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Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

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Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#71
post #29
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roughly 1 in 3 american households are behind on their housing payments. Most states (and all federally backed mortgages) have temporarily suspended evictions so the short answer is that people in financial distress dropped that expense, which is usually the single largest on most people's budgets (for low-income people this can often be 50% or more of take-home depending on the city - yes, the rule of thumb is that…

Almost 40% of homes in America are owned free and clear (no mortgage). https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendarichardson/2019/07/26/nea...

>Almost 40% of homes in America are owned free and clear (no mortgage).

looking merely at owned homes is ignoring everybody that rents. Renters falling behind on their rent are equally likely to be evicted as soon as the moratoriums are listed.

(and that in fact goes to my point about "your rent/mortgage is someone else's asset", a renter who's not making mortgage payments is probably still putting someone else's mortgage in the red and causing havoc in the rest of the financial system. I don't personally shed too much of a tier for the personal finances of highly overleveraged landlords doing the BRRRR type bullshit, it's been screwing up pricing for renters for a decade now, but it's a problem for the rest of the financial system too.)

BRRRR: https://investfourmore.com/brrrr-method/

Also, as another poster mentioned, the demographics of home ownership tilt very differently. Lots of boomers own their homes, in many cases free and clear. The numbers for people in their 30s (let alone 20s) are pretty low these days, so your statistic basically ignores everyone under 50.

(And in fact even if we got younger people into homes, the same wealth transfer that boomers enjoyed probably cannot be replicated - it was artificially created by lowering interest rates from the highs of 19% in the 70s/80s down to basically 0% now, allowing people to finance much larger amounts of money and causing the underlying asset values to soar. Nor would it be desirable to do so.)

And in general I disagree with your comment further down in the thread about "you can say anything with statistics". The obvious thrust of that argument is: gee, I guess we better just not use statistics and argue about feelings instead. That's so much better.

It's pretty much an argument made by people whose positions can't be justified by actual data - they don't reconsider their positions, they just want to stop looking at the data.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#72

"Government doesn't work. Elect us and we'll prove it!" --One of the two major political parties in the US. We get the government we voted for, so I guess that's the one we deserve.

> We get the government we voted for, so I guess that's the one we deserve.

Underrated comment. We elected a joke president with a track record of failures, reneging on promises and bad leadership. Those attributes combined with a pandemic is showing us what we deserve for our choices.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#73

Our government has failed in their response at local, state, and federal levels. The other thing we're going to be seeing soon is that these Unemployment programs have failed to do what they're ordained to do. This is an anecdote, but my brother was furloughed and has been waiting on any money (including the first stimulus) for literally months

> any money (including the first stimulus) for literally months I got mine almost immediately. What is the difference between me and your brother, I don't understand.

A buddy of mine got his too within days, I wait since early May.

The EDD (California) did process millions of applications (or so they claim), but more than a million are still outstanding.

The problem seems to me to be in their mission objective: they view every applicant first and foremost as a potential "wellfare queen" and attempt to prove that as a fact (17 years ago, in the aftermath of the Internet bubble burst, I lost my job as well, applied for unemployment insurance benefit and the phone interview I went though was as bizarre as unpleasant -- I didn't get to the phone interview this time 'round).

I wished they would rather operate like the IRS: after preliminary, automated checks using tax records (was the person employed by employer as claimed, is that person now employed?) hand out the money and perform selective, random in-depth audits asynchronously.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#74
post #62
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is by design. I wish our state (Oregon) was of similar design so that all interests are represented. As it is now the populous centers, mostly Portland and Eugene, dictate their values to the rest of the state.

Rural areas are already heavily overrepresented in the american system. We certainly don't need to put the thumb on the scale further. The ultimate problem is that "the rest of the state" (for virtually all states) is empty, hardly anybody lives there, and letting a minority override the will of everybody else is tyranny of the minority. Taken to the extreme, this is ultimately what killed South Africa and Rhodesia a…

You don't think the people who live somewhere should have a say in what happens there?

Having city dwellers decide what happens in rural areas is the tyranny of imperialism.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#75
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure. I posted that to point out the danger of these statistics. We have to be careful. People can tell whatever kind of story they want to tell (at either extreme) and cite the same statistics. Mark Twain made this quip widely known, and it is relevant: "Lies. Damned Lies. And statistics"

Benjamin Disraeli made it famous; he said it first. Mark Twain made it famous with Americans.

This is probably wrong. Quoting from the wikipedia article on this phrase:

  > The phrase derives from the full sentence, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.";
  > it was popularized in the United States by Mark Twain and others, who mistakenly attributed it to the British prime 
  > minister Benjamin Disraeli. The phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were
  > years after his death. The phrase was attributed to an anonymous writer in mid-1891 and later that year to Sir 
  > Charles Dilke, but several others have been listed as originators of the quote, including frequent erroneous 
  > attribution to Twain himself.  
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies%2C_damned_lies%2C_and_sta...

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#77
post #32

Can UBI(Universal Basic Income) scheme help to overcome Unemployment crisis ?

> Can UBI scheme help to overcome Unemployment crisis ? @varbhat You realize that UBI requires monies, right? The US Federal government, and most states, are bankrupt. There is no money for this years bills. There was no money for last years bills, and we keep borrowing at exorbitant interest rates. Our deficit (shortfall for this year) is -more than- 2.7 trillion dollars. Our debt (shortfall for previous years) is -…

Money is created by the government, and creating more of it to distributed equally across individuals just redistributes the relative purchasing power from people with more than average to people with less than average.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economic data ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL#0 ) is showing deflation. The quantitative easing has so far been deflationary. The Fed can lower interest rates, but it cannot make people spend. People are unemployed and scared, they are not borrowing money, and it shows in the lending data as well ( https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.h... ) where we can see falling numbers in…

I am speaking anecdotally here but.. Deflation? I can’t think of a single product that has gone down in price and numerous things are more expensive. In particular, virtually every single food item at the grocery store is more expensive than it was in March. Am I the only one who has experienced this? It seems like basic staples (milk, eggs, flour) are substantially more expensive than a few months ago.

Oil/Gasoline went down in price early this year quite dramatically. This (as energy cost) is included with a heavy weight in the price index calculation.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#79
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rural areas are already heavily overrepresented in the american system. We certainly don't need to put the thumb on the scale further. The ultimate problem is that "the rest of the state" (for virtually all states) is empty, hardly anybody lives there, and letting a minority override the will of everybody else is tyranny of the minority. Taken to the extreme, this is ultimately what killed South Africa and Rhodesia a…

You don't think the people who live somewhere should have a say in what happens there? Having city dwellers decide what happens in rural areas is the tyranny of imperialism.

So it's better to have rural dwellers with an outsized voice in deciding what happens in city areas?

You also are performing a convenient geographic sidestep where suddenly "where you live" isn't the country or even the state but is really only concerned with the local. So the rest of the people who live in the nation are diminished.

Localism has led to lots of problems in American history, now we can add a shitshow of a Coronavirus response on top of the others.

The party of localism tends to be gung-ho about that huge federal military operation... yet refuses a necessarily-similar intervention in a pandemic.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#80
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rural areas are already heavily overrepresented in the american system. We certainly don't need to put the thumb on the scale further. The ultimate problem is that "the rest of the state" (for virtually all states) is empty, hardly anybody lives there, and letting a minority override the will of everybody else is tyranny of the minority. Taken to the extreme, this is ultimately what killed South Africa and Rhodesia a…

You don't think the people who live somewhere should have a say in what happens there? Having city dwellers decide what happens in rural areas is the tyranny of imperialism.

That is an argument for federalism, not vote tally inequality.
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