Nice Who's up for adding simple graphs to this?
nytimes.com already publishes those graphs
Election Battleground State Changes
71–80 of 93 posts
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
AP and Fox made a mistake and don’t want to walk it back. The other news agencies haven’t called it yet.
I bet Fox walks it back if they call NV so they don't have to announce a Biden win.
I agree they'll walk it back as soon as it makes sense to do so, but not because they don't want to call a Biden win... but because it's their chance to get back on the fence in general, which is where any news organization should be at this stage. Overall, they have been calling states for Biden (and Trump) much sooner than most of the other news organizations, so they haven't shown any reluctance to calling it the way they see it. I wouldn't be surprised if they call a Biden win first -- it seems like they want to be breaking these calls and getting the traffic/views.
Brian Stelter (CNN Chief Media Correspondent/Anchor of Reliable Sources) said on Monday night that although the Fox Editorial department is a dumpster fire (not his exact words), the AP/Fox election desk is trustworthy and usually does a trustworthy job (it's not just Fox News alone, they're working alongside the AP).
I've been flipping through the networks and other than Fox News calling Arizona a little before they probably should have, they haven't shown any bias toward either candidate in the numbers. I can't say the same for the guests they have chosen to have on.
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
I bet Fox walks it back if they call NV so they don't have to announce a Biden win.
I bet Fox just holds back on calling NV for Biden (no need if something radical happens and it can be called for Trump) until both NV and either AZ is certain (and can either also be called for Biden or flipped for Trump without going in to an indeterminant state) or one of GA or PA (for Biden) is clear and can be safely called as well.
This is very likely what is occurring.
NV is trending farther apart and AZ is trending closer. NV is probably OK to call.
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#74Nice Who's up for adding simple graphs to this?
nytimes.com already publishes those graphs
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Why isn't there a deadline? there's a balance to be struck between counting every last mail-in ballot and concluding the election in a reasonable amount of time. it's probably worth erring in favor of counting everyone's constitutionally guaranteed right to vote, even if it means a week or two of nail biting over the outcome.
Why? This constant finding of ballots, along with the allegations of not being allowed to observe the counting by international election watching groups, and the withholding of counts (see AZ and NV), makes the process seem extremely opaque. This is what I expect of a 3rd world country, not America. It was not difficult to get your ballot in on time. They've been out for weeks.
Only thing I can find on international observers is about North Carolina excluding them [0], and this:
CBS News: Trump's attempt to stop vote counting "a gross abuse of office," international observers say. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-international-observers-...
[0] Raleigh News & Observer: North Carolina says no to international observers at election polling sites. https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/electi...
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
there have been substantial delays in the mail (possibly by design). if a ballot is postmarked before the deadline, authorities are obligated to make every effort to count it. I'm not sure what the deal is regarding the withholding of counts. seems unnecessary now that the polls are closed.
The people who need to speak to reporters to release counts are the same people overseeing the counting itself. So if hourly updates mean counting goes on until Sunday, while daily updates means we get final numbers Friday or Saturday, I'll take the daily updates.
> The people who need to speak to reporters to release counts
No one needs to speak to reporters to release counts.
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
I bet Fox just holds back on calling NV for Biden (no need if something radical happens and it can be called for Trump) until both NV and either AZ is certain (and can either also be called for Biden or flipped for Trump without going in to an indeterminant state) or one of GA or PA (for Biden) is clear and can be safely called as well.
This is very likely what is occurring. NV is trending farther apart and AZ is trending closer. NV is probably OK to call.
I also think other orgs are probably holding back on calling NV because AP and Fox have called AZ, and there is a psychological effe t of having major orgs having called 270 EVs when overlayed, even if no one org has called 270.
Twitter’s rule-of-two on election results may play a role here, too.
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#78Why do the estimated vote counts keep going up? Why has this process dragged on for days . Where do they keep losing ballots? Why isn't there a deadline? Why are only these states still counting? Great resource BTW!
Why does Electoral Fraud only exists in countries like Russia, Venezuela and Bolivia?
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Because a process that had never been trialed in many places was used at the national scale. Sure, I get that, but didn't anyone foresee that this will call into question the legitimacy of the election. To recap, both candidates have claimed victory at this point, despite no major media outlet calling enough electoral votes. This could have been prevented by simply not changing things at the last minute. Instead, w…
> To recap, both candidates have claimed victory at this point, No, they haven't. Only one has. The other has expressed confidence that they will win. but candidates do that all the time before votes are counted, or even cast, its not the same thing as claiming victory. > This could have been prevented by simply not changing things at the last minute. There's almost no evidence that that is the case. > Instead, we've…
Biden has a transition website: buildbackbetter.com
That isn't a declaration of victory?
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#80There’s a row in PA listing Biden with 104.3% of the vote in a block with 1285 votes (the differential increased by more than the total number of votes). Data error?
I also see 3 blocks in PA of 25k+ votes with 90%+ Biden (one is 97%) - can someone better at statistics tell me how likely that is due to chance given the other values (assuming the data is reporting accurately)?
Some districts in Philadelphia are extremely blue. 59 districts there had 0 votes for Romney in 2012: https://www.inquirer.com/philly/news/politics/20121112_In_59...