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Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

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Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#71

Post by anm89 »

x87678r wrote: post #69
anm89 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our "exorbitant privelege" is not going to last forever. When the imf called. For a new Bretton woods moment last week, ending that system is what they were talking about.

Yeah check out where IMF headquarters is and who pays for it then tell me again that the IMF is going to let BTC take over from the dollar.

The IMF already doesn't have a say in this. The USA isn't going to have a say in it either if 30 year yields go down any further.

Also I'm not claiming that the BTC will take over the dollar, I'm saying dedollarization will occur in general. This isn't a particularly controversial opinion at this point in the finance world. The average CNBC guest is willing to admit this at this point.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#72

Post by x87678r »

anm89 wrote: post #71
x87678r wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah check out where IMF headquarters is and who pays for it then tell me again that the IMF is going to let BTC take over from the dollar.

The IMF already doesn't have a say in this. The USA isn't going to have a say in it either if 30 year yields go down any further. Also I'm not claiming that the BTC will take over the dollar, I'm saying dedollarization will occur in general. This isn't a particularly controversial opinion at this point in the finance world. The average CNBC guest is willing to admit this at this point.

> I'm saying dedollarization will occur in general.

US Feds have gone overboard on tracking financial crime, but I really dont see people thinking Euro, Yuan or Yen is safer. Certainly non-CB cryptocurrencies are worthless as soon as sentiment turns.

> The average CNBC guest is willing to admit this at this point.

That really doesn't hold a lot of credibility with me though. :)

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#73

Post by anm89 »

x87678r wrote: post #72
anm89 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IMF already doesn't have a say in this. The USA isn't going to have a say in it either if 30 year yields go down any further. Also I'm not claiming that the BTC will take over the dollar, I'm saying dedollarization will occur in general. This isn't a particularly controversial opinion at this point in the finance world. The average CNBC guest is willing to admit this at this point.

> I'm saying dedollarization will occur in general. US Feds have gone overboard on tracking financial crime, but I really dont see people thinking Euro, Yuan or Yen is safer. Certainly non-CB cryptocurrencies are worthless as soon as sentiment turns. > The average CNBC guest is willing to admit this at this point. That really doesn't hold a lot of credibility with me though. :)

You keep responding to things I haven't said . I'm agnostic to how dedollarization will occur. I'm not claiming that it will be the Yen, the euro, the sdr, gold or bitcoin specifically.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#74

Post by baybal2 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #57
baybal2 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt if anything made changed since the era of gold, just sizes of economies went up dramatically, more common people are banked, and there are more option to do bank run against. Gold [ https://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_6_month_o_usd_x.pn... ] is of course one of them, but costs of many other liquid commodities have shot up counterintuitively this time as well. There is nothing "magical" that has happened…

> There is nothing "magical" that has happened to banks when they switched to fiat money Of course there is. Deposit guarantees are enabled. That and the central bank’s credible power to influence money supply and borrowing costs as well as act as an unconstrained lender of last resort. There is a lot of scholarship, originally from the turn of the last century but perennially refreshed, on the inherent failure modes…

> Of course there is. Deposit guarantees are enabled. That and the central bank’s credible power to influence money supply and borrowing costs as well as act as an unconstrained lender of last resort.

So it was at the time when the king could've simply set the gold rate for the currency, and do the very same thing with borrowing, and lending on behalf of the state. Just before, it was much more likely led to more angry people with pitchforks than today.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#75

Post by gamblor956 »

seibelj wrote: post #68
gamblor956 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theranos had a high market cap to, right up until the WSJ reporting revealed it to be a fraud. And on that note, there's strong evidence that multiple parties have been manipulating the value of cryptocurrencies, including especially Bitcoin, through various fraudulent mechanisms (see, e.g., Tether). I also used to be heavily involved in cryptocurrency, when it first started, and what I saw then is a large part of wh…

You truly believe that some scandal will result that drives Bitcoin from $240 billion to 0? And you were "heavily involved when it first started"? A lot has changed in 10 years, I don't think you understand this industry whatsoever.

I don't think a scandal will drive Bitcoin from $240 billion to 0. There's enough interest that Bitcoin will retain at least some value even when it's clear that it will never be picked up for general use.

A lot has changed in 10 years. Crypto has gotten worse. Multiple exchanges were hacked, or turned out to be entirely fraudulent. Black markets came and went. ICOs for non-existent and useless products. The discovery that major participants in the system were manipulating coin values and were engaged in multiple types of financial fraud. The uptake of cryptocurrency as the primary means of paying ransoms to hackers who have encrypted your website, database, or computer. Facebook attempting to introduce its own cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin Craze where awareness of bitcoin hit the general public and the techies who got in first exploited the rubes for everything they were worth(and cryptocurrency industry's response to the criticism: they should have known better!?!? That tarnished all cryptocurrency in the eyes of the public and they learned to avoid all of it, not just Bitcoin. That on its own was a fatal blow to the uptake of cryptocurrency in general use, anywhere, and it was only a few months later that Bitcoin started getting removed from e-commerce sites).

All in all, I'm glad I got out when I did.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#76

Post by bufferoverflow »

kyboren wrote: post #63
bufferoverflow wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't get what is the hate with the central banks getting control over the money Because every single CB in the world devalues the currency they govern. Bitcoin and other coins, on the other hand, are deflationary by design. Which means, while they can drop in value, they will not do so because somebody decided to turn the printer on and print a few trillion BTC. BTC is capped at 21 million coins. And some…

Bitcoin is not deflationary, it is disinflationary. The Bitcoin supply is still inflating, currently around 1.8% per year. However, that inflation rate will continue to fall to 0%.

Since the cap is known, that's already baked in. And since the coins are constantly lost, it is de facto deflationary.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#77

Post by x87678r »

anm89 wrote: post #73
x87678r wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm saying dedollarization will occur in general. US Feds have gone overboard on tracking financial crime, but I really dont see people thinking Euro, Yuan or Yen is safer. Certainly non-CB cryptocurrencies are worthless as soon as sentiment turns. > The average CNBC guest is willing to admit this at this point. That really doesn't hold a lot of credibility with me though. :)

You keep responding to things I haven't said . I'm agnostic to how dedollarization will occur. I'm not claiming that it will be the Yen, the euro, the sdr, gold or bitcoin specifically.

you too.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#78

Post by tanseydavid »

bboygravity wrote: post #46
nabla9 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BTC has no benefit over central counterparty clearing and settlement. Even if the technology would adapt cryptographic ledgers, there is no reason to use another currency for that. You use sovereign currencies as before.

> BTC has no benefit over central counterparty clearing and settlement. I can think of a few huge practical benefits: 1. Try to transfer money cross border within the EU/SEPA zone on a Friday. It'll be in the receiving account on Tuesday (and usually not in the morning). That's around 96 hours between sending and receiving. During weekdays this goes to 24 hours. Not even talking about intercontinental transfers. And…

Thank you for the time-scale comparison on a level with money transfers as opposed to POS Credit/Debit -- it is a more appropriate comparison IMHO.

Here's one interesting angle in POS comparison that I never see mentioned anywhere:

VISA, MC, AMEX set a high-standard being able to very quickly process transactions even under high-load times like holidays.

But they did this in part, because they practically had to...Think of holidays shoppers at physical retail stores lined-up at a cash register -- they need approved or denied answer ASAP.

But with that sales model is dying a noticeable death -- no one doubts it will soon be gone -- which brings me back to BTC and and me finally making my point

If you're making a retail purchase from Amazon and choose Next Day for delivery, does it matter that BTC is going to take 15 minutes or even 30 minutes to clear?

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#79

Post by JumpCrisscross »

baybal2 wrote: post #74
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is nothing "magical" that has happened to banks when they switched to fiat money Of course there is. Deposit guarantees are enabled. That and the central bank’s credible power to influence money supply and borrowing costs as well as act as an unconstrained lender of last resort. There is a lot of scholarship, originally from the turn of the last century but perennially refreshed, on the inherent failure modes…

> Of course there is. Deposit guarantees are enabled. That and the central bank’s credible power to influence money supply and borrowing costs as well as act as an unconstrained lender of last resort. So it was at the time when the king could've simply set the gold rate for the currency, and do the very same thing with borrowing, and lending on behalf of the state. Just before, it was much more likely led to more ang…

> So it was at the time when the king could've simply set the gold rate for the currency, and do the very same thing with borrowing, and lending on behalf of the state

No. The de facto currency was estimated mass of precious metal. The king could default, of course. But that is selective; inflation is not. Re-basing happened, but just as with money printing, it is tracked and accounted for and, in extreme cases, fled from.

Equating modern monetarism with gold-standard economics betrays, fortunately, a terrific opportunity to learn from works that have been peer reviewed, in many cases, for over a century.

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