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Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

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71–80 of 182 posts

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#71
If you look at the CME website using the wayback machine, you can clearly see a hi and low limit for the price. There is no high limit, but the low limit is set at "0.01". [1] This is kind of weird, because the snapshot is pulling current market prices, and still showing an incorrect hi/lo limit. It looks like they have since removed the hi/lo display: [2]. Someone should take a screenshot of this.

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20200117115242/https://www.cmegr...

[2] https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-swee...

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#72
post #55

> Peterffy said there’s a problem with how exchanges design their contracts because the trading dries up as they near expiration. The May oil futures contract -- the one that went negative -- expired the day after the historic plunge, so most of the market had moved to trading the June contract, which expires May 19 and currently trades around $24 a barrel. > “That’s how it’s possible for these contracts to go absolu…

> It’s pretty well known that commodity futures contracts are a game of hot potato Very much so. I wrote software for financial traders in the 1990s, and I heard tell of a couple of clerks (in this context, sort of "trader intern") who thought they were smart enough to do a little commodity metal trading on the side. However, they didn't quite understand the details of contract expiration, and so supposedly they ende…

There are contracts that specify physical delivery, but they also specify the warehouse or storage facility the commodity will be delivered to. The buyer can either collect the commodity or pay the storage facility to hold it for them. It's not likely it would be delivered to someone's house unexpectedly, because someone would need to pay for the additional cost of transportation.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#73
post #55

> Peterffy said there’s a problem with how exchanges design their contracts because the trading dries up as they near expiration. The May oil futures contract -- the one that went negative -- expired the day after the historic plunge, so most of the market had moved to trading the June contract, which expires May 19 and currently trades around $24 a barrel. > “That’s how it’s possible for these contracts to go absolu…

> It’s pretty well known that commodity futures contracts are a game of hot potato Very much so. I wrote software for financial traders in the 1990s, and I heard tell of a couple of clerks (in this context, sort of "trader intern") who thought they were smart enough to do a little commodity metal trading on the side. However, they didn't quite understand the details of contract expiration, and so supposedly they ende…

That's fake. Delivery doesn't work that way. The contract will specify one or a few acceptable delivery locations, always some industrial shipping depot or something.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#74
post #65

Wasn't the original purpose of futures to let farmers and others lock in prices early so they can mitigate risk? Speculation on futures seems dumb if you have no intention of taking delivery.

A lot of businesses are impacted by the price of oil even if they don’t directly take delivery. It serves as a really valuable hedge for airlines for example, where it’s a key cost driver, even if it has to go through a refinery first.

You don't need to trade a physically settled contract for that though! Just hedge on a cash basis or hedge directly on the item you do need delivery on.

Seriously, do people enter into contracts like this in other parts of their life?

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cash settled contracts exist. These people just chose not to buy them. The question is how to structure physically settled contracts. After all, oil needs to get delivered to someone at some point.

If you get into the market for physically settled contracts with no intention of taking delivery, then you're almost certainly a speculator. I'm not sure that it's the market's job to make that safer for you. I am not justifying inaccurate pricing. Burning speculators is fine, but give everyone accurate information.

> If you get into the market for physically settled contracts with no intention of taking delivery, then you're almost certainly a speculator.

Hard disagree. There are lots of reasons people with legitimate hedging concerns who don't intend to take physical delivery prefer the physical contract to a CSC (if it's even available).

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#76
post #59
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s pretty well known that commodity futures contracts are a game of hot potato Very much so. I wrote software for financial traders in the 1990s, and I heard tell of a couple of clerks (in this context, sort of "trader intern") who thought they were smart enough to do a little commodity metal trading on the side. However, they didn't quite understand the details of contract expiration, and so supposedly they ende…

Sounds apocryphal.

Could be! It was definitely a friend-of-a-friend territory. But often legends of failure are used to warn against real dangers. Little Red Riding Hood is surely fictional, but wolves in the woods definitely weren't.

And at least in Chicago in the 1990s, traders and clerks could definitely be wild. During slow periods on the CME floor somebody would get a transparent trash bag, declare it a $20 bag, and then walk around with it. People would write their names on $20s and throw them in. Once they'd made the rounds, they'd shake the bag and have somebody draw from it. I myself saw thousands of dollars change hands like this. And clerks would regularly bet one another about jumping into the Chicago river from Upper Wacker, which is a fair drop.

Or there was one incident that was witnessed by a couple of our traders, as it happened in their pit at the CBOT. One afternoon among all the colored coats, they see somebody in a polar bear costume walking around the trading floor between the pits. One trader turns to another and says, "I'll pay you $100 if you punch the polar bear." The trader thinks about it, takes the $100, goes over, lays out the polar bear, and then in the chaos goes back to his pit. This turned out to be a bad trade, as the polar bear was there as a fundraiser for the Lincoln Park Zoo, and one of the people on the zoo's board was also on the exchange's board. Oops!

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#77
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or possibly someone who needs large amounts of oil and want to hedge against fluctuations? Freight industry, airliner, etc.

Airlines buy futures in Jet A or Jet A-1. They have no interest in crude oil because they aren't refiners and they have nothing to do with it. The freight industry will similarly buy futures in bunker fuel, diesel, or whatever exactly they use to fuel their vehicles. Again, they're not refiners and have no use for raw crude. It's the oil refiners that buy futures in crude. Well, them and speculators.

> Airlines buy futures in Jet A or Jet A-1. They have no interest in crude oil

It doesn't matter. Airlines absolutely buy crude futures to hedge against changes in fuel cost. It might be impossible to buy futures in the exact good you need, or it might be too expensive due to illiquidity and slippage.

It's like how beer manufacturers buy aluminum futures even though they almost never take delivery on the futures. They're just going to buy the processed aluminum from their regular processed aluminum supplier, but they can still hedge some of the price changes with the easily available physical aluminum futures.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#79
Fuck IB and this “trader”, idiots should lose their shirts, that’s one of the intended outcomes of an efficient market.

That said, there is an issue here with futures contracts: you can get very very large leverage when the price is near zero. This is the real issue with instruments that can negative price and just like their are “circuit breakers” in markets for big price swings, there should be breakers for entering the “near zero” range.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you get into the market for physically settled contracts with no intention of taking delivery, then you're almost certainly a speculator. I'm not sure that it's the market's job to make that safer for you. I am not justifying inaccurate pricing. Burning speculators is fine, but give everyone accurate information.

> If you get into the market for physically settled contracts with no intention of taking delivery, then you're almost certainly a speculator. Hard disagree. There are lots of reasons people with legitimate hedging concerns who don't intend to take physical delivery prefer the physical contract to a CSC (if it's even available).

Would you list some of those reasons, instead of just making the bare assertion?
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