than the five-year average. But it is good to know that the measures to control COVID-19 are also suppressing flu and pneumonia (though not enough to make up for COVID-19 mortality).
A whole week of data!?
I should warn you that you might have to scroll a little, lest you find yourself writing a comment in response before you read section 2.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you zoom out 200 years, this year's mortality looks awesome! Yes, the world has become a safer place to live in over the years. Given the downward trend in age adjusted deaths per million over time, it makes a lot of sense to compare only the most recent years to 2020. See here to compare monthly mortality rates for every country in 2020 to the the prior 5 year period: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-c…
I think looking at the last 20 years is pretty reasonable. All the years are within my lifetime. I agree we should not zoom out for the last 200 years. If the data only looks bad when you look at 5 year window, and not 20 year window, that seems like a pretty fragile argument.
Looking at one county's stats and ignoring all others is making a fragile counter-argument on worldwide death rates.
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid [2] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/death-rate
Earlier quoted context omitted.
A whole week of data!?
Oh god just click through, dude. Why are so many hn commenters obsessed with these banalities https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde... I should warn you that you might have to scroll a little, lest you find yourself writing a comment in response before you read section 2.
The spike in deaths from the UK's first wave is pretty visible in the graphs, and the spike from cases we're seeing now will probably take a few weeks to show up in the data.
Key point: > The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 6 November 2020 was 14.3% higher than the five-year average. But it is good to know that the measures to control COVID-19 are also suppressing flu and pneumonia (though not enough to make up for COVID-19 mortality).
Also, they didn't write the standard deviation, so that 14% is kind of useless
This really depends on how far back you look. I was looking at the data for Sweden the other day. If you look at the last 20 years in terms of overall mortality, 2020 is right around the middle: https://mobile.twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1295269941109764... It's certainly more than last year, or the year before that, but it's not an outlier for the last two decades.
Looking at the outliers Norway, Denmark on one side and Peru and Ecuador is so much more interesting: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking...
The interesting question, to me, is whether we will see a visible spike in all-cause mortality for, let's say, 2020-2025. COVID-19 is particularly hard on the elderly, which is by no means an inevitable fact about epidemics. Every person who dies of this disease would have lived longer, which makes their death a tragedy: but how much longer? Cards on the table: my suspicion is that we won't. I could be wrong, particu…
Add to that the health complications of missed cancer scans, "quarantine 15" weight gain, economic turmoil, lost education, drug addiction and mental health. I'm guessing middle aged people's death rates will be increasing the next few years with cancer, heart disease and suicides all increasing.
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker...
Scroll to “Hospital Admissions by Age Group”
So while some scans etc will have been missed for this age group during lockdown, they would also have suffered losses as a result of an overwhelmed health system.