[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20200117115242/https://www.cmegr...
[2] https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-swee...
71–80 of 182 posts
[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20200117115242/https://www.cmegr...
[2] https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-swee...
> Peterffy said there’s a problem with how exchanges design their contracts because the trading dries up as they near expiration. The May oil futures contract -- the one that went negative -- expired the day after the historic plunge, so most of the market had moved to trading the June contract, which expires May 19 and currently trades around $24 a barrel. > “That’s how it’s possible for these contracts to go absolu…
> It’s pretty well known that commodity futures contracts are a game of hot potato Very much so. I wrote software for financial traders in the 1990s, and I heard tell of a couple of clerks (in this context, sort of "trader intern") who thought they were smart enough to do a little commodity metal trading on the side. However, they didn't quite understand the details of contract expiration, and so supposedly they ende…
> Peterffy said there’s a problem with how exchanges design their contracts because the trading dries up as they near expiration. The May oil futures contract -- the one that went negative -- expired the day after the historic plunge, so most of the market had moved to trading the June contract, which expires May 19 and currently trades around $24 a barrel. > “That’s how it’s possible for these contracts to go absolu…
> It’s pretty well known that commodity futures contracts are a game of hot potato Very much so. I wrote software for financial traders in the 1990s, and I heard tell of a couple of clerks (in this context, sort of "trader intern") who thought they were smart enough to do a little commodity metal trading on the side. However, they didn't quite understand the details of contract expiration, and so supposedly they ende…
Wasn't the original purpose of futures to let farmers and others lock in prices early so they can mitigate risk? Speculation on futures seems dumb if you have no intention of taking delivery.
A lot of businesses are impacted by the price of oil even if they don’t directly take delivery. It serves as a really valuable hedge for airlines for example, where it’s a key cost driver, even if it has to go through a refinery first.
Seriously, do people enter into contracts like this in other parts of their life?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cash settled contracts exist. These people just chose not to buy them. The question is how to structure physically settled contracts. After all, oil needs to get delivered to someone at some point.
If you get into the market for physically settled contracts with no intention of taking delivery, then you're almost certainly a speculator. I'm not sure that it's the market's job to make that safer for you. I am not justifying inaccurate pricing. Burning speculators is fine, but give everyone accurate information.
Hard disagree. There are lots of reasons people with legitimate hedging concerns who don't intend to take physical delivery prefer the physical contract to a CSC (if it's even available).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It’s pretty well known that commodity futures contracts are a game of hot potato Very much so. I wrote software for financial traders in the 1990s, and I heard tell of a couple of clerks (in this context, sort of "trader intern") who thought they were smart enough to do a little commodity metal trading on the side. However, they didn't quite understand the details of contract expiration, and so supposedly they ende…
Sounds apocryphal.
And at least in Chicago in the 1990s, traders and clerks could definitely be wild. During slow periods on the CME floor somebody would get a transparent trash bag, declare it a $20 bag, and then walk around with it. People would write their names on $20s and throw them in. Once they'd made the rounds, they'd shake the bag and have somebody draw from it. I myself saw thousands of dollars change hands like this. And clerks would regularly bet one another about jumping into the Chicago river from Upper Wacker, which is a fair drop.
Or there was one incident that was witnessed by a couple of our traders, as it happened in their pit at the CBOT. One afternoon among all the colored coats, they see somebody in a polar bear costume walking around the trading floor between the pits. One trader turns to another and says, "I'll pay you $100 if you punch the polar bear." The trader thinks about it, takes the $100, goes over, lays out the polar bear, and then in the chaos goes back to his pit. This turned out to be a bad trade, as the polar bear was there as a fundraiser for the Lincoln Park Zoo, and one of the people on the zoo's board was also on the exchange's board. Oops!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or possibly someone who needs large amounts of oil and want to hedge against fluctuations? Freight industry, airliner, etc.
Airlines buy futures in Jet A or Jet A-1. They have no interest in crude oil because they aren't refiners and they have nothing to do with it. The freight industry will similarly buy futures in bunker fuel, diesel, or whatever exactly they use to fuel their vehicles. Again, they're not refiners and have no use for raw crude. It's the oil refiners that buy futures in crude. Well, them and speculators.
It doesn't matter. Airlines absolutely buy crude futures to hedge against changes in fuel cost. It might be impossible to buy futures in the exact good you need, or it might be too expensive due to illiquidity and slippage.
It's like how beer manufacturers buy aluminum futures even though they almost never take delivery on the futures. They're just going to buy the processed aluminum from their regular processed aluminum supplier, but they can still hedge some of the price changes with the easily available physical aluminum futures.
I am playing my second tiniest violin for them right now.
(I'm curious who the tiniest one is for)
That said, there is an issue here with futures contracts: you can get very very large leverage when the price is near zero. This is the real issue with instruments that can negative price and just like their are “circuit breakers” in markets for big price swings, there should be breakers for entering the “near zero” range.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you get into the market for physically settled contracts with no intention of taking delivery, then you're almost certainly a speculator. I'm not sure that it's the market's job to make that safer for you. I am not justifying inaccurate pricing. Burning speculators is fine, but give everyone accurate information.
> If you get into the market for physically settled contracts with no intention of taking delivery, then you're almost certainly a speculator. Hard disagree. There are lots of reasons people with legitimate hedging concerns who don't intend to take physical delivery prefer the physical contract to a CSC (if it's even available).