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Escape from Creek Fire

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Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#71

Post by wolf550e »

dredmorbius wrote: post #28
ihunter2839 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you say "there was a heat wave" you are referring to a weather pattern that has shattered temp records around the state. After the last heat wave and following lightnight storms which triggered fires across the state, I don't know how folks could assess that a backpacking trip to an isolated mountain area is a good idea at this point in time. Saying "September is usually a great time" is a pretty moot point. It'…

Temperatures fall with elevation, about 3.5 °F (1.2°C) peer 1,000 ft of gain. Much of this trip was at 8,000 ft. Temperatures would have been about 28°F (9.6°C) lower than at sea level. From a starting base of 100°F (37.7°C), the hikers would have seen 72°F (22.2°C) temperatures --- quite comfortable. Dry air also means sweat evaporates quickly, cooling effectively. This effect alone is a large element of the High Si…

Your arithmetic / unit conversion doesn't work. Change of 3.5°F is same as change of 1.94°C, not 1.2°C. Change of 28°F is 15.5°C. 37.7 - 22.2 != 9.6.

(Water freezing to boiling is 100 degrees in C and 180 degrees in F).

Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#72

Post by dredmorbius »

wolf550e wrote: post #71
dredmorbius wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Temperatures fall with elevation, about 3.5 °F (1.2°C) peer 1,000 ft of gain. Much of this trip was at 8,000 ft. Temperatures would have been about 28°F (9.6°C) lower than at sea level. From a starting base of 100°F (37.7°C), the hikers would have seen 72°F (22.2°C) temperatures --- quite comfortable. Dry air also means sweat evaporates quickly, cooling effectively. This effect alone is a large element of the High Si…

Your arithmetic / unit conversion doesn't work. Change of 3.5°F is same as change of 1.94°C, not 1.2°C. Change of 28°F is 15.5°C. 37.7 - 22.2 != 9.6. (Water freezing to boiling is 100 degrees in C and 180 degrees in F).

Point. I'd taken values from the linked source, which appears to be in error. The Celsius values don't correspond to F2C conversion, as you note.

Though my final at-elevation result remains unchanged: 72°F / 22.2°C, a 15.5 degC drop.

https://treelinebackpacker.com/2013/05/06/calculate-temperat...

Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#73

Post by lucaswoj »

et-al wrote: post #59
volkl48 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could argue that the 200 people who got themselves stuck at a lake and survived via helicopter rescue didn't exactly make better choices, they largely got lucky. I don't necessarily think their decisions were terrible, but as far as reading it for lessons/critique goes: - I read a lack of knowledge with the roads making decisionmaking harder. More research on their intended route and their possible alternate rout…

Leaving a perfectly fine RAV4 and attempting to hoof 13 miles to another car is a really poor decision.

The information we had to go on was

1) a single lat/lon coordinate of the fire about 2 mi from the road

2) the plume of smoke suggesting the fire was many miles side

3) cars racing both towards and away from the fire

4) rumors that people were trapped somewhere ahead

5) advice from a ranger that hiking to Red’s Meadow should be safe

Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#74

Post by lucaswoj »

yread wrote: post #4
kepler1 wrote: post #2

Maybe I'm just being harsh, but after reading several times and figuring out what was going on, it's an instagrammer's slight inconvenience and detour being dramatized (or implied, given the photos and hour-by-hour narrative) into a life-or-death hike out, yet with "smoked salmon and mussels accompanied by biryani rice". They had a weeklong backpacking trip planned, hiked to where they thought they would start it, en…

Yes, while complaining about 4000ft of elevation and 13 miles. I wonder what was their program for the rest of the week if that sounds like a lot

We started those miles at sunset, after a full day of hiking, and in thick smoke

Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#75

Post by lucaswoj »

grey-area wrote: post #55
URSpider94 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know what you’re talking about. They literally turned around and tried to leave the very first time someone told them to do so. The rest of the trip was them trying various ways to get out that were blocked by fire.

Look at the map, they were told early on where to go and went in the opposite direction towards the fire, though the text skips over this without explanation as to why.

We got different advice from different rangers. One ranger on the phone told us to hike out. Another ranger on the ground tried driving out and told others to follow of she didn’t return.

The opportunity cost of trying to drive out was low. The fire’s eastward progress was slow so the hike out would still be there.

Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#76

Post by lucaswoj »

LandR wrote: post #22
sailfast wrote: post #20

This looks harrowing and I appreciate the person taking the time to share their experience and their lessons. Total technical aside: is this a submarine for a new version of exposure?

How harrowing can it be when they were comfortable enough to stop and camp for the night?

Slow is smooth, smooth is fast.

Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#77

Post by lucaswoj »

dvt wrote: post #36

With @kepler1 on this one. This is an overly-dramatized Instagrammer's take on a pretty low-stakes situation with plenty of leeway. I'm not even particularly outdoorsy and I've got crazier stories (involving bears, pulling people out of overturned cars, etc.). I was out kayaking this weekend, and even though we were just barely 2 hours out of LA, we were acutely aware and tracking smoke/fires in the San Bernardino Mo…

We live in Mammoth Lakes and are in the wilderness almost every day. Whether it’s avalanches, thunderstorms, or something else, the risk and beauty go hand in hand out there.

Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#78

Post by lucaswoj »

lizzard wrote: post #58

If you are interested in stories like this, and how people make life or death decisions in difficult situations, I recommend Laurence Gonzales's book Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why.

Yes! Also American Alpine Journal accident reports.

Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#79

Post by lucaswoj »

sailfast wrote: post #20

This looks harrowing and I appreciate the person taking the time to share their experience and their lessons. Total technical aside: is this a submarine for a new version of exposure?

Jaymie is a long time fan of the platform, with articles going back to 2013.

Re: Escape from Creek Fire

#80

Post by hinkley »

vegardx wrote: post #11
kepler1 wrote: post #2

Maybe I'm just being harsh, but after reading several times and figuring out what was going on, it's an instagrammer's slight inconvenience and detour being dramatized (or implied, given the photos and hour-by-hour narrative) into a life-or-death hike out, yet with "smoked salmon and mussels accompanied by biryani rice". They had a weeklong backpacking trip planned, hiked to where they thought they would start it, en…

You're being a bit harsh. There are some good lessons in what you shouldn't do, perhaps not intended so, but still interesting. We don't have many forest fires here in Norway, but we do have very harsh winters. Every year a family or group of people are trapped in a blizzard and die. And most of it could have been avoided by following the "Norwegain Mountain Code"[1], which I imagine is similar all over the world. Tu…

> Turning back before it's too late,

Turning back the millisecond the danger is known.

There are certain warning signs that should not be ignored. Each group sport has them and over time you learn to follow some protocols or you have to find yourself some new friends.

For cycling in the Midwest, it's lightning strikes. There is no place to shelter and the storm can move faster than you can, so after the first strike, everyone is counting time to see if they're getting closer. If they are, you turn back for shelter, even if home is in front of you. Most of the time that's a foreshortened outing, but on one occasion we had to double back to the half-way point and wait it out. Even though that meant a lot more time out there and a longer route than we planned.

When they mentioned the black smoke and continuing forward, it made me angry. I had a sudden flash of the conversation that had us holing up, dripping wet, in a little town in the middle of nowhere. It was clear who was going to win the argument before we turned around, even though it wasn't what we wanted to hear. We all knew the rules, clearly these people don't.

(Over the years I've come to recognize how above average that group was in organization skills, but one should still aim for a solid grip of basic safety routines from inclement weather to common injuries and avoiding/treating heat stroke and exhaustion)

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