With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

Post by margalabargala » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 5:24 PM UTC

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #42

ogre_codes wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998 The point here is that sub $40 oil is becoming the new norm. While these countries can weather a 2-3 year drop in oil prices, those short term drops are more and more frequent and the bottom keeps getting lower. Between electrification of transportation and reduced travel which may last for another 6 months (or much longer,…

As they say in the oil industry: the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. In any case, if the developing world is really to develop as much as hoped for and claimed they will need a lot of oil. Even if it is all renewables based (which is a fantasy) those renewables require large oil inputs to be manufactured (those 400 ton mining trucks won't be electrified anytime soon). So while I expect oil to be down over…

Post by mancerayder » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 5:26 PM UTC

samstave wrote: post #64

tomcooks wrote: post #49

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Emir of Dubai

I recall that quote. Sadly, while prescient that quote is - he still is (has?) done nothing to mitigate its reality?

Post by newacct583 » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #42

ogre_codes wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998 The point here is that sub $40 oil is becoming the new norm. While these countries can weather a 2-3 year drop in oil prices, those short term drops are more and more frequent and the bottom keeps getting lower. Between electrification of transportation and reduced travel which may last for another 6 months (or much longer,…

As they say in the oil industry: the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. In any case, if the developing world is really to develop as much as hoped for and claimed they will need a lot of oil. Even if it is all renewables based (which is a fantasy) those renewables require large oil inputs to be manufactured (those 400 ton mining trucks won't be electrified anytime soon). So while I expect oil to be down over…

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 5:29 PM UTC

Svip wrote: post #54

pydry wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not strictly a "wrong leaders" problem. It's much more systemic than that. Elect a good leader and the oil will provide the impetus to tear that leader down. Industry also won't form because of Dutch disease. Who wants to build a factory in Saudi Arabia even if it weren't unstable? Everything just costs too much because of the oil - land, materials, labor. Sovereign wealth funds also don't really solve the probl…

Norway kind of proves it is possible to make it work without the corruption. But Norway also proves that you need to lay the groundwork for that, before you lay any actual groundwork. I am not sure if these other oil producing states could reach a level of stability as Norway.

Post by ogre_codes » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 5:31 PM UTC

drocer88 wrote: post #65

ogre_codes wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998 The point here is that sub $40 oil is becoming the new norm. While these countries can weather a 2-3 year drop in oil prices, those short term drops are more and more frequent and the bottom keeps getting lower. Between electrification of transportation and reduced travel which may last for another 6 months (or much longer,…

"The point here is that sub $40 oil is becoming the new norm" Crude is currently $41.74 as of 1:10PM EDT.