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How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

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Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#71

Post by stnmtn »

lazyloop wrote: post #67
D13Fd wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two categories of ways this can resolve: (1) We beat the coronavirus. People no longer regularly get infected. (2) Coronavirus is here to stay. We'll all get it eventually just like we all eventually get colds and the flu. I think it's pretty clear at this point that (1) isn't happening, at least absent a vaccine. If we do get a vaccine, it may be a polio/measles type situation where we can eliminate the di…

Shutdowns also give the virus more time and incentive to evolve into more contagious variants with much milder symptoms. If we delay it long enough it can actually end up just being like the seasonal flu.

I know nothing about this, but from what you're saying it sounds like the more contagious a virus is, the milder it's symptoms are? Is this usually true for all viruses or did I just misread your comment

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#72

Post by stnmtn »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #33
Eric_WVGG wrote: post #5

I find it useful and illuminating to just come up with some common large spaces and make a few estimates… - remember the last time you were at the movies? Three people dropped dead during your screening of Avengers. - two people dying per subway car on your morning rush hour commute into the city - seven of the kids in your child’s high school graduating class die. he probably knew at least a couple by name. … but th…

Only about 1% of the people dying from covid are under 35. That's the big monkey wrench. If it was kids dying, I think the perception would be very different. There's other factors even more difficult to discuss than age. The state is powerless to shape policy in a way that adequately fits the risk due to Western culture's focus on individual rights. It's up to us to shape our behavior. Are we adult enough to have th…

Maybe this isn't an extremely mature question and is kind of a "gotcha!" question, but which one of your older relatives would you be willing to sacrifice for this?

Because if this is what we are talking about, then that question has to be thought of. It's might be easier when it's just "old people", but not when it actually affects your life

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#73

Post by fomine3 »

majewsky wrote: post #68
6nf wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good job ignoring the other examples

Japan and Korea have had experiences with SARS-CoV-1 back in the day. Therefore, using face masks in everyday life is ingrained in their culture by now. It would certainly be interesting to see data points from an alternate reality where the US population was consistent about wearing face masks in public.

Japan has no experiences with SARS-CoV-1

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#74

Post by Consultant32452 »

stnmtn wrote: post #72
Consultant32452 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only about 1% of the people dying from covid are under 35. That's the big monkey wrench. If it was kids dying, I think the perception would be very different. There's other factors even more difficult to discuss than age. The state is powerless to shape policy in a way that adequately fits the risk due to Western culture's focus on individual rights. It's up to us to shape our behavior. Are we adult enough to have th…

Maybe this isn't an extremely mature question and is kind of a "gotcha!" question, but which one of your older relatives would you be willing to sacrifice for this? Because if this is what we are talking about, then that question has to be thought of. It's might be easier when it's just "old people", but not when it actually affects your life

I explicitly supported protecting the high risk populations when I said it's up to us to shape our behaviors.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#75

Post by Eric_WVGG »

revicon wrote: post #55
Eric_WVGG wrote: post #5

I find it useful and illuminating to just come up with some common large spaces and make a few estimates… - remember the last time you were at the movies? Three people dropped dead during your screening of Avengers. - two people dying per subway car on your morning rush hour commute into the city - seven of the kids in your child’s high school graduating class die. he probably knew at least a couple by name. … but th…

I don't think your death rate analogies match the data. Here's the current day by day COVID death rates going back to Feb 1st. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

I was trying to make the point is that “1%” doesn’t sound like a lot, but is actually a huge number when you’re dealing with a commodity as supposedly important as human lives.

There are certainly all kinds of nuances and unknowns to the survival (and partially-survived) rates. Those idiots sayin “only 1% of blah blah” are the ones I take issue with.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#76

Post by noxer »

6nf wrote: post #66
noxer wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you even read my post? Do you think people in Sweden still went to the the cinema watching 2h long movies with 200 other people in the same room when everyone around them closed everything? Do you think it needed a ban/regulation for that to stop? People in Sweden knew exactly what everyone around them did. Also Sweden death per million is one of the highest despite the fact they got it rather late and hospitals…

Good job ignoring the other examples

I don't need to name them all, my post made a general statement that may or may not be true but certainly would apply to all countries with access to international news.
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